Being early at everything is always an advantage. That's no different when jumping on early odds and betting lines for Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season.
Although there's a good amount of data out there on a lot of teams, a new year of action means having no previous recent history, which can create some numeric possibilities to exploit. Sporting News will revisit the picks against the spread for Week 1 closer to the opening kickoff times, but here are our best predictions in advance:
MORE: Updated odds, totals, and spreads for Week 1
(Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction)
2021 NFL RANKINGS: QBs | RBs | WRs | GMs | Head coaches
NFL picks against the spread for Week 1
-
Game of the Week: Browns at Chiefs (-6, 53.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
When these teams last met, it was in the 2020 AFC divisional playoffs. The Chiefs built a 19-3 halftime lead but after losing Patrick Mahomes to a concussion, had to hold on for a 22-19 escape on their way to Super Bowl 55. The Browns are still thinking about what could have been and after a wild-card win, are looking for much more with greater expectations for this season. Cleveland can keep it close again with more explosive offense with Baker Mayfield and more disruptive defense with Myles Garrett. Kansas City stays in control to take the rematch, closing it out with an improved running game.
Pick: Chiefs win 27-23. Under and Browns cover.
-
Game of Midweek: Cowboys at Buccaneers (-7.5, 51 o/u)
Thursday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Buccaneers will be amped to celebrate their Super Bowl 55 ring to start the season. Tom Brady returns to a powerhouse that didn't lose any key players from last season and will go to work against an overhauled Cowboys defense, led by former Falcons coach Dan Quinn. Dallas has another big question mark right away regarding the health of Dak Prescott with mystery about his shoulder injury. The visitors have plenty of firepower, too, but Tampa Bay will turn them away in key spots, flexing again on all three defensive levels.
Pick: Buccaneers win 34-24. Over and Bucs cover.
-
Lock of the Week: 49ers (-7.5, 44.5 o/u) over Lions
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The 49ers are set to stick with Jimmy Garoppolo as their starting QB at first over rookie Trey Lance, but it doesn't matter who's under center for the opener. The Lions' rebuilding defense cannot handle either San Francisco's dynamic running game or dangerous passing game with mismatches Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. The Niners will be eager to start fast after last year's injury-riddled mess and are road warriors under Kyle Shanahan. Dan Campbell's return to coaching is rough, indicating a long season, while former Rams QB Jared Goff relives nightmares against a familiar defense.
Pick: 49ers win 34-13. Over and 49ers cover
-
Upset of the Week: Bengals over Vikings (-3, 48 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
The Vikings are overrated going into the season. The Bengals are underrated. Joe Burrow should be back to lift Cincinnati in the home opener, also helping former LSU teammate Ja'Marr Chase shaky off some preseason issues. Both defenses have some talent, but there also are transitional aspects and lingering weaknesses. The Vikings will try to run often and win with Dalvin Cook, but this will turn into a sneaky shootout with Burrow spreading the field well and out-dueling Kirk Cousins.
Pick: Bengals win 27-24. Over and Bengals cover.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
The Jaguars have all the buzz with their rookie Clemson QB, Trevor Lawrence. The Texans have all the bad vibes with uncertainty over their veteran Clemson QB, Deshaun Watson. Urban Meyer is a much more accomplished coach making his debut than David Culley. Jacksonville will able to run well and set up favorable passing for Lawrence against a shell of a Houston defense. The Jags' defense will overachieve for their new-look scheme and steal one while they can.
Pick: Jaguars win 27-24. Over and push.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
The Chargers should feel confident about rookie coach Brandon Staley leading their new defense and second-year QB Justin Herbert being comfortable in the new offense. Home vs. away doesn't mean much for them considering their L.A. play. Washington has a similar profile with Ron Rivera and bridge QB Ryan Fitzpatrick distributing to dynamic weapons. This is a classic toss-up, but the Chargers will have a little more juice and energy in a slugfest as Joey Bosa gets more support than Chase Young.
Pick: Chargers win 20-17. Under and Chargers cover.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
The Seahawks are another strong road team from the West Coast and there's no time adjustment issues in Week 1. The Colts feel good about both Carson Wentz and Quenton Nelson being available to anchor their offense in the opener. But it's still Russell Wilson in a new-look offense under Shane Waldron on the other side and he should be the more trustworthy QB with established elite weapons. Wilson can help Seattle support the running game better than a rusty Wentz will do for Indianapolis, with Jamal Adams cleaning up late to live up to his contract.
Pick: Seahawks win 23-17. Under and Seahawks cover.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Zach Wilson is an upgrade at quarterback over Sam Darnold. But the Jets' rookie QB has more unknown quantities around him offensively in a new scheme. That will make things challenging in a road debut against a rising young Panthers defense. Darnold will have an easier day at the office against his former team, thanks to Christian McCaffrey returning healthy to carry the complementary offense.
Pick: Panthers win 24-17. Under and Panthers cover.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
The Cardinals and Titans had various run defense issues last season. Some of those will be cleaned up, but this game will live up to the high-scoring hype with Kyler Murray and Derrick Henry as the centerpieces. Arizona has more impact players to contain Ryan Tannehill and Tennessee's play-action based passing game, while Tennessee will struggle on the back end vs. DeAndre Hopkins, a rejuvenated A.J. Green and others. J.J. Watt ensures his new team doesn't lose against a familiar AFC South foe.
Pick: Cardinals win 31-27. Over and Cardinals cover.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
The Bills handled the Steelers well last season, winning 26-15 after pulling away in Buffalo. Josh Allen won't have easy pickings passing downfield against T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick, but Ben Roethlisberger will have a more difficult time against a bolstered Bills' defense with its strength in the middle of the field. The Bills will do enough to contain the running of rookie Najee Harris, while Allen finds enough matchups to exploit.
Pick: Bills win 27-19. Under and Bills cover.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
The Eagles have new offensive-minded coach Nick Sirianni calling their plays. The Falcons have new offensive-minded coach Arthur Smith calling their plays. Atlanta has a little more stability around Matt Ryan with wide receiver Calvin Ridley and prized rookie tight end Kyle Pitts helping an improved running game featuring Mike. Philadelphia has more volatility running and passing with Jalen Hurts at the helm. Smith sparks and inspires the Falcons a little more at home in his rookie debut.
Pick: Falcons win 27-24. Over and Eagles cover.
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
The Packers know they will have Aaron Rodgers starting another season. The Saints know that Drew Brees has played his last season for them. Green Bay's offense is the more reliable machine here with the blocking and skill principals Davante Adams and Aaron Jones. New Orleans is a wild card between Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill with no Michael Thomas in the lineup and will be too Alvin Kamara-dependent in a home away from home. Brees and the dome was often automatic, but Rodgers and the road is the better bet here.
Pick: Packers win 30-24. Over and Packers cover.
The Broncos have a big QB concern between third-year man Drew Lock and bridge option Teddy Bridgewater. The Giants are facing boom or bust with third-year man Daniel Jones. Denver will be even more reliant on the run for defensive-minded Vic Fangio with rookie Javonte Williams in the backfield. Joe Judge should see his offense open up more for Jones with a healthy Saquon Barkley and a big-play Kenny Golladay. Denver has buzz for defense, but New York has sneaky improvement there.
Pick: Giants win 23-17. Under and Giants cover.
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
The Dolphins are rebooting their offense in the first full year of Tua Tagovailoa starting. The Patriots, whether with Mac Jones or Cam Newton, will be focused on a complementary passing game to build off their deep and strong running game, knowing how good their defense still is. Brian Flores has a pretty good defense, built in the image of mentor Bill Belichick's scheme. This feels like a messy low-scoring game decided by a few offensive mistakes. Miami will make those while New England is fine being a bit conservative in a battle of attrition.
Pick: Patriots win 17-13. Under and Patriots cover.
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
The Bears are going with Andy Dalton over first-rounder Justin Fields knowing this matchup is a tough first assignment for the rookie. It's not breezy for Dalton, either, knowing his shaky offensive line with see a lot of Aaron Donald and go-to wide receiver Allen Robinson will see plenty of fellow former Jaguar Jalen Ramsey. It's also his least favorite game time, in prime time. Matthew Stafford will get to make his Rams debut against a familiar NFC North foe, taking advantage of strong support and savvy play-calling from Sean McVay.
Pick: Rams win 27-17. Under and Rams cover.
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
The Ravens aren't the best visitors to have when Las Vegas is trying to treat its first home fans in attendance to prime-time victory. Lamar Jackson will do whatever he wants running and passing against the Raiders' defense, with boosts from J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and a revamped receiving corps. Derek Carr will feel the heat with the Ravens stopping the run and containing their former feel-good story, Darren Waller.
Pick: Ravens win 33-20. Over and Ravens cover.
