The Eagles' and 49ers' losses last week knocked more than a few people out of their NFL survivor pool, and it definitely shook up pick 'em pools. If you made it through last week's upset-filled gauntlet, we're here to help with your Week 7 NFL picks.
In this post, we highlight five Week 7 picks that can help you move up the standings in your 2023 football pick 'em or confidence pool. We also give an overview of the NFL survivor pool pick landscape for Week 7.
Week 7 gives us a lot of close matchups. In fact, nine of the 13 games this week currently have a point spread of three points or fewer. When that happens, paying attention to pick popularity numbers can give you a big expected value edge in your pools.
This analysis is brought to you by PoolGenius, the only site that harnesses the power of algorithms to maximize your edge in football pools. Since 2017, PoolGenius subscribers have reported winning prizes in football pick’em contests and NFL survivor pools more than three times as often as expected.
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Week 7 NFL Pick 'em Pool Picks: Tips, strategy
How we identify NFL Week 7 value picks
To increase your edge in football pools, making good predictions is only part of the battle. Besides, point spreads provide a quick and accurate assessment of each team's chance to win, and very few people can consistently out-predict Vegas odds.
The bigger edge in pick ’em pools comes from learning how to apply game theory because you can only rise in the standings if you score points that your opponents miss. To do that, you need to identify the smartest opportunities to differentiate your picks from the crowd, such as:
- Making a highly unpopular pick that is worth a calculated gamble
- Avoiding trendy upset picks where risk is higher but reward is lower
The picks below provide some of the best chances to differentiate your NFL Week 7 picks by taking on little or no additional risk. In a season-long pool, you almost certainly shouldn't pick all five of them (especially the upset picks) because it would be too risky overall, but they’re all worthy of consideration in certain situations.
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data are accurate as of 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 18, but data often changes between publication time and kickoff. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates all data multiple times per day.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Detroit Lions)
Point Spread: -3
Pick Popularity: 40%
Category: Value favorite
The Lions are off to their best start in a long time at 5-1, and the bandwagon is loading up this week. The Ravens are still 4-2, though, despite suffering two tough losses where they had the lead late. So, if you trust betting market odds, there’s clear value in sticking with the favorite here, especially with 60 percent of the public preferring the upset pick that is less likely to happen.
WEEK 7 DFS LINEUPS: FanDuel | DraftKings
New Orleans Saints (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
Point Spread: -1
Pick Popularity: 35%
Category: Value favorite
In another edition of some hot AFC South vs. NFC South action, the public is again swinging wildly. This time, they are all over the visiting Jaguars going against the Saints and might not be fully appreciating that Trevor Lawrence is battling a knee injury on a short week.
The Jaguars benefited from a lot of Colts miscues in their 37-20 win last week, and Jacksonville wasn't very good on offense, failing to gain a first down on seven of their eight second-half possessions. The Saints, meanwhile, put up their most yards of the season but did it in a losing effort, as they had two turnovers and two missed kicks in a close loss.
With the public heavily on the Jags, you are getting great value on the Saints to march in the Dome on a short week.
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Atlanta Falcons (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Point Spread: +2.5
Pick Popularity: 16%
Category: Value gamble in weekly prize pools
The public is having a bit of a love/hate relationship with the Falcons. Last week, for the first time since Week 1, the public picked Atlanta more often than the opponent (at a very high rate, and we listed Washington in this article as a value pick). Atlanta lost, and now the public is back to picking against them.
However, Atlanta actually gained over 200 yards more than the Commanders and held Washington to under 200 yards. It was the first game all season that a team lost while holding its opponent under 200 yards. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, was outgained again (by the Lions), and its +7 turnover margin is partly to thank for their decent start this year.
We've seen a lot of mediocre play in the NFC South so far. Atlanta wasn't as bad as the final score implied last week, and the public is significantly underrating the Falcons' win odds in Week 7.
WEEK 7 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Denver Broncos (vs. Green Bay Packers)
Point Spread: +1
Popularity: 27%
Category: Unpopular toss-up
Green Bay has been a little overvalued in recent weeks. As we've noted several times, the Packers' scoring output was ahead of what you'd expect given their yardage gained, and not even the Raiders' win over Green Bay changed that.
So, you can get the very unpopular Broncos, who made significant progress on defense in holding Kansas City to 19 points last week, as a value toss-up with over 70 percent of a typical pool going with the Packers.
Indianapolis Colts (vs. Cleveland Browns)
Point Spread: +2
Popularity: 26%
Category: Value gamble in weekly prize pools
Cleveland is coming off a big upset win over San Francisco. As of now, it is expected that P.J. Walker will start at QB for Cleveland in place of Deshaun Watson (shoulder) again, but you should watch where this line moves as more info comes out this week.
Based on the current odds, the Colts make for a compelling upset play at only around 25-percent pick popularity. As we noted when discussing the Jaguars, the final score margin in the Colts-Jags game was driven by a few high-leverage plays and turnovers. The Colts actually had more yards than the Jaguars in that game, so they're being underrated this week.
Week 7 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Top picks, strategy
The limited number of larger favorites in Week 7 means quite limited options in survivor pools, and the public is going heavily on the Seahawks.
As our data below shows, Seattle's sky-high pick popularity gives them a negative Expected Value this week. Not picking the Seahawks means that you could survive while over half of your pool gets knocked out, and that's a compelling scenario that doesn't happen very often.
The problem is that most other picks are much riskier in comparison, so it all depends how much of a gamble you're comfortable taking.
Get All Our Week 7 NFL Picks
Maximizing your edge in football pick ’em and survivor contests requires a lot of data, math, and time. Besides having to analyze information like win odds and pick popularity to identify value picks, you also need to understand the optimal level of risk to take with your Week 7 entries.
That's why PoolGenius built the Football Pick 'em Picks and NFL Survivor Picks products. They are the only tools that provide customized weekly pick recommendations for football pick 'em and survivor pools, using algorithms that give you the best chance to win.
Try them out for free, and good luck with your NFL Week 7 picks!
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