Quarterback injuries continue to be the story of the league, and in turn, the story of NFL pick 'em pools and survivor pools. Knowing who's in, who's out, and who's actually decent will go a long way toward being successful with your Week 10 NFL picks.
In this post we highlight five NFL Week 10 picks that can help you move up the standings in your 2023 football pick 'em or confidence pool. We also give an overview of the NFL survivor pool pick landscape. Week 10 gives us the biggest underdog of the year (the woeful Giants), a thrilling Thursday Night game between teams with three combined wins (Bears vs. Panthers), and the likely season debut of QB Kyler Murray with Arizona. It also has several close matchups that the public has strong opinions on.
This analysis is brought to you by PoolGenius, the only site that harnesses the power of algorithms to maximize your edge in football pools. Since 2017, PoolGenius subscribers have reported winning prizes in football pick ’em contests and NFL survivor pools more than three times as often as expected.
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Week 10 NFL Pick 'em Pool Picks: Tips, strategy
How we identify NFL Week 10 value picks
To increase your edge in football pools, making good predictions is only part of the battle. Besides, point spreads provide a quick and accurate assessment of each team's chance to win, and very few people can consistently out-predict Vegas odds.
The bigger edge in pick ’em pools comes from learning how to apply game theory because you can only rise in the standings if you score points that your opponents miss. To do that, you need to identify the smartest opportunities to differentiate your picks from the crowd, such as:
- Making a highly unpopular pick that is worth a calculated gamble
- Avoiding trendy upset picks where risk is higher but reward is lower
The picks below provide some of the best chances to differentiate your NFL Week 10 picks by taking on little or no additional risk. In a season-long pool, you almost certainly shouldn't pick all five of them (especially the upset picks) because it would be too risky overall, but they’re all worthy of consideration in certain situations.
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data are accurate as of 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Nov. 8, but data often changes between publication time and kickoff. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates all data multiple times per day.
Arizona Cardinals (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
Point Spread: +1.5
Pick Popularity: 20%
Category: Value gamble in weekly prize pools
QB Kyler Murray (knee) is expected to return for Arizona this week, barring any setbacks, and that is why the point spread for this game is much closer than you might expect.
However, the public is relentlessly piling on the 1-8 Cardinals, coming off a shutout loss at Cleveland. With just 20 percent of the public taking Arizona in a game expected to be close, the Cardinals make for a pretty compelling pick as one of the smaller underdogs this week.
WEEK 10 DFS LINEUPS: FanDuel | DraftKings
Green Bay Packers (at Pittsburgh Steelers)
Point Spread: +3
Pick Popularity: 7%
Category: Value gamble in weekly prize pools
The Steelers have some serious voodoo working right now, as they have been out-gained by their opponent in every single game this year yet somehow sit at 5-3. They rank 29th in offensive yards per game and 31st in defensive yards allowed per game.
We're not getting carried away with the Pittsburgh love like the public. Pittsburgh's 93-percent pick popularity is on par with two six-point favorites in Week 10 (Baltimore and Seattle), and the Steelers aren't as safe as the public thinks. Their luck could shift soon.
The Packers are the road 'dog here, and rightfully so, but with extremely low popularity, they make for a reasonable upset play in weekly contests where you're looking to differentiate your entry.
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New York Jets (at Las Vegas Raiders)
Point Spread: -1
Pick Popularity: 38%
Category: Unpopular toss-up
The Raiders won their first game after firing coach Josh McDaniels, and the Jets laid a mistake-filled egg on Monday Night Football against the Chargers.
Recency bias has the public leaning toward the Raiders in this one, but the Jets have now moved into the favorite role in the betting markets. New York provides decent contrarian pick value in Sin City.
WEEK 10 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
New Orleans Saints (@ Minnesota Vikings)
Point Spread: -2.5
Popularity: 52%
Category: Value favorite
In the Week 10 game with the most even split of public picks, you want to look to the favorite for the slight value edge. That would be the Saints, who face a Minnesota team coming off a last-second win over Atlanta with Joshua Dobbs taking over at QB.
The excitement of Minnesota's win is likely inflating the public's sentiment just enough to provide a bit of value for sticking with favored New Orleans.
New England Patriots (vs. Indianapolis Colts in Germany)
Point Spread: +1
Popularity: 26%
Category: Unpopular toss-up
Our models like New England this week in the matchup against the Colts in Germany. Regardless, this point spread is another close one, and the public is heavily on the barely favored Colts.
Indianapolis is coming off a road win at Carolina where it got two pick-sixes and gained fewer than 200 yards on offense, so the final score of that 27-13 win is not necessarily indicative of a good offensive performance.
Week 10 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Top picks, strategy
Last week, we saw most of the public's NFL survivor pool picks on Cleveland and New Orleans. Both teams won, which made for a high survival week.
This week, we have the largest spread of the year so far, as the Cowboys catch the Giants without their top two quarterbacks. As a result, Dallas has shot up to the top spot in nationwide survivor pick popularity at 43 percent. The Bengals (33-percent pick popularity) are the other popular option going against Houston, so once again the public picks are concentrated on two teams.
After Dallas and Cincinnati, no team is drawing more than six percent of survivor picks in Week 10. What's left is a combination of teams that have already been heavily picked (Buffalo, Baltimore, and Seattle) and riskier teams with low future value (Chicago, Pittsburgh, and more).
See the survivor analysis tool at the bottom of this post to get all the relevant data to make an informed decision.
Get All Our Week 10 NFL Picks
Maximizing your edge in football pick ’em and survivor contests requires a lot of data, math, and time. Besides having to analyze information like win odds and pick popularity to identify value picks, you also need to understand the optimal level of risk to take with your Week 10 entries.
That's why PoolGenius built the Football Pick 'em Picks and NFL Survivor Picks products. They are the only tools that provide customized weekly pick recommendations for football pick 'em and survivor pools, using algorithms that give you the best chance to win.
Try them out for free, and good luck with your NFL Week 10 picks!
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