This isn't just any wild-card weekend. This is Super Wild-Card weekend.
OK, so it's been a Super Wild-Card weekend for a while now, but this year's group of games has the potential to be a memorable batch. It features a mix of perennial underdogs making the playoffs like the Browns, Texans and Lions, and some familiar faces squaring off against former teams.
Several of the teams playing this weekend had a glorified bye week in the final week of the season. The Browns, Rams and Chiefs each rested starters with playoff spots locked up. Others, like the Texans, Bills, Steelers and Packers battled for their playoff lives in the final week of the season, and will come in hoping to carry over momentum of Week 18 wins.
Each week, Sporting News' model will project every game in the NFL 10,000 times to generate the number of times a team wins a matchup and calculate the win probability. The model adjusts after each week as it learns more about each team and that team's quarterback.
MORE: SN experts make playoff, Super Bowl picks
Listed for each game is its projected spread, according to the model, and a team's win probability. We've also included updated playoff and Super Bowl odds at the bottom. The odds listed with each game are not based on bookmakers, but rather how the model sees the game playing out. We will then compare the model's odds with those from Caesars Sportsbook, to see how bookmakers are seeing the week's games.
Here's how the model sees NFL wild-card weekend shaping up.
NFL picks, predictions for wild-card playoffs
Texans (PK) vs. Browns
Win probability: 50.6%, Texans
Betting markets are liking the Browns to win, with Caesars listing Cleveland as 2.5-point favorites in the contest. There's plenty of reason for confidence in the Browns. Their defense finished the season as the best by EPA (expected points added) per play, and they'll have the chance to get after an offensive line that has at times struggled to protect C.J. Stroud.
But the model is leaning slightly toward Houston, setting the line at a pick 'em and giving just a fraction of a percentage in favor of the Texans. The Browns struggled away from home (3-6) and the model is giving a significant quarterback edge to Stroud over Joe Flacco, though it does not take into account playoff experience, which could help make a difference. If played on a neutral site, the model would take the Browns.
Chiefs (-4) vs. Dolphins
Win probability: 65.6%, Chiefs
It has not been the best season for the Chiefs. They limped into the playoffs having scored more than 25 points only twice over their final 10 games of the season. But the Dolphins are also coming in looking sluggish, having blown a multi-game lead in the AFC East by losing three of their final five games of the season.
The biggest question coming into this game will be how many Dolphins are out due to injuries. Key players like Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert and Xavien Howard missed time late in the year, and would be crucial to Miami coming out on top on the road. When healthy, the Dolphins have a fearsome offense (fourth in EPA per play), but Kansas City's defense (sixth in EPA per play) is well equipped to slow them down. The model and Caesars are in near agreement, with the Chiefs set as 4-point and 3.5-point favorites, respectively.
Bills (-12) vs. Steelers
Win probability: 84.1%, Bills
Buffalo and Pittsburgh were in similar positions in the final weekend of the season: playoff spots on the line. Both did enough to get into the playoffs. The difference? Buffalo went from uncertainty to the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Pittsburgh snuck in as the No. 7 seed. And in the widest seeding gap in the AFC, it's no surprise to see both the model (Bills, -12) and Caesars (Bills, -10) favoring Buffalo so heavily.
The Steelers have made the playoffs three times since the start of the 2017 season. They've given up at least 42 points in all three of them and getting blown out in back-to-back playoff games. Without T.J. Watt, the challenge of slowing down Josh Allen and the Bills is only going to be more difficult.
Cowboys (-11) vs. Packers
Win probability: 82.6%, Cowboys
Mike McCarthy has two wins against the Cowboys in the playoffs as head coach of the Packers. Now, he'll look to send the young Packers squad home in the first round. The Cowboys have been a consistently disappointing team in the postseason in recent years, having yet to get past the divisional round since 1995.
Expectations are sky high in Dallas, and it will start by exorcising some past playoff demons against Green Bay. The Packers could be a sneaky solid team against whom to contend, ranking second in offensive EPA per play since Week 12. The model likes the Cowboys to open with a win, favoring Dallas by 11 points, while Caesars has the Cowboys as 7.5-point favorites.
Lions (-8) vs. Rams
Win probability: 77.4%, Lions
This is where the model and Caesars differ the most. The Rams are as hot as anyone in football. Since Week 12, Los Angeles ranks fourth in offensive EPA per play. Matthew Stafford and his receivers, along with breakout running back Kyren Williams, make up a surprisingly stout offense, particularly for a team that came into the season with limited expectations.
The Lions have been among the NFL's best offenses all season. They rank eighth in offensive EPA per play this season, though they've had their worst on defense, ranking 21st in defensive EPA per play. The model is confident backing Jared Goff against his former team as 8-point favorites, while Caesars has Detroit as only 3.5-point favorites.
Eagles (-8) vs. Buccaneers
Win probability: 74%, Eagles
Another matchup in which the model and sportsbook differ plenty. Caesars likes the Eagles to win on the road, but only by 2.5 points. The model, however, lists the Eagles as 8-point favorites to win against the Buccaneers.
The model is looking at the entire body of work, and overall, Philadelphia has been a strong team at 11-6 with the No. 7 offense in the league per EPA per play. But these teams have been trending in the opposite direction of late, with Philadelphia losing five of its past six and Tampa Bay winning five of its past six.
Updated NFL projections 2024
AFC
| Team | WC win% | Div win% | Conf win% | SB win% |
| Ravens | -- | 86.5% | 63.3% | 34.4% |
| Bills | 84.1% | 58.8% | 20.7% | 8.3% |
| Chiefs | 65.6% | 28.4% | 9.3% | 3.7% |
| Texans | 50.6% | 7.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Browns | 49.4% | 8.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Dolphins | 34.4% | 8.6% | 3% | 1.1% |
| Steelers | 15.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
NFC
| Team | WC win% | Div win% | Conf win% | SB win% |
| 49ers | -- | 79.2% | 53.4% | 29.1% |
| Cowboys | 82.6% | 46.5% | 16.9% | 8% |
| Lions | 77.4% | 38.4% | 16.4% | 8.2% |
| Buccaneers | 26% | 3.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Eagles | 74% | 26.2% | 11% | 5.1% |
| Rams | 22.6% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Packers | 17.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |