Week 15 was, in a word, rough. Two double-digit underdogs, the Jets and the Bengals, won straight up. A few favorites failed to cover by the slimmest of margins.
MORE: Get the latest NFL Week 16 odds, lines & more here
That means the only response is to dive right back into another tough slate of 16 games in Week 16, the penultimate slate of the 2020 NFL regular season. This week is peppered with more close calls, with 10 teams favored by a touchdown or less along with two more considerable double-digit spreads to navigate.
Here's our latest fearless forecast of professional football prognostications, for infotainment purposes only:
MORE: Week 16 NFL power rankings | Picks straight up
NFL picks against the spread for Week 16
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Game of Midweek: Vikings at Saints (-7, 52 o/u)
Friday, 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network, Amazon Prime Video
The Vikings have had the Saints' number in two of the past three NFC playoffs. The Saints can forget about worrying about that by eliminating the Vikings from the playoffs and finally winning a fourth straight NFC South title at the same time. After losing to the Eagles and Chiefs in back-to-back weeks, look for the Saints to lock in while they're home for the holiday. Their run defense will rebound to contain Dalvin Cook before the pass defense tees off on Kirk Cousins. Drew Brees will pick apart the Vikings' young secondary with a stronger second game back.
Pick: Saints win 30-20 and cover the spread.
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Game of the Week: Titans at Packers (-3.5, 56 o/u)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Titans will be trying to run all over the Packers with Derrick Henry and use Ryan Tannehill and the passing game effectively again playing off that. The Packers' goal with Aaron Rodgers will be passing aggressively to build a big lead against a defense with a limited pass rush and weak coverage to limit Henry from being the same kind of big factor with negative game script. Matt LaFleur used to work for Mike Vrabel, but he won't hold back with the slightly more explosive offense.
Pick: Packers win 31-27 and cover the spread.
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Lock of the Week: Browns (-9.5, 46.5 o/u) over Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Browns took care of the Giants rather easily in the same stadium last week and will be on high alert to play their best against the Jets with the chance to lock up their first playoff spot since 2002. The Jets got their win out of the way to take them out of the No. 1 pick. Baker Mayfield and the Browns' running game will combine for another strong performance and the defense, led by Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, will stop the run and cool off Sam Darnold.
Pick: Browns win 27-13 and cover the spread.
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Upset of the Week: Colts over Steelers (-2.5, 45.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
This was the natural direction to take with the Colts playing so well as a complete team and the Steelers struggling offensively. The Colts' defense can squeeze in coverage and keep making it tough on Ben Roethlisberger. The Colts will have success working the middle of the field with Philip Rivers and use their backs effectively to exploit the Steelers' linebacker weaknesses. A heavy dose of rookie Jonathan Taylor grinds Indy to victory in the second half.
Pick: Colts win 20-17.
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Buccaneers (-9, 54 o/u) at Lions
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Tom Brady made the comeback look easy against the Falcons after a slow start offensively and defensively. He will be locked in wire-to-wire here as the Lions cannot cover any of his receivers or tight ends and will also have no answers for the running game. The Bucs' defense will have no trouble stopping the run again and teeing off on a battered Matthew Stafford.
Pick: Buccaneers win 34-17 and cover the spread.
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49ers at Cardinals (-4.5, 49 o/u)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The 49ers won't be making the playoffs to defend their NFC championship. Their tough, injury-riddled hangover season started with a home loss to the Cardinals. Their defense is starting to break down while their offense is doing its best to stay competitive. Kyler Murray seems back on track as a passer and will be willing to do more running with Arizona close to earning an NFC wild-card berth. The 49ers are helped a little by this being a "home" game in 2020.
Pick: Cardinals win 27-23 but fail to cover the spread.
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Dolphins (-2.5, 47.5 o/u) at Raiders
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, NFL Network
The Dolphins will win this game with their recent formula of a strong running game, incorporating rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa at times, and sound all-around defense. The Raiders may counter with more of Marcus Mariota vs. his fellow Hawaiian counterpart should Derek Carr stay on the shelf with his groin injury, but the offensive approach won't change from run-heavy with calculated shots to downfield, mainly to tight end Darren Waller. The Dolphins are better coached with Brian Flores and will execute better in all three phases to improve their playoff hopes while officially dashing those of the Raiders.
Pick: Dolphins win 23-20 and cover the spread.
- Panthers at Washington Football Team (-2.5, 44.5 o/u)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
It's a Ron Rivera revenge game, which also comes with a chance to win the NFC East. The Panthers' offense won't be able to do much here with a slumping Teddy Bridgewater, thanks to the Washington defense coming hard after him and covering his outside receivers well. Dwayne Haskins wasn't great against the Seahawks, but he did give them a chance to win the game with his arm and legs. Thee's also a fair chance Alex Smith returns this week. The Panthers' defense will have trouble with the trio of Terry McLaurin, J.D. McKissic and Logan Thomas.
Pick: Washington wins 23-17 and covers the spread.
- Falcons at Chiefs (-10.5, 53.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Falcons did their best to hold off the Buccaneers at home in Week 15 but their defense still folded and blew another big lead. They don't need to worry about playing from ahead here as Patrick Mahomes will destroy their pass defense with no pressure in his face, doing what he wants with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce again. Matt Ryan outdoors without Julio Jones (likely) will go back to taking it on the chin often.
Pick: Chiefs win 38-21 and cover the spread.
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Bears (-7.5, 46.5 o/u) at Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Allen Robinson revenge game will go very well, too as the Bears' red-hot offense will have no problems making big plays with him and Darnell Mooney downfield with Mitchell Trubisky playing well, with everything powered by David Montgomery's big-time running. Gardner Minshew is making his final two starts for the Jaguars and may be without dynamic undrafted back James Robinson against a tough defense.
Pick: Bears win 31-14 and cover the spread.
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Bengals at Texans (-9, 45 o/u)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Bengals expended a lot of emotion and energy to take down the Steelers at home on Monday night, making this a tough short-week road trip. Deshaun Watson is back locked in again with his new mix of receivers and now David Johnson is back up and running well. The Texans could use a good win to carry into 2021 and this is it as the Bengals' running game limitations help the defense.
Pick: Texans win 31-23 but fail to cover the spread.
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Giants at Ravens (-11.5, 45.5 o/u)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Ravens are rolling again with their 2019 offensive formula around Lamar Jackson with all of his key skill support coming through again. The defense is grinding through a few injuries but get a break with the Giants' anemic offense, regardless of it being Colt McCoy or Daniel Jones
Pick: Ravens win 27-13 and cover the spread.
- Broncos at Chargers (-3, 48.5 o/u)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Chargers are working to finish strong with Justin Herbert as their offense is firing on all cylinders with balance and explosiveness. Their defense has plenty of holes still but enough playmakers to contain Drew Lock, even with struggles against former Charger Melvin Gordon and the running game. The Broncos' defense was lost everywhere against the Bills and face a similar challenge on the road this week.
Pick: Chargers win 27-20 and cover the spread.
- Eagles (-1.5, 49 o/u) at Cowboys
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Eagles' offense is humming with the running and passing of Jalen Hurts. The Cowboys cannot stop that dual threat and the traditional running of Miles Sanders. The Cowboys should get more good running from Tony Pollard, assuming Ezekiel Elliott (calf) is kept out of action, but they should face a healthier overall Eagles' defense than the one that went to Arizona in Week 15.
Pick: Eagles win 27-24 and cover the spread.
- Rams at Seahawks (-2, 47.5 o/u)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Rams will try to pick up the pieces from losing to the Jets but will be without their best source of rushing production, rookie Cam Akers. The Seahawks' defense has been good against the run all season and has tightened the screws against the pass. The Seahawks' rushing attack is also rolling with Russell Wilson helping Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde. The Seahawks survive a battle of attrition to lock down the NFC West title.
Pick: Seahawks win 23-20 and cover the spread.
- Bills at Patriots (-7, 45 o/u)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Patriots are officially eliminated from the playoffs while the Bills, the new AFC East champions, know they can get the No. 2 seed in the AFC with the Steelers stumbling. They beat the Patriots once and want to do it again to put a stamp on the transition of power in prime time. The disparity at quarterback from Josh Allen to Cam Newton shows up here.
Pick: Bills win 24-14 and cover the spread.
Stats of the Week
Week 15 straight up: 10-6
Week 15 against the spread: 5-10
Season straight up: 142-82
Season against the spread: 116-102
