NFL conference championships Q&A: What are the odds …?

Alec Brzezinski

NFL conference championships Q&A: What are the odds …? image

In the aftermath of the Vikings' stunning divisional win over the Saints, Minnesota quarterback Case Keenum is just a win away from earning a trip to the Super Bowl.

Keenum, a backup behind Sam Bradford when the season started, has enjoyed a breakout season leading the Vikings to an NFC North title. It looked as if the Vikings were going to blow their 17-0 halftime lead Sunday against the Saints, but Keenum threw a touchdown as time expired to win.

Now, Keenum and the Vikings head to Philadelphia to face an Eagles team (6:40 p.m. ET, Fox) also using a quarterback who manned a clipboard to start the season.

So … what are the odds Keenum has another miracle in him?

Minnesota is 6-1 on the road since Week 5, tied for the best road record of any team in that time. However, it is just 6-16 all-time in postseason road games and hasn't won a playoff road game since a 31-17 victory at Green Bay in 2004.

Keenum threw for 318 yards last week, the fourth most he has ever thrown for in a single game. It was also the third-most for a Vikings quarterback in the postseason. His ability to stretch a defense, matched with the Vikings' growing array of talent at wide receiver makes them tough to defend.

The Eagles will counter with Alshon Jeffery and Jay Ajayi. Jeffery has caught seven touchdown passes against the Vikings in his career, and Ajayi has grasped the lead-back role in Philadelphia.

While both teams have endured injuries, they have enough talent to reach the Super Bowl. But the Vikings are more well-rounded, and the football gods appear to be on their side. Keenum has strong odds of winning this week, and he might not even need another miracle.

Jaguars-Patriots graphic

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Speaking of wild finishes, the Jaguars treated fans to an interesting start to their game last week, jumping out to a quick 21-0 lead over the Steelers. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey already has promised a Super Bowl victory, raising the eyebrows of Patriots players.

Now things get tougher at New England (3:05 p.m., CBS).

The Patriots have a 10-1 record all-time when facing the Jaguars (including the playoffs), their  lone loss in 1999 at Jacksonville in the AFC wild-card round.

So … what are the odds the Jaguars can actually upset the Patriots?

Jacksonville has scored eight defensive touchdowns this season (including the playoffs), the most in the NFL and as many as the 11 teams that had one or fewer defensive touchdowns this season.

Unfortunately for the Jaguars, Tom Brady doesn't have a penchant for turnovers. Brady, who is nursing a hand injury, has just 17 interceptions in the last three regular seasons. The Jags' best asset may not have as much value this week.

Brady threw for 337 yards last week, the most by a quarterback in his 40s in a playoff game. He also became the oldest quarterback to win a playoff game, proving he's still an elite competitor.

The emergence of Danny Amendola (11 catches last week) and success of Rob Gronkowski provide tough matchup problems even for Jacksonville's quick, athletic defense.

Blake Bortles played well last week, orchestrating a massive upset, but he's still not trustworthy. The Jaguars likely will have to score (a lot) again this week, and the odds are against them managing that against the Patriots' underrated defense.

Alec Brzezinski