Week 12 in the NFL was a wild full slate of games. starting with some big expected performances on Thanksgiving to some unpredictable results in division matchups over the weekend. That was a key week to survive with our picks and predictions against the spread to rebound from a rough Week 11.
Now comes Week 13, with the schedule contracted back to a fitting 13 games with six teams back on bye. That's a great time to transition again to better dividends. Without further ado, here's the latest edition of our fearless forecast:
(Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction)
POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs, Cowboys, Ravens rise; Lions, Browns drop thanks to revived Broncos, Packers
NFL picks against the spread for Week 13
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Game of Midweek: Seahawks at Cowboys (-8.5, 46.5 o/u)
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The Seahawks are limping into the game with poor quarterback and line play. They also can't count on the running game to boost everything. The Cowboys have destroyed reeling teams at home all season long and even though Seattle's defense has improved, there are enough holes to exploit for a red-hot Dak Prescott and Tony Pollard can continue his recent juice.
Pick: Cowboys win 34-14 and cover the spread.
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Game of the Week: 49ers (-2.5, 45.5 o/u) at Eagles
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Eagles have been incredible pulling off comebacks against the Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills in monumental matchups the past three weeks. They get another shot at home in a NFC championship rematch vs. the 49ers, the team putting the most pressure on them again in the conference race.
The 49ers being rested on a mini bye helps against the OT-exhausted Eagles. Philadelphia cannot cover Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel or George Kittle well, and the speed of Christian McCaffrey also can cause problems as a receiver. San Francisco will contain the run and other big plays from Hurts while Brock Pudry picks apart the Ealges' pass defense.
Pick: 49ers win 34-31 and cover the spread.
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Upset of the Week: Jets (+2.5, 34 o/u) over Falcons
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Falcons got their rushing and defensive groove back with Desmond Ridder at home, led by featuring Bijan Robinson. But Ridder isn't the same QB on the road and the Falcons' passing game won't post much of a challenge as a complementary threat here. The Jets will find some success with Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson to spark their struggling offense at home.
Pick: Jets win 17-14.
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Lock of the Week: Steelers (-5.5, 40 o/u) over Cardinals
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Broncos came through at home with a low number in Week 12. The Steelers did that against the Packers at home a few weeks ago. They're favored by less than a touchdown at home despite being 7-4 and facing a weak 2-10 NFC foe. The Steelers' offense finally hit four hundred combined last week and the Cardinals were ripped by the Rams' backs. That's great new for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren at home, and also look for Kenny Pickett to flex as a passer and runner opposite Kyler Murray.
Pick: Steelers win 34-17 and cover the spread.
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Colts (-2, 43 o/u) at Titans
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Gardner Minshew is finding a way to make enough plays working off Jonathan Taylor's strong running and a more active defense. The Titans haven't been pretty offensively with Will Levis, but they go as Derrick Henry goes, and vice versa. The Colts' defense has improved on the back end, while the Titans presenting a challenging front vs. the run. Levis comes through here as Tennessee makes it two in a row in Nashville.
Pick: Titans win 20-17.
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Chargers (-6, 40.5 o/u) at Patriots
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Chargers found a little more defensive pop against the Ravens as they were OK in giving up more in the running game to contain the pass. That game plan will allow the Patriots to stay in it for a while given their uncertain QB situation and banged-up receiving corps. Justin Herbert grinds L.A. to a save-face victory as New England is fine getting closer to the top of the draft.
Pick: Chargers win 20-16 but fail to cover the spread.
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Lions (-3.5, 45.5 o/u) at Saints
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Saints' offense might be very thin at wide receiver with injuries and Derek Carr isn't playing well. The running game will be contained, as will Alvin Kamara in the passing game. The Lions are well rested and will be refocused on the road after the Packers upset on Thanksgiving. The Saints' run defense is breaking down and the worst team and they won't have the offense to answer well with Derek Carr at home.
Pick: Lions win 27-20 and cover the spread.
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Dolphins (-9.5, 50 o/u) at Commanders
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Dolphins had some issues with the Raiders at home before running all over the Jets on the road. Here they face a defense going through the motions in Washington and one that cannot cover either Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle anywhere on the field. The Commanders also aren't the greatest run defense any more. Defensively, their pass rush and coverage have gotten better and will continue to fluster Sam Howell
Pick: Dolphins win 34-17 and cover the spread.
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Broncos at Texans (-3.5, 46 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Broncos' defense has tightened up against the pass with its pressure and coverage, so the Texans to exploit the rushing weakness to open up things downfield for C.J. Stroud. Russell Wilson will attack Houston well with the short-to-intermediate passing game in the middle of the field. Wilson and Stroud play to a draw until a final field-goal drive led by the rookie.
Pick: Texans win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.
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Panthers at Buccaneers (-5, 37 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Buccaneers have taken some lumps on the road against the 49ers and Colts in the past couple of weeks. But they haven't lost their offensive mojo with Rachaad White and Mike Evans supporting Baker Mayfield most. The Panthers' coach firing of Frank Reich won't cause the expected offensive spark. It becomes more deflating for Bryce Young and the Bucs' injury-riddled pass defense gets back-end break here.
Pick: Buccaneers win 27-20 and cover the spread.
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Browns at Rams (-4.5, 39.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
UCLA product Dorian Thompson-Robinson will hope to be healthy as a rookie starting QB to help Cleveland's suddenly precarious playoff hopes. The running game and defense, along with plenty of home fan support, will keep the Browns in it. The issue will be the Rams' pass defense, as Aaron Donald will be game to show his multiple DPOY punch with Myles Garrett in the house.
Pick: Rams win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.
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Chiefs (-6.5, 42.5 o/u) at Packers
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Chiefs got their passing game zipping along again with Patrick Mahomes in Las Vegas but the Green Bay defense, another weak unit vs. the run, is better against the pass. Lambeau is also a tricky road environment at night vs. a suddenly hot NFC foe. A hot Jordan Love tries his best to keep up with Mahomes with his young weapons, but Kansas City gets it done closing the door with the complementary power rushing attack.
Pick: Chiefs win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
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Bengals at Jaguars (-8, 39 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Bengals not having Joe Burrow weakens their offense. But their defense is wilting more with their issues over the middle vs. run and covering tight ends. Look for that to work well for Travis Etienne and Evan Engram to help the Jaguars plenty as the wide receivers also are rolling with Trevor Lawrence. Jake Browning will do his best to keep Cincinnati in it early, but the road in the prime time for the young fill-in QB becomes overwhelming.
Pick: Jaguars win 27-14 and cover the spread.
Stats of the Week
Week 12 straight up: 9-6
Week 12 against the spread: 8-7
Season straight up: 122-57
Season against the spread: 99-77-1
