Oddsmakers see Seahawks, Vikings as live underdogs
After going on the road and winning on wild-card weekend, the Seahawks and Vikings are getting plenty of respect from sportsbooks. Seattle was the most popular team we have seen in the first round of the playoffs in over a decade, as an estimated 78 percent of bettors backed the Seahawks. That public love led to the oddsmakers making Seattle the shortest underdog of the NFL's divisional round games, per the NFL betting odds, yet that hasn’t turned people off the Seahawks, and they are the most popular pick this week.
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Minnesota was the biggest underdog of wild-card weekend. The Vikings were as much as 8.5-point underdogs against the Saints last week, but they closed at +7 after a bevy of sharp money came in on Minnesota last Sunday. Their impressive win over the Saints in the Crescent City has some pundits believing they can beat the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC, so they are currently getting just seven points on the road against San Francisco.
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San Francisco 49ers (-7) vs. Minnesota Vikings, O/U 44
This line has hovered around seven points since opening on Sunday night. We’ve seen the spread drop to 49ers -6.5 and rise to Vikings +7.5, so sportsbooks are hoping that the line doesn’t land right on seven. That would lead to a bloodbath since seven is such a key number.
We have seen consistent action on the under. The total for this game opened at 45, and it has dropped to 44 without any buyback along the way. That’s a little curious if you’re a trend bettor as both San Francisco and Minnesota have seen most of their games go over the total this season.
Betting trends
Minnesota’s victory over New Orleans last week was a surprise for more than a few reasons. The Vikings have not fared well against good teams in recent history, posting a 5-14 ATS record in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. That doesn’t seem to bode well for them, but San Francisco has an even worse track record as a home favorite. The 49ers are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite.
This game has the lowest total of any of the four Divisional Round games, and recent history indicates the under might be a good play too. The under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two teams, and the under has cashed in 12 of Minnesota’s last 17 games against NFC opponents.
Green Bay Packers (-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks, O/U 47
We haven’t seen any movement on the spread in this game as it has remained solid at Green Bay -4 since it opened on Sunday night. Both Green Bay and Seattle are a little bit overhyped considering their advanced metrics, and both teams would be underdogs of at least four points per the NFL betting odds against San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game.
There has been movement on the total though. Although it will be cold in Lambeau Field on Sunday afternoon, the elements aren’t expected to interfere with this game, helping the total rise from 46 to 47 early in the week.
Betting trends
Seattle is the most popular play this week, and the Seahawks have continually paid off for bettors in recent years. They are 34-16-3 ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog per the football betting odds, and they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a road underdog. However, Seattle has failed to cover the spread in any of its last six trips to Lambeau Field.
As for the Packers, this team has continually risen to the occasion with a 7-1 ATS mark in its last eight games against teams with winning records. The one time they failed to cover was on the road against San Francisco back in late November, but Green Bay easily covered the number on the road against Kansas City and Minnesota, winning outright in both games.