There are fewer games this week because of six teams being on bye, but that doesn't make life any easier in NFL pick 'em pools and suvivor pools. Fortunately, the experts from PoolGenius are here to help by breaking down the most popular survivor pool picks and highlighting five potential Week 9 NFL picks that could give you an edge in pick 'em pools.
The picks highlighted in this post went 3-2 last week, which is notable since only one, New England, was a favorite at publication time (and only favored by 1.5 points). For those who like to track betting line movements, all five picks we made last week showed positive closing line value by kickoff time, which is a great sign. The public only won 2.2 games on average in those same five games.
For the season, our pick 'em contest value picks highlighted in this article are now 25-15. The average public picker went just 21-19 over those same 40 games.
In survivor pools, we finally had a week where nearly everyone survived. The three biggest favorites and most popular picks (Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Dallas) all won by double digits, but it took a little bit of drama and luck for some other popular picks, notably Atlanta over Carolina. The primary eliminations last week were on some secondary choices like Cincinnati and Indianapolis, and over 90 percent of the public survived.
Our picks largely mirrored the public, with Dallas as our most frequent recommendation and Atlanta as the main contrarian play outside the top three options. Overall, over 99 percent of our recommended picks advanced to Week 9, which is still solidly better than the public.
Before we get to the Week 9 picks, just a quick heads up. This will be our last post on Sporting News covering pick 'em and survivor pool analysis now that we're at the halfway point. If you're still competing for a prize in a football pool, make sure to check out our free content and premium tools for future weeks on PoolGenius. PoolGenius is the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in football pools. Check out their Football Pick 'em Picks, NFL Survivor Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.
For a limited time, PoolGenius is also offering a free trial to Sporting News readers.
FREE TRIAL: NFL pool picks from PoolGenius
Week 9 NFL Pick 'em Pool Picks: Tips, strategy
The picks listed below provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 9 picks by taking on little or no additional risk. However, that doesn't mean you should pick all of them -- the upset picks especially. Read our football pick 'em strategy to find out why.)
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Point Spread: -3.0
Pick Popularity: 58%
Category: Value favorite
Tampa Bay lost to Baltimore on Thursday Night Football last week, but it's not as if the Rams are tearing things up this season after falling to a 3-4 with a home loss to San Francisco.
Neither of these teams has been able to run the ball. In fact, these are the two worst teams in the league in rushing yards, and Tampa Bay is one of just six teams since 1970 to have fewer than 500 rushing yards after eight games played. Los Angeles is at 479 yards after seven games, so it's not doing much better.
Right now, the public is more evenly split on this game. That makes Tampa Bay a slight value favorite, and it should be part of season-long and weekly pick strategy in Week 9 if these betting odds and pick popularity numbers hold.
New Orleans vs. Baltimore Ravens
Point Spread: +2.5
Pick Popularity: 15%
Category: Value gamble in weekly prize pools
The Saints are coming off a 24-0 shutout of the Raiders and find themselves a home underdog against a Baltimore team that just traded for LB Roquan Smith from Chicago.
The Saints are a little undervalued here. They've been playing without cornerback Marshon Lattimore (abdomen) and had injuries at QB, RB, and WR early in the year. New Orleans, amid all those injuries, also played four games in 18 days in October, which included a trip to London.
Our models give a slight lean to the Saints relative to the market odds. When you add in the extreme popularity in favor of Baltimore, that makes the Saints a good value play in weekly prize pools.
WEEK 9 DFS LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuel
Las Vegas Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars
Point Spread: -1.5
Pick Popularity: 44%
Category: Value favorite
The Raiders were embarrassed in a shutout last week by the aforementioned Saints. This week, Las Vegas is staying out East between games and will play Jacksonville, a team returning from a trip to London last week.
Historically, teams that get shut out are decent plays the next week compared to public perception. Since the start of the 2017 season, teams coming off a shutout are 20-9-3 against the spread. At publication time, the public is picking the Jags more often in this game, offering nice differentiation value for the betting favorite.
Several key Raiders players did miss practice with an illness last week, so Las Vegas may also have some bounce-back potential here (and that could also partially explain last week’s poor showing).
Football Picks From TeamRankings:
Pick 'em Pool Picks | Survivor Picks | NFL Betting Picks
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
Point Spread: -2.0
Popularity: 46%
Category: Value favorite
Arizona is the final small favorite of Week 9 that the public is picking against. That makes the Cardinals a slight value favorite in a week where there aren't a lot of great value picks.
Arizona lost 19-9 at Seattle just three weeks ago when the Cardinals had two turnovers and went just one-for-five on fourth-down attempts. Now you can get them at home as an unpopular favorite. With a little better luck, the revenge-minded Cards have a good shot to hold down the Seahawks.
WEEK 9 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Washington Commanders vs. Minnesota Vikings
Point Spread: +3.5
Popularity: 10%
Category: Value gamble in weekly prize pools
Washington has gone 2-0 with Taylor Heinicke at QB in place of Carson Wentz, and the Commanders are suddenly back in the playoff picture. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 6-1 but has not been as dominant as that record implies. The Vikings have allowed more yards than they've gained, and they rank near the bottom of the NFL in most pass-defense categories.
Washington should have a chance to make plays through the air with Heinicke. While still expected to lose, the Commanders have a much better chance than the public is giving them in this game, which makes them a smart gamble if you want to stand out from the crowd in your pool.
Week 9 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Top picks, strategy
Here are the five most popular Week 8 picks in survivor pools as of this writing:
- Kansas City Chiefs (27% pick popularity) vs. Tennessee
- Philadelphia Eagles (19%) at Houston
- Cincinnati Bengals (19%) vs. Carolina
- Buffalo Bills (11%) at New York Jets
- New England Patriots (7%) vs. Indianapolis
Philadelphia, Kansas City, and Buffalo are all favored by at least 12 points this week, making them three of the largest favorites so far this year and high-value picks.
Cincinnati and New England are a little riskier in terms of their odds of advancing but have far less future value than the other three options, which is why they are in consideration this week.
How much weight you should place on survival odds vs. saving future value this week depends on factors like the number of entries still alive in your pool. Our NFL Survivor Picks product does all the necessary analysis on that front.
Get All Our Week 9 NFL Picks
Football Pick 'em Picks from PoolGenius is the only product that provides customized picks and tools to maximize your edge in NFL and college football pick 'em contests.
It uses algorithms to identify the calculated risks that give you the best chance to win game-winner pools, point-spread pools, and confidence pools, optimizing pick recommendations based on your pool's size, rules, and prize structure.
NFL Survivor Picks is our product for survivor pools, again providing customized weekly pick recommendations based on the size and specific rules of the survivor pools you play in and the teams each of your entries has already used so far.
Since 2017, our subscribers have reported winning prizes in pick 'em and survivor pools more than three times as often as expected. So, if you learned something from this article, we encourage you to check out the products. You can start with our free trial below.
FREE TRIAL: NFL pool picks from PoolGenius
Good luck in your pools this week!
