NFL fans hoping for some parity are likely a bit dismayed looking at the standings. Right now, it's the Chiefs and Eagles in their respective conferences, and then everyone else.
Kansas City and Philadelphia, last year's Super Bowl teams, both won 31-17 against the Chargers and Dolphins, respectively, to both move to 6-1. The 49ers lost a stunner in Minnesota, dropping to 5-2, joining the Dolphins, Jaguars and Ravens as the next group of teams behind the current leaders.
Those two teams aren't exactly facing steep challenges in Week 8; the Chiefs are heading on the road to face the 2-5 Broncos, while the Eagles will face the 3-4 Commanders in Washington. Could 7-1 be coming up for both teams? Wins by those teams are currently the betting favorites.
MORE WEEK 8 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread
Each week, Sporting News' model will project every game in the NFL 10,000 times to generate the number of times a team wins a matchup and calculate the win probability. The model adjusts after each week as it learns more about each team and that team's quarterback.
Listed for each game is its projected spread, according to the model, and a team's win probability. We've also included updated playoff and Super Bowl odds at the bottom. The odds listed with each game are not based on bookmakers, but rather how the model sees the game playing out. We will then compare the model's odds with those from BetMGM, to see how bookmakers are seeing the week's games.
Here's how the model sees Week 8 shaping up.
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NFL picks, predictions Week 8
Bills (-11) vs. Buccaneers
Win probability: 82.4%, Bills
The Bills have hit a bit of a rough patch, narrowly beating the Giants and then falling to the Patriots in New England. But the Buccaneers' offense that started the season with 20 points in each of its first four games has now fallen short of 14 points in back-to-back losses. Back in Buffalo, this could be a get-well game for the Bills, with BetMGM listing the Bills as 8.5-point favorites and the model favoring Buffalo by 11.
Texans (-1) vs. Panthers
Win probability: 54.7%, Texans
This game has plenty of draft excitement, with C.J. Stroud and the Texans taking on Bryce Young and the Panthers. But the Texans, sitting at 3-3, are clearly the team further along in 2023, while the Panthers are at 0-6 and are still seeking win No. 1 this season. Both BetMGM and the model favor Houston, with the bookmaker giving the Texans a full field-goal advantage and the model having them as just 1-point favorites.
Saints (-2) vs. Colts
Win probability: 56.4%, Saints
The Saints' offense only slowly began to get picked up late against the Jaguars, while the Colts put up 38 points against the Browns' feared defense. But Indianapolis' defense has been miserable — it did give up 39 points to a P.J. Walker-led Browns team — while New Orleans' defense ranks ninth in points allowed this season. The model and BetMGM disagree with how to view this one: the model has the Saints as 2-point favorites and BetMGM favors the Colts by 1.
Cowboys (-8) vs. Rams
Win probability: 76.9%, Cowboys
Puka Nacua might keep making plays, but the Rams' offense still sputtered at home against the Steelers. Dallas, a top five team in both points scored and points allowed, is coming off a bye week and will be hosting Los Angeles as a well-rested team looking to stay in the NFC East race. The Cowboys are an 8-point favorite per the model, and are only 6.5-point favorites per BetMGM.
Vikings (-2) vs. Packers
Win probability: 57%, Vikings
It wasn't long ago the Vikings and Packers were the powers in the NFC North. Now, both are fighting for .500 and the second-place spot in the division. Both are coming off opposite results: the Vikings beat the vaunted 49ers, while the Packers fell to a lackluster Broncos team. Minnesota is favored by the model by 2, but BetMGM still has the Packers as 1-point favorites.
Dolphins (-8) vs. Patriots
Win probability: 75.7%, Dolphins
The Dolphins are now 0-2 against teams with a winning record. Against teams with a losing record? 5-0, with an average score margin of 40.6-21.8. Miami beat the Patriots 24-17 in New England in Week 2, and are similarly favored by a touchdown again in Week 8, with BetMGM setting the spread at 9.5-points and the model putting it at an 8-point spread.
Jets (-2) vs. Giants
Win probability: 57.5%, Jets
The Battle of MetLife Stadium comes with both teams feeling good. The Jets beat the Eagles, then went on a bye, while the Giants barely lost to the Bills in Buffalo before beating the Commanders to move to 2-5. Zach Wilson vs. Tyrod Taylor is not the quarterback battle many would have expected at the start of the year, but it's what's on tap on Sunday. The Jets' defense feels like it could be the difference-maker, with the model (Jets by 2) and BetMGM (Jets by 2.5) posting similar lines on the game.
Titans (-4) vs. Falcons
Win probability: 63.8%, Titans
This is by far the biggest discrepancy of the week between the model and betting market. The model sees the Titans as 4-point favorites, while BetMGM favors the Falcons by 2.5. The model is dinging the Falcons for Desmond Ridder's struggles, though without Ryan Tannehill, the model's line would swing toward Atlanta, given the uncertainty of a potential duo of Malik Willis and Will Levis.
Jaguars (-1) vs. Steelers
Win probability: 52.6%, Jaguars
Perhaps the highlight of the early window, the Jaguars hit the road to Pittsburgh to take on a Steelers team that continues to find ways to win despite an uninspiring offense. Jacksonville has struggled to maintain consistency at times this season, but with Trevor Lawrence and his array of weapons, it feels like a lot of firepower for Kenny Pickett — or more specifically Matt Canada — to keep up with. Jacksonville is favored by both the model (1-point) and betMGM (2.5) despite playing in Pittsburgh.
Eagles (-10) vs. Commanders
Win probability: 80.3%, Eagles
The Eagles beat the Dolphins in one of their most impressive wins of the season, but this offense still does not look to be at the same dominant levels it was at last year. It should still be enough against a Commanders team fresh off a seven-point performance against the Giants. The model and BetMGM agree to favor Philadelphia, though differ in how much, with the model making the Eagles 10-point favorites to the bookmakers' 6.5-point spread.
Seahawks (-2) vs. Browns
Win probability: 57.4%, Seahawks
The Browns are off to a 4-2 start to the season despite plenty of uncertainty at quarterback with the lingering injury of Deshaun Watson. The most recent win came against the Colts with Walker leading the way to a 39-point performance after Watson was knocked out early. The Seahawks continue to look like a contender yet again, and bounced back with a solid performance against the Cardinals. Between the QB uncertainty and the long road trip, the model (Seahawks by 2) and BetMGM (Seahawks by 3) are nearly in complete agreement.
Ravens (-12) vs. Cardinals
Win probability: 84.1%, Ravens
The Cardinals almost never feel like they're out of it, but they still have just the one win this season. The Ravens looked at their best on Sunday, rolling past the Lions in a 38-6 mauling. The game is in Arizona, but that might only help to keep this one closer, with the model setting the line at a 12-point Raven advantage and BetMGM making Baltimore 8.5-point favorites.
Chiefs (-11) vs. Broncos
Win probability: 82.1%, Chiefs
Give credit to the Broncos. They were huge underdogs against Kansas City on the road and kept the Chiefs in check, still falling 19-8. Now, they'll face off again, this time in Denver. The model had the Chiefs as 16-point favorites against Denver in Week 6, but have it closer this time as just an 11-point Chiefs advantage. BetMGM has it even closer, favoring the Chiefs only by 7.5 points.
49ers (-4) vs. Bengals
Win probability: 65.1%, 49ers
This feels like it could be one of the better games of the weekend. Joe Burrow started to look healthy against the Cardinals and Seahawks, and then had a bye week to further rest up. The 49ers, on the other hand, have dropped games to the Browns and Vikings as Brock Purdy has looked a bit shaky. Still, traveling west is often a tall task, and this could be a nice bounceback chance for the 49ers, who are favored by 4 from the model and 5.5 by BetMGM.
Chargers (-6) vs. Bears
Win probability: 70.2%, Chargers
The Bears are still without Justin Fields, but Tyson Bagent looked solid in his place, helping beat the Raiders 30-12. The Chargers stumbled against the Chiefs, falling 31-17. But in Los Angeles, Justin Herbert vs. Bagent and a Bears team more likely to pick first than reach the playoffs feels like a mismatch. The model is giving the Bears a bit more credit as only 6-point underdogs, but BetMGM has the Chargers favored by 8.5.
Lions (-8) vs. Raiders
Win probability: 76.9%, Lions
The Lions had gotten off to a hot start at 5-1, but were dismantled by the Ravens in Week 7. Somehow, the Raiders probably had it worse in Week 7 as they gave up 30 points to a Bagent-led Bears team. On "Monday Night Football," the Lions are favored to get right back in the win column in a big way against Las Vegas in Detroit, with the model having them favored by 8 and BetMGM putting them as 8.5-point favorites.
Updated NFL projections 2023
AFC East
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Dolphins | 11-6 | 53.2% | 25.5% | 78.7% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 2.6% |
| Bills | 10-7 | 29.2% | 32.5% | 61.7% | 1.2% | 5.4% | 2.6% |
| Jets | 9-8 | 16.8% | 21.8% | 38.5% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Patriots | 6-11 | 0.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
AFC North
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Ravens | 11-6 | 56.4% | 33.1% | 89.5% | 8.7% | 13.3% | 6.6% |
| Browns | 10-7 | 18.2% | 43.5% | 61.7% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| Steelers | 10-7 | 17.6% | 40.8% | 58.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Bengals | 9-8 | 7.9% | 28.7% | 36.6% | 0.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
AFC South
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Jaguars | 11-6 | 74.0% | 10.0% | 83.9% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 3.2% |
| Texans | 8-9 | 12.9% | 15.4% | 28.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Titans | 7-10 | 8.3% | 8.9% | 17.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Colts | 7-10 | 4.8% | 9.7% | 14.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
AFC West
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Chiefs | 14-3 | 98.7% | 1.0% | 99.7% | 76.2% | 56.3% | 30.5% |
| Chargers | 8-9 | 1.1% | 20.6% | 21.6% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Raiders | 7-10 | 0.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Broncos | 6-11 | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC East
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Eagles | 13-4 | 74.2% | 24.6% | 98.8% | 42.8% | 34.6% | 17.7% |
| Cowboys | 11-6 | 25.4% | 62.9% | 88.4% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 4.8% |
| Giants | 6-11 | 0.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Commanders | 6-11 | 0.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC North
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Lions | 11-6 | 77.9% | 15.3% | 93.2% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 5.3% |
| Vikings | 9-8 | 18.1% | 36.9% | 55.0% | 0.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Packers | 7-10 | 2.5% | 11.9% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Bears | 6-11 | 1.5% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
NFC South
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Falcons | 9-8 | 46.7% | 14.4% | 61.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Saints | 9-8 | 38.8% | 14.6% | 53.5% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Buccaneers | 7-10 | 13.9% | 10.2% | 24.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Panthers | 4-13 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC West
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| 49ers | 12-5 | 82.6% | 15.3% | 97.9% | 28.2% | 31.9% | 16.7% |
| Seahawks | 10-7 | 15.5% | 53.3% | 68.8% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 1.9% |
| Rams | 7-10 | 1.9% | 24.3% | 26.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Cardinals | 3-14 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
