Week 3 brought more clarity about the identity and reliability for all 32 teams in the NFL, but that doesn't mean the picks and predictions against spread get any easier for Week 4. This week offers one massive spread but mostly contests that look like one-possession games.
Although there are five undefeated teams and five winless teams, there also are 22 teams in between with little separation. That should make for some more interesting action.
Here's how Sporting News is navigating through all the numbers for another full slate of 16 matchups:
(Game odds courtesy of FanDuel )
NFL POWER RANKINGS:
Rams overtake Buccaneers at No. 1; 49ers, Chiefs, Steelers fall big for Week 4
NFL picks against the spread for Week 4
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Game of the Week: Cardinals at Rams (-4, 54.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
Here are two of those 3-0 teams, tied for first place in the loaded NFC West. The Cardinals are sizzling on offense with Kyler Murray; the Rams are doing it in a different big-play way with Matthew Stafford. Expect a shootout with diverse weapons and deep shots. The Rams have a little more defensive impact here with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey than the Cards have with Chanlder Jones and J.J. Watt.
Pick: Rams win 31-27 and cover the spread.
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Game of Midweek: Jaguars at Bengals (-7.5, 46.5 o/u)
Thursday 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network
The Jaguars drafted Trevor Lawrence No. 1 overall following the Bengals taking Joe Burrow No. 1 overall. Burrow looks the part of a long-term franchise quarterback and Lawrence is getting there. Cincinnati has been one of the nice early-season surprises with its dangerous well-rounded offense and upgraded defense. The Jags show some more fight on a short week as Urban Meyer returns to Ohio, but the former Buckeye Burrow's better support allows him to stay a score ahead of Lawrence.
Pick: Bengals win 27-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Result: Bengals win 24-21 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE: Biggest winners and losers from NFL's Week 3
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Rivalry of the Week: Raiders at Chargers (-3, 51.5 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Raiders are overachieving with high passing volume from Derek Carr. Their defense has played over its head but it still has key lapses. that doesn't bode well for facing red-hot Justin Herbert and the Chargers. They have more top-flight impact receivers and a better overall defense on every level, which is forcing key takeaways early for Brandon Staley. The Chargers hand the Raiders their first loss and move into first place with Joey Bosa and others cleaning up well on Carr.
Pick: Chargers win 24-20 and cover the spread.
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Lock of the Week: Buccaneers (-7, 49.5 o/u) over Patriots
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
You may have heard that Tom Brady is returning to New England with his new Super Bowl champions. Although Brady vs. Bill Belichick is the marquee attraction, this is more about the Bucs being a superior overall team, save for their injury-depleted secondary. They will stop the run and pressure Mac Jones, while the Patriots can take away only one or two of Brady's myriad weapons. Brady makes sure Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown (if healthy) also have plenty of fun as ex-Pats. It's about time they could live free and party in Foxborough as ringed champions.
Pick: Buccaneers win 38-10 and cover the spread.
MORE: Why Patriots have zero chance to beat Tom Brady, Buccaneers in revenge game
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Upset of the Week: Colts (+1.5, 42 o/u) over Dolphins
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Colts are looking for their first win after going 11-5 last season. The Dolphins are 1-2 after just missing the playoffs at 10-6 last season. Indianapolis gets a break facing a limited offense led by former Colt Jacoby Brissett and a bad run defense that plays to its strength with Jonathan Taylor and the offensive line, even without Quenton Nelson. Desperation will make sure the Colts get in the win column.
Pick: Colts win 20-17.
MORE: Which 2020 NFL playoff teams are in trouble after Week 3?
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Washington Football Team (-1.5, 47.5 o/u) at Falcons
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
WFT's offense and defense ran into a buzzsaw in Buffalo. Handling Atlanta is a lot more favorable as the hosts cannot stop the primary playmaking trio of Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas. Washington's defense wakes up in the pass rush vs. Matt Ryan and has enough secondary strength to contain his top targets. The Falcons go back to flopping again with questionable protection and a lost all-around defense at home.
Pick: Washington wins 30-24 and covers the spread
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Lions at Bears (-3, 41.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Lions have had chances to win all three of their games. The Bears are trying to figure out quarterback between Justin Fields, Andy Dalton and Nick Foles. Detroit is making just enough mistakes to fall short of winning. Chicago is doing what it can to win games with defense, and should keep it simple with more of David Montgomery in the running game. Matt Nagy and his team need this win badly and get it.
Pick: Bears win 23-17 and cover the spread.
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Titans at Jets (-6.5, 44.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Titans used to be called the Oilers. The Jets used to be called the Titans. Going from Nashville to New Jersey, Tennessee will own that name with plenty of Derrick Henry setting up a hot Ryan Tannehill. Zach Wilson get a welcome respite from a tough defensive stretch to have his best rookei game yet. But even some big plays from former Titans wide receiver Corey Davis won't be enough.
Pick: Titans win 31-22 and cover the spread.
MORE: NFL rookie QB grades for Week 3
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Browns (-2.5, 51.5 o/u) at Vikings
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Former Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski returns to Minnesota with a similar run-heavy game plan setting up high-percentage passing for Baker Mayfield. Stefanski was responsible, too for getting Kirk Cousins back on track. This mirror-image game is a close one to call but Cleveland is the better team, especially with the defense coming on strong. Look for Odell Beckham Jr. to get in on the big-play fun so that Mayfield can outduel Cousins and Minnesota's special wideouts.
Pick: Browns win 30-27 and cover the spread.
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Panthers at Cowboys (-4.5, 51.5 o/u)
The 3-0 Panthers have had a great defensive start, supported by solid QB play from Sam Darnold. Without Christian McCaffrey and Jaycee Horn, they don't have the game-changing offensive cog or enough coverage punch vs. Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys will test that D in Big D with a wide range of pass plays to exploit the best matchups. Darnold won't quite be able to outdeul a dealing Dak.
Pick: Cowboys win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
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Giants at Saints (-7, 41.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Giants wasted a big opportunity for a first victory against the Falcons. Saquon Barkley is back up and running at his usual high level, but more injuries have befallen the receiving corps around up-and-down Daniel Jones. The Saints are 2-1 on the back of innovative run-oriented offense from Sean Payton. Their defense is playing active and inspired, which will continue in the Superdome opener. New Orleans does it for Archie and Eli in an emotional victory for the fan base.
Pick: Saints win 23-13 and cover the spread.
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Chiefs (-7, 54.5 o/u) at Eagles
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Chiefs return to where ailing coach Andy Reid almost won his first Super Bowl. The Eagles are coming off a short week but have the running game and unique receivers to move the ball well on Kansas City as Jalen Hurts is up for a shootout with Patrick Mahomes. It takes a little Mahomes magic to finally escape with victory in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Chiefs win 31-27 but fail to cover the spread.
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Texans at Bills (-17.5, 47 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bills threw down on Washington and the Texans are stuck with Davis Mills at quarterback and not much else on offense against a Bills defense that's become nasty on most levels. Numbers don't get bigger than that for one-win team vs. one-loss team this early. Tyrod Taylor will miss this revenge game and Buffalo will be in control wire to wire with Josh Allen.
Pick: Bills win 35-17 and cover the spread.
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Seahawks at 49ers (-2.5, 52.5 o/u)
The Seahawks' defense looks lost and confused. The 49ers also are struggling for solid secondary play with mounting injuries. Both teams should be able to do what they want offensively with Russell Wilson and Jimmy Garoppolo (with another side of Trey Lance). The Seahawks can run a little better with Chris Carson and Wilson will find the right favorable matchups for DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett for one or two big plays. Seattle gets a little desperate on the road to not fall back further in the NFC West, while San Francisco has a mild hangover from the finish of the Green Bay game.
Pick: Seahawks win 34-31.
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Ravens (-1, 44.5 o/u) at Broncos
The Broncos are 3-0 thanks to playing a trio fo teams that all are 0-3. The Ravens have been sloppy defensively but getting better. Lamar Jackson is playing well when protected and getting the required help from his receivers. Look for Grag Roman to get of Vic Fangio with the right mix of running, wide receiver and tight end Mark Andrews. Teddy Bridgewater keeps playing well, but Baltimore's defense gets more on track to take a low-scoring battle of attrition.
Pick: Ravens win 23-20 and cover the spread.
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Steelers at Packers (-6.5, 45.5)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
These teams met in Super Bowl 45 with Aaron Rodgers outdueling Ben Roethlisberger in Dallas. Rodgers is still performing at a high level more than a decade later while Big Ben is on his last legs (and one weak right arm). The Packers get a break with a shaky Steelers' offensive line and possible key wide receiver injuries. Joe Barry's defense can do plenty to contain Najee Harris. Rodgers will torch Pittsburgh's defense in the slot at times with Davante Adams and also hit on some more big pass plays.
Pick: Packers win 24-13 and cover the spread.
Vinnie Iyer's 2021 picks:
- Week 3 record against the spread: 8-7
- Week 3 record straight up: 9-6
- Season ATS: 21-26
- Season straight up: 28-19
