Ravens, Chiefs heavy favorites to meet in the AFC championship game
We saw three road teams pull off upsets in the NFL's wild-card games, but the oddsmakers think it is very unlikely we see a repeat of that in the divisional round. While there were three spreads of five points or less over wild-card weekend, there is only one spread under a touchdown in the divisional round this weekend, and the betting odds for both AFC games could close in the double digits.
Houston and Tennessee each have odds of more than 10-1 to win the AFC and advance to the Super Bowl, but those teams both have reason to believe they can win this weekend.
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Baltimore Ravens (-10) vs. Tennessee Titans, O/U 46.5
The Ravens opened as 10-point favorites at home against the Titans this Saturday night. Baltimore is the current favorite to win it all, per the Super Bowl betting odds, but the early action came in on Tennessee. This line was bet all the way down to Baltimore -8.5 before recovering to where it opened as teaser bettors jumped at the chance to cross four key numbers with the Ravens. Given the early line movement, this line is expected to move into the single digits once again prior to kickoff.
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There has been plenty of movement on the total in this game too. The over/under originally opened at 48.5, but we have seen steady action on the under. Some believe that Lamar Jackson won’t have the same success he had all throughout the regular season in the cold weather, and Ryan Tannehill didn’t make any new fans with his passing numbers against New England. Tannehill averaged just 4.8 YPA against the Patriots last Saturday.
Betting trends
Tennessee turned around it season by benching Marcus Mariota in favor of Tannehill, so it’s no shock that the Titans are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against AFC opponents. They have covered in each of their last five road games, and the over has cashed in nine of their last 11 games as this offense has been rejuvenated with Tannehill.
Under has been a great bet in Baltimore games. The under has cashed in each of the last six games where the Ravens were favored in the playoffs, and the under is 5-2 in the last seven games in which Baltimore was a road favorite. We’ve also seen the under be the right side in eight of the last 12 games between Baltimore and Tennessee.
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Houston Texans, O/U 51
Oddsmakers gave Houston a little too much credit after its comeback win over Buffalo when the line opened for this game on Saturday night. The Texans were initially just an eight-point underdog on the road against Kansas City, but that line quickly ballooned to 10 points within a few hours of opening.
Although Houston went into Arrowhead Stadium and beat the Chiefs earlier in the season, the Texans were lifeless for most of that game against the Bills, and that performance coupled with how Kansas City looked over the last month of the season led to a surge of Kansas City money.
This is the only game with a total in the 50s in the Divisional Round. The total opened at 49, but bettors quickly jumped on the over since Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson are involved, raising this line two points. This game will be played outdoors in Kansas City, but weather is not expected to be a factor with current forecasts calling for the temperature to be in the mid-30s.
Betting trends
The road team has covered the spread in six of the last seven meetings between these two teams. Houston was 5-2-1 ATS on the road this season, so that bodes well for those looking to take the Texans and the points. Additionally, Andy Reid’s playoff struggles have continued in Kansas City, and the Chiefs are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 playoff games. One of those wins was the most impressive playoff victory of Reid’s time in Kansas City though as the Chiefs thrashed the Texans 30-0 in Houston four years ago in the Wild Card Round.
This total has moved up, but recent history suggests the under will hit. The under is 4-1 in Kansas City’s last five home playoff games, and the under has cashed in seven of Houston’s last ten games too.