Expert NFL Picks: Week 1 Predictions & Spread Picks From TeamRankings

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Expert NFL Picks: Week 1 Predictions & Spread Picks From TeamRankings image

With the 2018 NFL season just days away, our prediction models have been hard at work crunching the numbers on every NFL game. Before we get to some Week 1 NFL picks and previews, though, we'll share a quick overview of how we use math and data to predict the NFL.

This analysis is brought to you by TeamRankings.com, a site now in its 15th year of publishing data-driven NFL predictions. To help you get an edge this NFL season, they offer premium NFL Betting Picks, NFL Survivor Pool Picks, and NFL Pick 'em Contest Picks.

For a limited time, Sporting News readers can get a free TeamRankings All-Access subscription for NFL Week 1. It includes all TeamRankings premium football content, such as NFL game winner and spread picks, end-of-season predictions for every team, and customized picks for your NFL survivor pools and pick 'em contests.

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What Makes Us NFL Experts?

"Expert" is kind of an arrogant word to throw around, and in our opinion, it's used a little too frequently these days when describing people who make NFL picks. Follow the picks of some of these so-called experts for long enough, and you will realize that just because someone used to play in the NFL and is now an analyst on TV doesn't mean they can make consistently accurate predictions for future games.

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But if those people are calling themselves experts, then we'll throw our hat into the ring because we can actually point to independent research that shows our NFL predictions have been some of the most accurate around -- here's some proof and more proof.

Every expert has a specialty. We focus on large-scale data analysis and predictive modeling. We gather thousands of stats on NFL teams and players and use that objective data to power algorithms that predict individual games (and, by extension, the entire NFL season). Our analytics team includes a Mathematical & Computational Science major from Stanford; a neuroscientist from Johns Hopkins; and another Stanford grad who studied physics and is now a rocket scientist (literally) by day. They all love football almost as much as they love math.

How We Make NFL Picks

We have created several computer models that each use a different mathematical approach to making NFL game predictions. We combine the outputs of these models in intelligent ways to generate picks for every game -- a method that analytics geeks refer to as "ensemble forecasting." Using multiple models helps overcome the particular blind spots that any one particular model is bound to have.

Here's a few of the predictive models that we've developed and currently use: 

  • Predictive Power Ratings Model. Creates a quantitative rating for each team based on margins of victory, adjusted for opponent strength and game location. Comparing the ratings of two teams determines the predicted winner and expected margin of victory.
  • Similar Games Model. Identifies historical matchups that are statistically similar to the game you want to predict. The final scores of the most similar historical games drive predictions for the future game.
  • Decision Tree Model. Uses a machine-learning algorithm to analyze performance trends in sophisticated ways. Juicy sounding trends -- e.g. "Teams coming off a home win on Monday night against an NFC opponent with a losing record are 15-5 in their last 20 games!" and such -- are often simply the result of randomness and not actually predictive. This model identifies complex, non-obvious trends that are meaningful.

Week 1 NFL Picks & Predictions

Now that you're familiar with our approach, let's get to some picks and model predictions for NFL Week 1. We'll dive into three specific matchups in this post, but remember you can get our predictions for all NFL and college football games by signing up for the season or trying out our free Week 1 trial.

Important Note: All predictions and betting lines below are as of Monday morning and may change before kickoff time on account of betting line movement or other new data becoming available to our models.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns Picks

Week 1 will be the 132nd playing of the Turnpike Rivalry between Pittsburgh and Cleveland, of which the Steelers have won six straight. Pittsburgh enters the year as one of the favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, while the Browns also have high hopes thanks to significant offseason additions that included Tyrod Taylor, Carlos Hyde, Jarvis Landry, and a host of talented draft choices. One other intriguing story added to this rivalry is Browns offensive coordinator Todd Haley, who took over in Cleveland after being let go by the Steelers this offseason.

There’s a common perception that Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger plays worse on the road, but the Steelers still managed to go 7-1 away from Heinz Field last season and 13-5 over the past two years. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Steelers try to test a Browns secondary that has several newcomers, including Denzel Ward, Terrance Mitchell, E.J. Gaines, and Damarious Randall -- especially given that Cleveland’s run defense was its biggest strength last year, allowing only 3.4 yards per carry (second best in NFL). Additionally, Le’Veon Bell could have some rust after sitting out training camp again -- if he even returns from his holdout this week. Bell had only 32 yards rushing in Week 1 at Cleveland last year after holding out from training camp.

Meanwhile, the key for Cleveland on offense is likely to establish the run and avoid turnovers. The Steelers struggled against the run last season, particularly after losing Ryan Shazier (4.4 yards per carry allowed, fifth worst in NFL), and it remains to be seen if the addition of Jon Bostic will be enough to fill that void. Running the ball should also help protect Taylor from the ferocious Steelers pass rush that finished tops in sack percentage last year (9.8 percent). For all of Taylor’s blemishes, he hasn't turned the ball over much, with a league-best 1.0 percent interception rate last year and 1.3 percent over the past three seasons.

Power Ratings Prediction: Pittsburgh, 75.4 percent win odds

Similar Games Prediction: Pittsburgh, 66.7 percent win odds

Decision Tree Prediction: Pittsburgh, 69.7 percent win odds

TeamRankings Spread Pick: Cleveland +5.5, 54.5 percent confidence

Want these objective predictions for every NFL game? Sign up for the season or try our free Week 1 trial.

NY Jets at Detroit Lions Picks

Third overall draft choice Sam Darnold is expected to get the nod as the Jets starting quarterback. He faces a team in the NFC, but Patriots defensive coordinator turned Lions head coach Matt Patricia has plenty of familiarity with the Jets offense.

Darnold isn’t the only new player that New York features on offense this season. Isaiah Crowell has come over from Cleveland to share running back duties with Bilal Powell, and the Jets also have No. 3 wideout Quincy Enunwa back from injury. The Lions defense ranked in the middle of the pack or worse in nearly every category except for takeaways (where they were second overall) in 2017, and have a new pair of veteran outside linebackers.

Despite the coaching change, offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter remains a holdover from Jim Caldwell’s staff. Matthew Stafford has performed well under Cooter over the past two years, peaking at 7.9 yards per attempt last season. While the Lions have lost tight end Eric Ebron, the solid wideout trio of Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, and Kenny Golladay remains. The team also selected running back Kerryon Johnson in the second round of the draft and signed LeGarrette Blount to try to come up with some semblance of a running game after ranking dead last in yards per carry (3.4) and rushing yards per game (76.3) last season.

After rushing the ball only 37 percent of the time last year, it will be interesting to see if Cooter uses more balanced play calling early this season.

Power Ratings Prediction: Detroit, 73.6 percent win odds

Similar Games Prediction: Detroit, 70.1 percent win odds

Decision Tree Prediction: Detroit, 73.5 percent win odds

TeamRankings Spread Pick: NY Jets +6.5, 58.5 percent confidence

Want these objective predictions for every NFL game? Sign up for the season or try our free Week 1 trial.

Kansas City Chiefs at LA Chargers Picks

The Patrick Mahomes era in Kansas City is set to begin. After beating Denver last year in Week 17, Mahomes became the first quarterback the Chiefs drafted to win a game for the team since Todd Blackledge in 1983. It’s an understatement to say that fans are excited for him to replace Alex Smith. Mahomes posted video game-like numbers at Texas Tech, capping off his college career with more than 5,000 yards passing and 41 touchdowns in 2016, and he has a chance to put up big numbers in KC with a group of impressive weapons that include Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Sammy Watkins.

There is reason to be concerned that Mahomes’ arrival will hurt the team’s ball security, however, given his struggles with picks in training camp and Smith’s amazingly low 33 interceptions in 2,436 pass attempts over the past five seasons. KC has won eight in a row vs. the Chargers and has most recently thrashed the Chargers on the ground with Hunt (327 yards in two games), so don’t be surprised if the team leans on him again to take the pressure off Mahomes in the season opener.

Meanwhile, the Chargers are the Vegas favorite pick to win the AFC West in 2018 after improving to 9-7 last year. Much attention is paid to veteran quarterback Philip Rivers, but the Chargers' defense was the biggest reason for their success last year, ranking No. 1 in the NFL with only 17.0 points allowed per game.

Rivers was effective with 7.9 yards per pass attempt in 2017, and the hope is that second-year wideout Mike Williams and the return of Antonio Gates can offset the loss of injured tight end Hunter Henry. The Chargers will likely challenge a Chiefs secondary that struggled during the preseason, especially if safety Eric Berry is unable to play due to a heel injury.

Power Ratings Prediction: LA Chargers, 68.4 percent win odds

Similar Games Prediction: LA Chargers, 50.8 percent win odds (outlier!)

Decision Tree Prediction: LA Chargers, 61.5 percent win odds

TeamRankings Spread Pick: Kansas City +3, 53.8 percent confidence

Want these objective predictions for every NFL game? Sign up for the season or try our free Week 1 trial.

Remember that in addition to our NFL betting picks, we can help you get an edge if you're playing in a football pool this year. In 2017, our subscribers won over $1 million in prize money in NFL survivor pools, and 81 percent reported winning a weekly or season prize in an NFL pick 'em contest. See our NFL Survivor Picks, and NFL Pick 'em Picks.

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