Week 12 came with more crazy finishes. While the Chargers made a great escape at Arizona, the Ravens and Buccaneers weren't so fortunate on the road in blowing late leads. The Seahawks also got stunned at home by the Raiders.
There also were some more predictable outcomes as the Chiefs, Eagles, 49ers and Dolphins took care of business at home. That gives us more confidence for stronger picks and predictions against the spread for Week 13.
It's another almost full slate, this time with only the Cardinals and Panthers, leaving 15 matchups to navigate from Thursday through Monday. Here's the latest fearless forecast of professional pigskin prognostications:
(Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction)
NFL POWER RANKINGS: Bengals have Chiefs, Bills in sights; Rams, Packers, Broncos near rock bottom
NFL picks against the spread for Week 13
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Game of Midweek: Bills (-5, 43.5 o/u) at Patriots
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The Bills and Patriots had different road results against NFC North foes on Thanksgiving, with Buffalo edging Detroit and New England falling in Minnesota. Their first meeting of the season should produce typical tight division results with Mac Jones playing better and the Patriots staying in the game with their rushing attack. But in the end, they have too many coverage issues to contain Josh Allen enough.
Pick: Bills win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Result: Bills win 27-10 and cover the spread.
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Game of the Week: Chiefs (-2.5, 52.5 o/u) at Bengals
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Chiefs have been hot with Patrick Mahomes in the passing game, but they still have limited options beyond Travis Kelce and they're not consistently committed or effective running. The Bengals will be more versatile, multiple and explosive around Joe Burrow with Joe Mixon and Ja'Marr Chase likely to return to help the power running and deep passing games. In another epic duel, Mahomes gets edged by a Burrow-led field-goal drive on the last home possession.
Pick: Bengals win 30-27.
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Upset of the Week: Titans (+5.5, 44.5 o/u) over Eagles
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Titans present a tricky matchup for the Eagles on both sides of the ball because of their relentless power rushing attack with Derrick Henry and their stout run defense. The Eagles will work with Jalen Hurts and the downfield passing game well with a motivated revenge game from former Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown. But look for a hammering Henry to play spoiler and Mike Vrabel's team sneaks away with another physical battle of attrition.
Pick: Titans win 24-20.
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Lock of the Week: Ravens (-9, 38.5 o/u) over Broncos
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Ravens' defense went back to having major lapses against the pass against Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. There's nothing like that to worry about with Russell Wilson and an evaporating Broncos' offense, save for the running of fill-in Latavius Murray, who ran for the Ravens last season. Lamar Jackson will do enough running and short passing to keep the ball moving and avoid mistakes, while the Broncos keep folding.
Pick: Ravens win 27-10 and cover the spread.
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Steelers at Falcons (-1.5, 42 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Steelers get their running game going again here to help a more confident Kenny Pickett, who will see favorable matchups all over the field in the passing game, too. The Falcons give the Steelers' defense a break with their limited receiving weapons once their own rushing attack is contained in a home game that will feel like Pittsburgh.
Pick: Steelers win 27-20 and cover the spread.
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Packers at Bears (off board)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Packers aren't sure if Aaron Rodgers can go with his thumb and rib injuries. the Bears are concerned about Justin Fields' left shoulder. There's a bye for both teams in Week 14. This very well could be Jordan Love vs. Trevor Siemian, which means it's running game vs. running game vs. two bad run defenses. Advantage Packers with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon over the Bears with David Montgomery.
Pick: Packers win 23-20.
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Jaguars at Lions (-1, 51.5 o/u)
Sunday.1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Jaguars' passing offense is red-hot with Trevor Lawrence and there's en expectation Travis Etienne will return from the foot injury to help their rushing attack. These teams are similar given slot receivers Christian Kirk and Amon-Ra St. Brown are their go-to guys. The Jaguars have a little more young defensive juice around Travon Walker than the Lions have around Aidan Hutchinson. Lawrence is flat-out also already better than Jared Goff. Go with Doug Pederson's cats.
Pick: Jaguars win 31-27.
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Jets at Vikings (-3, 45.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Vikings figured out the Patriots' defense well last week with a heavy dose of Justin Jefferson and their key passing principals. They simply have more firepower around Kirk Cousins than the Jets do around Mike White. Dalvin Cook also can be a bigger factor rushing and receiving. White cools off as Cousins stays hot playing off the run.
Pick: Vikings win 24-17 and cover the spread.
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Commanders (-1, 40.5 o/u) at Giants
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Commanders are favored on the road because this isn't a great matchup for the Giants. Washington has been power running very well between Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson and that's become New York's huge defensive weakness. The Commanders' defense is playing better all-around but stays especially stout vs. the run, which will keep Saquon Barkley cold.
Pick: Commanders win 20-17 and cover the spread.
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Browns (-7, 47 o/u) at Texans
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Browns' hype will be around Deshaun Watson's debut against his former team in an initial revenge game. But this game will be all about Nick Chubb destroying the Texans' run defense. Dameon Pierce can do some damage early against the Browns' run defense, but eventually some big pass plays from Watson will put this game out of reach and Kyle Allen in uncomfortable spots vs. Myles Garrett & Co.
Pick: Browns win 30-17 and cover the spread.
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Seahawks (-5.5, 40.5 o/u) at Rams
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Seahawks are regressing back to the mean because of some run defense issues and untimely turnovers. Their red zone snags are also catching up to them a bit. They can still rebound well with Kenneth Walker and finding the right matchup between DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but the Rams will stay in it with their necessary run-heavy attack at home.
Pick: Seahawks win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.
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Dolphins at 49ers (-3.5, 46.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Dolphins' offensive tackles are hurting and that's not a good development for Tua Tagovailoa against Nick Bosa and Samson Ebuksam. They will struggle to run well with a former 49er, likely Jeff Wilson Jr. and Tagovailoa won't have time to hit on big plays to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins' defense will have issues trying to slow down Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. This feels like the Cardinals game for San Francisco as it rebounds from a quiet offensive Week 12.
Pick: 49ers win 34-21 and cover the spread.
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Chargers (-1, 50.5 o/u) at Raiders
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Raiders are back to their wild winning ways as they took down the Broncos and Seahawks on the road in overtime in typical crazy comeback fashion. White-hot Josh Jacobs can keep carrying the Silver and Black in this matchup, but expect sizzling Justin Herbert to outduel erratic Derek Carr with plenty of help from Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen. The Chargers need this game in their AFC wild-card chase and won't let the Raiders keep playing spoiler.
Pick: Chargers win 34-27 and cover the spread.
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Colts at Cowboys (-9.5, 43.5 o/u)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Colts will try to stay in this game by pounding plenty of Jonathan Taylor on the Cowboys, but eventually, the Cowboys will take control with Dak Prescott and his running backs and put Matt Ryan in shaky situations against their pass rush. Dallas is hard to slow down at home and it gets a double-dip of overmatched AFC South opponents. The prime-time emotional bump says the Cowboys will avoid falling into this trap.
Pick: Cowboys win 30-14 and cover the spread.
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Saints at Buccaneers (-3.5, 40 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Saints got shut out last week as their offensive keeps going on an inconsistent ride with Andy Dalton and Alvin Kamara. The Buccaneers continue to be an enigma with not everything clicking around Tom Brady at the same time. But their defense gets a bit of a home break here and Brady might be facing a shell of a secondary to help rev up his receivers better. Dalton's disastrous prime-time work is also well documented, especially in a hostile road environment.
Pick: Buccaneers win 24-14 and cover the spread.
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Stats of the Week
Week 12 record straight up: 12-3
Week 12 record against the spread: 9-6
Season record straight up: 110-66
Season record against the spread: 89-85
