It’s free agency time in the NFL, and my message as always to current NFL general managers is buyers beware.
Especially when it comes to the three free-agent quarterbacks who wore Vikings purple last season.
With Minnesota apparently jumping into the Kirk Cousins derby, it's likely that Case Keenum, Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater all will hit the open market March 14. All three players come with question marks, yet they are intriguing based on their past production.
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Keenum is likely to be the most in demand. If the Vikings can't or choose not to sign Cousins, Keenum, the most durable of their 2017 QBs, is sure to be their choice.
This could be the case if another team (Jets?) steps up with an offer for Cousins too rich for Minnesota to match; the offer also could come close enough that Cousins chooses the Vikings as the better team. Keep in mind Minnesota has several key players due for contract extensions soon, including three stars on the league's top defense in Pro Bowl linebacker Anthony Barr, middle linebacker Eric Kendricks and strong pass rusher Danielle Hunter, plus Minneapolis Miracle star Stefon Diggs.
Cousins says he wants to play for a winning team, which puts Vikings GM Rick Spielman ahead of other suitors. But sometimes the money is just too good for a player to pass up, and the guarantees will be key.
Meanwhile, Keenum will attract some good offers coming off a career year in which he went 11-3 as the starter for the NFC North champs. He began the season as Bradford's $2 million backup but took over after Bradford's knee injury in the opening game. Keenum played well (22 TD passes, 7 interceptions, 98.3 rating). He also beat the Saints in the divisional playoffs with the last-second TD pass to Diggs. But Keenum and the entire team didn't play well in the NFC title-game loss to the Eagles.
Keenum, 30, is young enough to have plenty of good years left, and he showed good athleticism and big-play ability last year. He also is a fan favorite with his wholesome personality and is a feel-good story.
The knock on Keenum is that the Vikings were his third NFL team after previous stops with the Texans and Rams. Last season was his first time with big productivity. Will he play as well for another team if he leaves the Vikings, who supported him with an excellent receiving corps, a good offensive line and an effective running game?
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Quarterbacks who have had just one big year are always of major concern to GMs. The latest free-agent horror story was Houston's disastrous signing of Brock Osweiler two years ago following his one strong season with Denver.
Keenum is a lot better than Osweiler, and the former looks like a top-15 quarterback. The problem for Keenum: With a better supporting cast in Minnesota than he had in Washington, Cousins should be a top-10 QB; perhaps top five.
Vikings coach Mike Zimmer at last week’s Combine expressed the Keenum concerns when he said, "Is Case the guy that he was at Houston or the Rams, or is he the guy who played for us? Is it because he had a good team around him?"
Zimmer proceeded to reflect the organization's concerns about Bradford and Bridgewater, saying, "Can Sam stay healthy? Is Teddy what he was?"
When I think of Bradford, the often repeated line by Vikings Hall of Fame coach Bud Grant comes to mind: "A player can't achieve greatness without durability."
Typical for Bradford, he was terrific in the Vikings’ season-opening win over the Saints. Then his knee gave way once again, and his season was lost, as happened too often earlier in his career with the Rams.
Bradford is not coming back to Minnesota unless he’s a last resort if Cousins and Keenum are gone early in free agency. Even in that scenario, Bridgewater might be the preferred option. Zimmer called Bradford's knee "degenerative,” which teams will see when he takes their physicals.
But Bradford could be attractive to a team looking for a veteran starter to bridge the gap until one of this year's first-round quarterbacks are ready to play — shades of Bradford's Eagles experience in 2016 after Carson Wentz was drafted and before Bradford was traded to the Vikings.
The 30-year-old Bradford's days as an $18 million-per-year quarterback are over (at least for now), as he is likely to sign a one-year deal with a lower base salary and big incentives to be earned if he can stay on the field and lead a team to the playoffs. If he can pass a physical, I'd sign him under those terms and hope he's the player we saw against the Saints in last year's opener and over a productive 2016 season in Minnesota.
That Bradford trade to Minnesota was precipitated by Bridgewater's terrible knee injury late in training camp. A lot of people forget Bridgewater was a 2014 Vikings first-rounder and a Pro Bowl quarterback on a division-champion team in his second season. And if Blair Walsh had not missed a chip-shot field goal, Bridgewater would have a playoff win over the Seahawks on his resume. But even in that winning season, most of the credit for the Vikings’ success went to the defense and the last big year of Adrian Peterson's career.
Zimmer loves Bridgewater — “great kid, great competitor, a winner" — and if Cousins-to-Minnesota doesn't materialize, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Vikings sign Keenum as the starter and also bring back Bridgewater on a one-year deal (again with a lower base salary and big incentives) and let him compete with Keenum. Minnesota then could see whether Bridgewater’s rebuilt knee will hold up.
But in Bridgewater's case, if another team has more confidence in his knee, it could offer a better deal. As the old saying goes, all it takes is one of the 32 teams to step up in free agency.
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If the Vikings land the durable Cousins, it's hard to see Bridgewater wanting to return in a backup role with little chance of playing. He'll figure he's better off going to a team with which he has a chance to compete for a starting job, even if he's under a short-term, prove-it deal.
There's always risk in free agency. GMs prefer to build through the draft and augment with free agents who usually don't play as well with their new team as they did previously. Keenum last year was one of the exceptions to that general rule after the Vikings signed him as a second-tier free agent.
So many moving parts. So much uncertainty. New rumors every day on where players are headed until the moment of truth arrives, starting next week.
Welcome to free agency 2018, where Vikings quarterbacks, past and future, are among the biggest storylines.
Jeff Diamond is a former president of the Titans and former vice president/general manager of the Vikings. He was selected NFL Executive of the Year in 1998. Diamond is currently a business and sports consultant who also does broadcast and online media work. He makes speaking appearances to corporate/civic groups and college classes on Negotiation and Sports Business/Sports Management. He is the former chairman and CEO of The Ingram Group. Follow Jeff on Twitter: @jeffdiamondNFL.
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