Three of the top five teams in the NFC will be on display on Thanksgiving, with two of three most traditional matchups filling the holiday football fix.
That starts with the 23rd Thanksgiving matchup between the Lions and Packers. Detroit will play NFC North rival Green Bay at 12:30 p.m. ET on Fox. The Lions are steam-rolling toward a NFC North title under Dan Campbell. Jordan Love will be in the national spotlight for a Green Bay team that is on the outskirts of the NFC playoff conversation.
COMPLETE WEEK 12 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread
Washington takes on Dallas at 4:30 p.m. ET on Fox. This is the 12th Thanksgiving matchup between the NFC East rivals. The Cowboys have been dominant at AT&T Stadium this season, and they are trying to stay within reach of the Eagles in the NFC East. The Commanders also are on the fringe of playoff talk, but that took a hit with a Week 11 loss to the Giants.
San Francisco travels to Seattle in the 8:20 p.m. matchup on NBC, which allows other NFL cities to get in on the tradition. This is the first Thanksgiving matchup between these teams since 2014, and the teams are separated by just one game in the NFC West.
Each week, Sporting News picks every NFL matchup by the spread. A look at our track record this season:
- Straight up: 103-61 (8-6 in Week 11)
- ATS: 83-77-4 (5-9 in Week 11)
Here are our straight-up picks for the Thanksgiving games in Week 12 (lines courtesy of Caesars):
NFL picks, predictions for Thanksgiving
- Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-7.5)
Thursday, 12:30 p.m., Fox
The Lions have a chance for a fifth straight victory in the series with Green Bay – a nod to how Dan Campbell has changed the nature of the rivalry. Detroit hammered the Packers 34-20 in the last meeting with 211 rushing yards. The Lions are 3-2 ATS at home, but they needed a two-TD fourth-quarter rally to beat NFC North rival Chicago in Week 11.
Can Green Bay block the Detroit defensive line this time? Aidan Hutchinson is a game-plan wrecker, and Jordan Love was sacked a season-high five times in the last meeting. Aaron Jones (knee) might not be able to play this week. The Packers have lost four road games by a combined total of four points, and this will be Love's chance to keep Green Bay in the playoff race.
The Packers still can't stop the run, however, and that will be the difference.
Pick: Lions 28, Packers 19
- Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-11)
Thursday, 4:30 p.m., CBS
Dallas is winning by college football-like margins at home. The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS at Jerry World and have beat those opponents by an average of 27.5 points per game. It has been an impressive display in those games, especially by the defense. Dallas has a +6 turnover ratio in those games, and that unit – led by Michah Parsons – should be fired up about the Washington matchup.
Washington would seemingly be an easy pick to be next, but they are 5-1 ATS on the road. Still, Can they protect Sam Howell – who has taken a league-high 51 sacks – long enough to keep it interesting? The Commanders did beat the Cowboys 41-16 in their last Thanksgiving matchup in 2020.
This is still a NFC East rivalry, so expect Washington to put up a fight.
Pick: Cowboys 31, Commanders 21
- San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Seattle Seahawks
Thursday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
The impact of the Chase Young trade has given San Francisco a boost. The defense has forced six turnovers in victories against Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. Nick Bosa has 2.5 sacks and five quarterback hits. Brock Purdy is back to playing turnover-free football, and Christian McCaffrey started a new TD streak last week. The 49ers are catching the Seahawks at the right time. Geno Smith (elbow) and Kenneth Walker III (oblique) are dealing with injuries, and Seattle might be forced to turn to Drew Lock and Zach Charbonnet in the backfield as a result. It's still two tough NFC West defensive involved here, however.
The Seahawks are 2-1 ATS as an underdog and can lean into that home-field advantage. San Francisco is 0-3 ATS when favored between 7-10 points. Still, we'll take the healthier team on offense.
Pick: 49ers 27, Seahawks 13
