Week 2 in the NFL of a given regular season tends to be weird. The results of Week 1 may force to lean a certain way before having the long-term data points to understand how good and bad every team is.
Thanks to some improbable comebacks against favorites that seemed to be in total control of their games, the picks and predictions vs. the spread hit a rough patch. But the only thing to do is turn the page to Week 3 and be fearless in the face of more tough matchups to call.
Here's the latest ATS and straight-up breakdown for another full game slate:
(Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction)
POWER RANKINGS: Dolphins rocket into top 10; 49ers, Rams recover; Colts, Browns plummet for Week 3
NFL picks against the spread for Week 3
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Game of Midweek: Steelers at Browns (-5, 38.5 o/u)
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The Steelers are getting below-average QB play from fill-in Mitchell Trubisky before they decide to turn to rookie first-rounder Kenny Pickett. The Browns are seeing Jacoby Brissett play well while they wait for Deshaun Watson. Nick Chubb has been the driving force of the offense and can succeed vs. Pittsburgh's front seven. Trubisky, a Cleveland native, won't be able to generate enough points in a hostile road environment.
Pick: Browns win 20-17 but fail to cover the spread.
Result: Browns win 29-17 and cover the spread.
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Game of the Week: Packers at Buccaneers (-2.5, 41.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Packers got back to the basics of their defense and running game at home in Lambeau Field to put Aaron Rodgers back in the comfort zone. The Bucs won't allow them to breath easy with their own QB-supporting combination for Tom Brady. Both offenses are managing line and receiver issues and Tampa Bay is a little stingier overall defensively. But with the MVP vs. the GOAT one last time. expect a well-played and balanced classic.
Pick: Buccaneers win 24-20 and cover the spread.
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Lock of the Week: Vikings (-7. 52.5 o/u) over Lions
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Vikings' defense is much improved with a 3-4 scheme anchored by a good edge pass rush again. They also should be able to move the ball downfield with Justin Jefferson and run for chunks with Dalvin Cook at home vs. an overmatched Detroit defense. Minnesota will rattle Jared Goff plenty while Kirk Cousins gets settled to thoroughly outplay him.
Pick: Vikings win 34-17 and cover the spread.
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Upset of the Week: Cowboys over Giants (-2.5, 39.5 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Cowboys rallied around Cooper Rush and their defense to shock the Bengals in the first full game without Dak Prescott. The Giants also have been an early surprise with their 2-0 start. The difference will be Dallas' pass rush with Micah Parsons and more big plays on the back end from Trevon Diggs vs. Daniel Jones and a limited passing game. This also is a good chance for the Cowboys to ride Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard and the running game more.
Pick: Cowboys win 24-23.
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Bills (-4.5, 51 o/u) at Dolphins
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bills will be coming off a physical Monday night game against the Titans to face the September heat in Miami. Josh Allen and the Buffalo passing game needs to come prepare for a shootout with Mike McDaniel getting Tua Tagovailoa rolling with his speedy weapons. But both defenses can have some impact with pass rush and coverage, making it a little easier to trust the more mobile Allen to be the more efficient quarterback.
Pick: Bills win 31-27 but fail to cover the spread.
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Ravens (-3, 44 o/u) at Patriots
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' downfield passing game is humming and he became the entire running game in Week 2, too. The Patriots don't have the receivers to keep the Ravens' secondary slumping and Mac Jones isn't getting what he needs from the rushing attack. There are enough holes in the New England defense in intermediate to deep coverage for John Harbaugh's team to get the better of Bill Belichick's in this long-standing coaching rivalry.
Pick: Ravens win 24-20 and cover the spread.
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Chiefs (-6.5, 49.5 o/u) at Colts
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The 2-0 Chiefs are feeling their new-look diverse offense with Patrick Mahomes. Their defense also has come out overachieving with new and younger pieces. The Colts have no offensive life beyond Jonathan Taylor and now injured Michael Pittman Jr. as Matt Ryan has come out cold. Their defense is greatly missing Shaquille Leonard, too. Desperation will kick in for them and Taylor will do his best to run them into the game, but Kansas City will continue its stellar road play for Andy Reid.
Pick: Chiefs win 31-24 and cover the spread.
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Bengals (-4.5, 45 o/u) at Jets
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bengals, at 0-2, likely won't take the 1-1 Jets lightly on the road for a second consecutive season after losing in New York in 2021. They need to help take pressure off Joe Burrow by getting well with a heavy dose of Joe Mixon and the running game. That will set up more favorable downfield shots off play-action with Burrow not taking so many sacks. On the flip side, the Bengals need to avoid giving up big plays and make more of them.
Pick: Bengals win 30-17 and cover the spread
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Raiders (-1, 45.5 o/u) at Titans
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Raiders with Derek Carr and the Titans with Mike Vrabel are two of the most unpredictable entities in the NFL. Las Vegas should have great success passing downfield with Carr here, but Tennessee can counter with getting Derrick Henry back on track to set up strong answers from Ryan Tannehill.
Pick: Titans win 30-27.
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Eagles (-4, 50.5 o/u) at Commanders
Sunday.1 p.m. ET, Fox
Carson Wentz gets a home revenge game opposite Jalen Hurts. The Commanders' defense is an absolute mess that cannot stop the power running or downfield passing game. Hurts will have his way with A.J. Brown and he and the Eagles also will rack up with a big rushing attack. Wentz and Washington have added firepower and Philadelphia has some real defensive holes, but he's more likely to make a critical mistake or two than Hurts.
Pick: Eagles win 35-27 and cover the spread.
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Saints (-3, 40.5 o.u) at Panthers
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Saints are seeing Jameis Winston grinding through his injury and working with an offense that has little rushing support, with or without Alvin Kamara. Their defense is still sorting out some things with Dennis Allen, but they can play Baker Mayfield and the Panthers tough with their pass rush and coverage. This low-scoring sloppy game will come down to turnovers and red zone execution and it's a Big Easy play to go with New Orleans vs. Matt Rhule-led Carolina.
Pick: Saints win 20-13 and cover the spread.
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Texans at Bears (-2.5, 39 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Texans' defense has done well early vs. the Colts and Broncos with former Bears coach Lovie Smith leading the team. Davis Mills, however, has taken some lumps to limit their passing game while rookie Dameon Pierce is starting to rev up the running game. The Bears' offense looks lost around Justin Fields, but here's a chance to get their primary playmakers around the QB going in trying to get to 2-0 at home.
Pick: Bears win 24-20 and cover the spread.
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Jaguars at Chargers (-7, 47.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Jaguars are coming off an emotional shutout victory over the Colts. The Chargers have had a minibye to recover from the tough loss to the Chiefs and give Justin Herbert's ribs a rest. Herbert and Austin Ekeler should have their way with the Jaguars' defense while Trevor Lawrence faces a much tougher pass rush and secondary.
Pick: Chargers win 34-24 and cover the spread.
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Rams (-4, 50 o/u) at Cardinals
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Rams and Cardinals each got key rebound wins in Week 2. Los Angeles' passing game is just fine again with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. The Cardinals' pass defense found a few answers against the Raiders late, but they are still overmatched here. Kyler Murray, meanwhile, will revisit memories of a tough playoff game vs. Aaron Donald the Rams' defense.
Pick: Rams win 30-22 and cover the spread.
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Falcons at Seahawks (-2, 42 o.u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Falcons went to the limit with the Saints and Rams but don't have a win to show for it. The Seahawks came crashing down in San Francisco after taking down Denver. Marcus Mariota returns to the Pacific Northwest and will have more success with Drake London as his visiting team also gets Kyle Pitts going. Seattle will struggle to run the ball again and see a frustrated D.K. Metcalf shut down by A.J. Terrell.
Pick: Falcons win 23-20.
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49ers (-1.5, 43 o/u) at Broncos
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The 49ers' winning formula stays the same with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback and there are hopes they can get George Kittle back in the lineup with him to support the running game and create even more favorable coverage for Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Nick Bosa and San Francisco's defense will set the tone vs. familiar foe Russell Wilson and Denver will be inconsistent in running the ball to help him.
Pick: 49ers win 26-20.
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Stats of the Week
Week 2 record straight up: 8-7
Week 2 record against the spread: 6-9
Season record straight up: 18-12
Season record against the spread: 15-16
