The Chiefs, Bills, Bengals and Jets entered the 2023 NFL season with Super Bowl aspirations. Three of the four lost — two by blowouts. Yet for as bad as the three losses by the top-tier AFC contenders were, none saw a dip in their Super Bowl and playoff odds as stark as the Jets.
New York entered the year as one of the projected wild-card teams, per Sporting News' projection model, with a 3.7 percent chance to win the Super Bowl. But the injury to Aaron Rodgers dropped the Jets' playoff odds down from 59.7 percent before Week 1 to 36.5 percent heading into Week 2. The Super Bowl odds? Down to 1.1 percent, putting them ninth in the AFC.
NFL WEEK 2 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread
Each week, Sporting News' model will project every game in the NFL 10,000 times to generate the number of times a team wins a matchup and calculate the win probability. The model adjusts after each week as it learns more about each team and that team's quarterback. When the Jets replaced Rodgers with Zach Wilson, the model heavily penalized the team and took less stock into its narrow win over the Bills.
Listed for each game is its projected spread, according to the model, and a team's win probability. We've also included updated playoff and Super Bowl odds at the bottom. The odds listed with each game are not based on bookmakers, but rather how the model sees the game playing out.
Here's how the model sees the second week of the season playing out.
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NFL picks, predictions Week 2
Eagles (-6) vs. Vikings
Win probability: 70.5%, Eagles
The Eagles might have looked a touch rusty on the road in New England to begin the season, but make no mistake: the model still sees Philadelphia as a juggernaut. The Vikings, on the other hand, just lost to Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. Not exactly a promising start to the season. As such, Philadelphia is among the biggest favorites in Week 2.
Result: Eagles 34, Vikings 28
Packers (-1) to beat Falcons
Win probability: 53.1%, Packers
Are you loving the Packers? The model's not quite there yet, but it did give Green Bay a spike from a projected last-place finish (albeit, narrowly) all the way up to second in the NFC North with the Jordan Love era off to a hot start. It also likes the Falcons after an impressive start to the year against the Panthers. The model is taking Green Bay in a close one.
Bills (-9) to beat Raiders
Win probability: 77.8%, Bills
No one is a bigger favorite than the Bills despite a crushing loss to the Zach Wilson-led Jets. But Buffalo is still a heavyweight in the AFC, and the model remains low on the Raiders despite a close win against the Broncos on the road. The game being in Buffalo only makes this more lopsided in the Bills' favor.
Bengals (-3) to beat Ravens
Win probability: 61.1%, Bengals
The Bengals were completely dismantled at the hands of the Browns to start the season, and their odds have taken a hit for it. The Ravens might have beat the Texans, but they also sustained several injuries, including a season-ending one to JK Dobbins. The model does not take into account Baltimore's injuries, but between home-field advantage for Cincinnati and its extensive success, it remains a field goal favorite.
Lions (-5) to beat Seahawks
Win probability: 67.4%, Lions
The Lions have taken the NFL by storm. The preseason hype built into a crescendo when they knocked off the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium to officially kick off the 2023 season. Now, the Detroit faithful get to see their team host the Seahawks in a game where the Lions come in as comfortable favorites against a squad that was picked apart by a Cooper Kupp-less Rams team.
Texans (-1) to beat Colts
Win probability: 54.9%, Texans
Neither the Texans nor the Colts are expected to make it to the playoffs this year, but this still has all the makings of an entertaining game. First-round rookies C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson face off after each made promising debuts in Week 1. The model barely favor the Texans and Stroud in the AFC South showdown, with home field helping put Houston over the edge.
Chiefs (-3) to beat Jaguars
Win probability: 61%, Chiefs
The Chiefs dropped their home-opener, and it doesn't get any easier with a divisional round rematch against the Jaguars. Jacksonville pulled away late against the Colts and Trevor Lawrence continues to look like a star quarterback in this league. But Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, even heading into Jacksonville, get the edge in the model's eyes.
Chargers (-2) to beat Titans
Win probability: 55.7%, Chargers
The Chargers faced a huge early test against the Dolphins, and while the offense stayed in the fight, the defense was carved up by Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill in the losing effort. The Titans didn't exactly show much offensive prowess in their losing effort to the Saints, however, and the model expects Los Angeles to come out ahead on the road.
Bears (-1) to beat Buccaneers
Win probability: 52.9%, Bears
This is one of the largest gaps between the model and bookmakers. Oddsmakers have the Buccaneers favored to win this one after Mayfield looked promising against the Vikings, coupled with the Bears' disastrous home outing against the Packers. The model isn't giving up on the Bears just yet — with faith that Justin Fields will turn it around against a more questionable defense, even if on the road.
Giants (-8) to beat Cardinals
Win probability: 75.7%, Giants
No team was more thoroughly smacked around than the Giants, who were waxed by the Cowboys on "Sunday Night Football" to begin the season. Fortunately for New York, it gets a Week 2 clash against the Cardinals, actively attempting to be the worst team in the league and get next year's No. 1 pick. Arizona nearly beat the Commanders last week, but the model still sees New York as comfortable bounce-back picks.
49ers (-5) to beat Rams
Win probability: 66.7%, 49ers
Coming off a dismal 2022, expectations were low for the Rams. But Matthew Stafford turned in a vintage performance throwing to Tutu Atwell and Puka Nacua as Los Angeles stunned the Seahawks in Seattle. This week, however, the Rams face a 49ers team that tore apart a solid Steelers' squad, and vaulted up as the new Super Bowl favorites, per the model, after losses to Kansas City, Buffalo and Cincinnati. No doubt San Francisco gets the edge on the road.
Cowboys (-5) to beat Jets
Win probability: 68.8%, Cowboys
With Rodgers, this might have been a different story. Or at least a closer one. The Cowboys' utter demolition of the Giants coupled with their preseason expectations likely would have kept them as favorites over the Jets in Dallas regardless of the quarterback. But Wilson throwing passes instead of Rodgers makes the Cowboys a comfortable favorite at home.
Broncos (-4) to beat Commanders
Win probability: 62.7%, Broncos
The Sean Payton era in Denver began with a dud as the Broncos still appear to be a dysfunctional offense. But the Commanders barely squeaked past a dreadful Cardinals team at home, and though Sam Howell had his moments, the overall stat line wasn't exactly promising. The model expects Week 2 to favor the Broncos at home.
Dolphins (-1) to beat Patriots
Win probability: 54.8%, Dolphins
That Dolphins passing offense sure looks scary. Tagovailoa looked like an MVP candidate and Hill sure looked to be on his way to a 2,000-yard season. That's why it's a bit surprising to see the Dolphins only as 1-point favorites, per the model, against a Patriots team that came into the year expected to be fourth in the AFC East. But Mac Jones and New England looked better than expected against Philadelphia, and could hold their own at home on "Sunday Night Football."
Saints (-1) to beat Panthers
Win probability: 52.3%, Saints
The Saints have been one of the model's darlings since the preseason, when it had New Orleans as the runaway division favorite and with the fourth-best odds to win the NFC. After the Saints' so-so showing against the Titans, however, the model is expressing some skepticism with the Saints on the road in Charlotte. The Panthers are still viewed as home underdogs, however, after their own lackluster Week 1 performance.
Browns (-2) to beat Steelers
Win probability: 57.1%, Browns
The Browns stunned the Bengals in a 24-3 walloping that has only added kerosene to the 2023 hype surrounding Cleveland. The Browns were originally heading into this game as slight underdogs to the Steelers, but between Cleveland's huge Week 1 win and the Steelers' blowout loss at home to the 49ers, the Browns move in as the favorites to win this AFC North showdown on Monday.
Updated NFL projections 2023
AFC East
| Team | xW-L | Division win% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Bills | 10-7 | 48.1% | 22.8% | 70.9% | 11.5% | 14.3% | 7.5% |
| Dolphins | 9-8 | 30.2% | 23.8% | 54% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.4% |
| Jets | 8-9 | 16% | 20.5% | 36.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Patriots | 7-10 | 5.8% | 8.5% | 14.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
AFC North
| Team | xW-L | Division win% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Bengals | 11-6 | 41.2% | 34.8% | 76% | 16.3% | 18.4% | 10.8% |
| Ravens | 10-7 | 29.1% | 35.3% | 64.4% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 4% |
| Browns | 10-7 | 22.5% | 33.9% | 56.4% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 2.6% |
| Steelers | 8-9 | 7.2% | 19.2% | 26.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
AFC South
| Team | xW-L | Division win% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Jaguars | 10-7 | 63.6% | 9.6% | 73.2% | 11% | 7.9% | 3.9% |
| Titans | 8-9 | 24.2% | 12.8% | 37% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Colts | 6-11 | 6% | 4.6% | 10.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Texans | 6-11 | 6.2% | 3.7% | 9.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
AFC West
| Team | xW-L | Division win% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Chiefs | 11-6 | 68.9% | 16.3% | 85.2% | 25.3% | 27.3% | 14.4% |
| Chargers | 9-8 | 16.8% | 25.2% | 42% | 3% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
| Raiders | 8-9 | 9.2% | 18.2% | 27.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Broncos | 7-10 | 5.2% | 10.8% | 16% | 0.5% | 1% | 0.5% |
NFC East
| Team | xW-L | Division win% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Eagles | 11-6 | 50.5% | 34.1% | 84.6% | 18.9% | 20.9% | 9.9% |
| Cowboys | 11-6 | 40.7% | 37.6% | 78.3% | 15% | 15.3% | 7% |
| Giants | 8-9 | 6.5% | 21.1% | 27.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Commanders | 6-11 | 2.3% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
NFC North
| Team | xW-L | Division win% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Lions | 11-6 | 57.7% | 18.3% | 76% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 4.9% |
| Packers | 8-9 | 17.8% | 20.2% | 38% | 2% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Vikings | 8-9 | 16.4% | 18.9% | 35.3% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Bears | 7-10 | 8.2% | 11.9% | 20.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
NFC South
| Team | xW-L | Division win% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Saints | 11-6 | 61.3% | 18.5% | 79.8% | 13.2% | 10% | 4.6% |
| Falcons | 9-8 | 26.2% | 26.2% | 52.4% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Panthers | 7-10 | 8.9% | 14.7% | 23.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Buccaneers | 6-11 | 3.6% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
NFC West
| Team | xW-L | Division win% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| 49ers | 12-5 | 77.9% | 12.9% | 90.8% | 28.3% | 28.2% | 14.8% |
| Seahawks | 8-9 | 11.4% | 24% | 35.4% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Rams | 8-9 | 10.4% | 24% | 34.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Cardinals | 4-13 | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
