Our NFL Week 12 picks and predictions against the spread were a little rough again, but we'll hopefully get back on track with better all-around luck for Week 13. A lot of crazy finishes contributed to the fearless forecast frustration. The only way to break out of that is dive headfirst into the next wave of pigskin prognostications.
MORE: Get the latest NFL Week 13 odds, lines & more here
Week 13 brings plenty more small lines and tossup games, but also some considerable double-digit favorites to navigate. Everything has gotten more difficult as some of the lesser teams clump together as more equals, regressing to their mean.
Without trepidation, here's how SN breaks down the upcoming matchups and sees the entire slate of 15 games playing out:
MORE: Week 13 NFL power rankings | Week 13 picks straight up
NFL picks against the spread for Week 13
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NFC Game of the Week: Eagles at Packers (-7, 48.5 o/u)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Eagles are coming off a short week but desperation will continue as they try to salvage a second straight NFC East title. Their success in the running game and throwing to their backs will keep them hanging around, but eventually, Aaron Rodgers will easily outduel Carson Wentz to ensure the Packers get revenge for an early 2019 loss at Lambeau Field.
Pick: Packers win 27-23 but fail to cover the spread.
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AFC Game of the Week: Browns at Titans (-5.5, 54 o/u)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Browns and Titans both want to run the ball well to control the clock and set up favorable play-action passing opportunities for Baker Mayfield and Ryan Tannehill. This becomes more of a grinding battle between Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry with a few big pass plays to the talented receivers against weak secondaries. Trust Henry and Tannehill a little more at home.
Pick: Titans win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
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Lock of the Week: Seahawks (-9, 48.5 o/u) over Giants
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Seahawks are flying back home after a short week but they will likely face Colt McCoy instead of Daniel Jones. That gives their defense and running game, which are finding momentum, a chance to take care of business at home, where they have yet to lose this season. Russell Willson will play off the run well as usual with shots downfield away from James Bradberry. The Giants will see the run contained and won't have enough firepower to keep up.
Pick: Seahawks win 30-14 and cover the spread.
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Upset of the Week: 49ers over Bills (-2.5, 48 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The 49ers got a massive win in sweeping the Rams in Week 12 and now can start to sense a shocking late playoff run with a healthier offense and defense. Their coaching has been fantastic all season. They will effectively run on the Bills and use their intermediate passing game well, too. On the other side, they will get after Josh Allen after shutting down the run. The Bills lose by a field goal on this tough cross-country trip.
Pick: 49ers win 27-24 and cover the spread.
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Lions at Bears (-4.5, 45 o/u)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Lions fired their head coach, Matt Patricia. The Bears might also soon be done with their head coach, Matt Nagy. There's should be some motivation of the players to play harder on both sides with their respective fading seasons at stake. Crazy things tend to happen when both teams are mediocre — see the Week 1 tale of two games. Let's meet somewhere in the middle with an ugly low-scoring game.
Pick: Bears win 20-17 but fail to cover the spread.
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Bengals at Dolphins (-11, 41.5 o/u)
The Bengals played over their heads defensively in Week 12 and also got a special teams touchdown to cover against the Giants. The Dolphins get pretty methodically in opponents they should beat under Brian Flores. Whether it's more of Ryan Fitzpatrick or Tua Tagovailoa, there will be a limited burden on Miami's quarterbacks. Look for the Dolphins to grind this out with whoever's running the ball with a few pass plays to score enough.
Pick: Dolphins win 24-10 and cover the spread.
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Colts (-2.5, 53.5) at Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Colts are becoming a hard team to predict from week to week. They took enough defensive hits with inactives in Week 12 to roll over against the Titans. This week, they should go back to establishing the run well against a weak Texans front to ease the pressure on Philip Rivers. Their secondary and linebackers can contain Deshaun Watson's deep passing and scrambling just enough to avoid the upset.
Pick: Colts win 27-24 and cover the spread.
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Jaguars at Vikings (-9.5, 52 o/u)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Vikings had two fluky fumbles go for touchdowns against them against the Panthers, making the game much closer than it should have been. The Jaguars simply cannot stop the Vikings' principal playmakers for Kirk Cousins, led by Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson. The Vikings' defense is containing much better with their zone defense to stop any threat of a Mike Glennon comeback.
Pick: Vikings win 31-14 and cover the spread.
- Raiders (-8, 47.5 o/u) at Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Raiders will try this again after falling flat on the East Coast against the Falcons. The Jets also can contain their running game but look for Derek Carr to get refocused in spreading the ball around downfield with fewer mistakes. The Jets continue to show less life with Adam Gase and Sam Darnold so it's hard to expect them to get off the mat with Jon Gruden pushing his team to play a lot better.
Pick: Raiders win 24-14 and cover the spread.
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Saints (-3, 46 0/u) at Falcons
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Saints thrashed the Falcons two weeks ago in Taysom Hill's first start. This will be trickier on the road after the Falcons stopped the run well against the Raiders and Matt Ryan will provide more offensive resistance. The problem is, the Saints' passing game and defense will continue to come through when needed and has too much at stake with the No. 1 seed to let up against their archrivals.
Pick: Saints win 27-20 and cover the spread.
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Rams (-2.5, 48.5 o/u) at Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Rams' defense is rolling. The Cardinals' offense is slowing down as Kyler Murray has a bad shoulder. But it's easier to trust Murray to rebound at home vs. Jared Goff and his boom-or-bust nature to be better on the road. Arizona is gathering more defensive playmakers and Los Angeles will try to use Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey to rattle Murray and shut down DeAndre Hopkins. The Cardinals get it done with the more reliable running and short-to-intermediate passing game.
Pick: Cardinals win 24-20.
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Patriots at Chargers (-1, 47 o/u)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Patriots travel cross country in trying to further breathe life into their limited playoff hopes. This screams of them grinding the game out with Cam Newton and their traditional running game and leaning more on their improved defensive scheming vs. Justin Herbert. The Patriots can help their QB better with running as they compress the opposing offense around Herbert.
Pick: Patriots win 23-20 and cover the spread.
- Broncos at Chiefs (-13.5, 50.5 o/u)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Broncos hope to have a quarterback to start in Week 13, but it doesn't really matter when the best quarterback on the planet, Patrick Mahomes is playing host on the other side. Drew Lock will be eager to get back in there in his home state, but he'll be taking major lumps against an aggressive pass rush playing with a big lead.
Pick: Chiefs win 34-17 and cover the spread.
- Washington Football Team at Steelers (-10, 44)
Monday, 5 p.m. ET, Fox
The Steelers are coming off a short week having played Wednesday against the Ravens. WFT has had a long week to recover since Thanksgiving. Unfortunately, Washington's offense doesn't match up well against the Steelers' run-stopping and pass-rushing defense up front. Ben Roethlisberger will be very comfortable getting the ball out and spreading it around, while Alex Smith won't have that kind of time.
Pick: Steelers win 27-13 and cover the spread.
- Cowboys at Ravens (off board)
Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. ET, Fox/NFL Network
The Cowboys will have a long layoff from Thanksgiving playing this game four days later than expected. The Ravens will hope to have enough healthy bodies to field a competitive team that more resembles their best self. For now, it's hard to think John Harbaugh and their staff will get out-coached by the mess Mike McCarthy is operating in Dallas. There's too much pride and desperation here in trying to get an AFC wild-card berth to think Baltimore will fall, leaning much on its running game and defense here.
Pick: Ravens win 24-17.
Stats of the Week
Week 12 straight up: 9-5
Week 12 against the spread: 3-9
Season straight up: 111-63
Season against the spread: 94-76
