Kirk Cousins, going on three offseasons, is a highly coveted commodity in NFL free agency. Although the top free-agent quarterback is willing to sign his tender should he be franchise-tagged by the Redskins for a third consecutive time, that's unlikely to happen at a $34.47 million price tag for 2018.
You can't blame Redskins coach Jay Gruden for wanting team officials to make a final, long-term decision on Cousins either way so the team can move forward with his near-future offensive plans. Given that Cousins turns 30 before next season and is coming off considerable regression in '17 without Sean McVay calling plays, you also can't blame Gruden for being lukewarm about keeping the QB.
Because of familiarity with the team and demand at the position, a return to the Redskins remains in play, as they are among the six teams with the necessary projected salary-cap space in '18 (according to OverTheCap.com) to sign Cousins.
Here's a look at the chances of Cousins landing with each of his best potential fits, from worst to best.
MORE: 2018 NFL mock draft
6. Buffalo Bills
5-percent chance
Buffalo made a big change in offensive philosophy by replacing OC Rick Dennison with Brian Daboll. It would have been a much better fit for Cousins had the Bills stayed with the West Coast — in which he has played his entire career. Daboll, however, comes from the Erhardt-Perkins school, which would come with a learning curve for Cousins. Otherwise, even for a '17 playoff team, there's limited appeal for Cousins in the supporting cast beyond running back LeSean McCoy. The coordinator change is an indication the Bills are leaning toward drafting a rookie high to replace Tyrod Taylor.
T-4 N.Y. Jets
10-percent chance
New York also fired its offensive coordinator, John Morton, to get out of its Air Coryell scheme that didn't quite mesh with Todd Bowles' defense-first mentality. Todd Haley, recently fired from the Steelers, is the strongest candidate to replace him and install Erhardt-Perkins.
The Jets, like the Bills, might be tipping their hand by tailoring their offense to the '18 draft class, which is full of big, strong-armed quarterbacks. The Jets just went through the retread route again with Josh McCown replacing Ryan Fitzpatrick and had limited results. They need to finally dive into a first-round QB and use their $74 million-plus cap space to upgrade at several other positions.
T-4. Washington Redskins
10-percent chance
It makes no sense for Washington to use two-thirds of its $52 million-plus in cap space to keep Cousins just for '18. His age should make the Redskins hesitate to pay him long-term now, too, and Gruden, firmly on the hot seat, is unlikely to keep attaching his tenure to a QB who frustrated him often in '17. Picking No. 13 overall in April, the Redskins will be in the wheelhouse for a preferred prospect at the position. It's smarter for their focus to be there, anyway.
3. Denver Broncos
15-percent chance
Denver made its coordinator change from Mike McCoy to Bill Musgrave during the season. The team was disappointed in the quarterback results away from the West Coast, and Musgrave gives the Broncos a chance to return to the system installed under Gary Kubiak and Dennison from '16. There's no doubt they also want to find something a lot more reliable than the Trevor Siemian-Paxton Lynch-Brock Osweiler mess. Cousins represents some stability and would inherit two top veteran receivers and a promising power running game.
The main drawback would be the very tight squeeze to fit Cousins' salary under the cap with only about $29 million available, hindering the Broncos' ability to do anything else in free agency. But as we've seen with John Elway, he's not afraid to make bold free-agent moves at the most important position.
2. Minnesota Vikings
25-percent chance
Case Keenum is on the brink of playing well enough to take Minnesota to the Super Bowl. But he, along with Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater, are set to be unrestricted free agents. Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur is reportedly also about to create a vacancy in Minnesota if he becomes the new Giants head coach.
It's weird to think a team that could win it all this year might actually upgrade at QB, but the Vikings have an opportunity post-Shurmur to turn to a West Coast coordinator with the intent of pairing with him Cousins. Money isn't an issue, as the Vikings would be about $57 million under the cap.
The Vikings are built to keep winning, and Cousins offers a polished option who would work well with their talent at wide receiver, running back and tight end.
1. Cleveland Browns
35-percent chance
Cleveland will have the West Coast intact as Hue Jackson adds an offensive coordinator, with former Giants coach Ben McAdoo as the leading candidate. Cousins also has said he would "seriously consider" playing for the Browns, despite their winless 2017 season. At a whopping $110 million under the cap, The Browns have plenty of space. Using some of that to lock up Cousins would still give new GM John Dorsey a ton to spend elsewhere in free agency. The Browns could then also draft the best players available at picks No. 1 and No. 4 in the first round.
Remember that Dorsey's first big move for the Chiefs was trading for Alex Smith. He backed that up by putting the right support around Smith to make him most effective. The Browns already have several good skill-position players in place with Duke Johnson Jr., Corey Coleman, Josh Gordon and David Njoku. All signs point to it being Cleveland vs. the field for Cousins' services.
