NFL Draft 2023 Odds: Who will the New England Patriots draft with their first-round pick?

As the days until the 2023 NFL Draft on April 27 count down, the pre-draft buzz and excitement amongst both fans and bettors will likely reach unprecedented levels. The legalization of sports betting in America — and the meteoric rise in betting across nearly 75 percent of the U.S. — have significantly increased the public interest in all things sports, even sporting events like the draft that don't involve game play. With bettors able to wager on props and futures like first overall pick and which position group a certain team will select with their first-round pick, savvy draft predictions have become legitimate investment opportunities. Today we will discuss the Patriots' first-round pick, what they might do with it, and how to approach New England's draft day as a bettor. 

Sharp bettors never 'gamble' with luck — they use information like stats, data, and trends to give them an edge or angle. Smart wagering on team-related draft props and futures relies on similar intel, but you don't need inside sources to find it. You just need to take a take a deeper look into the teams' personnel issues and core weaknesses last season, as well as its offseason moves to date. 

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In the case of the Patriots, a couple of key positions need immediate attention. New England is coming off its second losing season — as well as its second third-place finish in the AFC East — in a three-year span. That's a big deal for Patriots Nation after 19 straight winning seasons, 17 divisional titles, and six Super Bowls during the Tom Brady era.

Many believe frustrations have grown over 2021 first-round pick Mac Jones, who Bill Belichick uncharacteristically took at the No. 15 pick in 2021. New England has reportedly been shopping Jones this offseason to build anew for the return of offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien, who was hired in late January after an up-and-down decade-plus away from the Pats (O'Brien, a Massachusetts native, replaces former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia as OC/QB coach, so that's one big improvement).

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But BOB might be a little tired of young, unproven QBs after years of fielding fill-ins for Deshaun Watson in Houston, and Belichick might be a little gun-shy with drafting QBs in the teens — never mind the fact that the best available signal-callers might already be off the board by the time New England is on the clock. Many analysts and pundits believe one of three things will occur:

• Belichick will trade Jones and bring in a veteran QB already accustomed to the NFL grind, 
• New England will retain Jones, giving him one more go with the hopes O'Brien can mold him with some complementary pieces added around him, or
• the Patriots will select a QB in the draft. 

Whatever happens under center, we think we will have a better picture of the situation by April 27. If Jones remains employed by Robert Kraft's organization at that point — and no veterans have been brought in — it's fair to assume that New England will not draft a QB unless one of the top four prospects slip to No. 14 (most mocks have Alabama's Bryce Young, Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, and Florida's Anthony Richardson going in the top four and many have Kentucky's Will Levis going in the top 11). 

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Regardless of who plays QB for the Patriots this season, they will need better pass protection and better pass-catchers if Belichick expects them to succeed. Jones got sacked 34 times in 14 games last season, while maintaining an average of just 2.2 seconds of pocket time per snap. New England did sign offensive tackles Riley Reiff and Calvin Anderson to small deals this offseason, but it remains to be seen if either will ever be a difference-maker. Bringing in a stud offensive tackle — a position Belichick rarely whiffs on early in drafts — would be huge for the Pats' rebuilding offense under O'Brien. 

But even when Jones did find enough time in drop-backs to pass during the 2022 season, his options were limited. The only standout receiver from last year's campaign, Jakobi Meyers, was bizarrely allowed to walk away in free agency this offseason, ultimately joining former Patriots offensive coordinator and current Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas. The Pats did upgrade at tight end, replacing traded-TE2 Jonnu Smith with a more capable Mike Gesicki. They also signed slot receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who enjoyed a bit of a career resurgence with the Chiefs during their 2022 championship season. But New England needs much, much more to even dream of winning an AFC that includes the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals. 

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Speaking of powerhouse opposing offenses, let's also not forget that Belichick's boys were unusually susceptible to strong enemy passing attacks last season. The holes in New England's secondary — especially cornerback — were glaring at times, especially against Buffalo, Miami, Minnesota, Cincy, and even the Jets (sans Aaron Rodgers!). Now the Pats secondary could get even hairier after the retirement of Devin McCourty, a leader and source of stability for the better part of the last 13 years. 

So, which position group will the Patriots target with the 14th overall pick in the 2023 draft? Let's look at DraftKings Sportsbook's updated odds on the position of the team's first drafted player.

New England Patriots 2023 NFL Draft Specials: Position of team's first drafted player

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook 

These odds basically suggest that (a) the Patriots have multiple needs and (b) Belichick has been notoriously unpredictable on draft day. Still, we really like the odds of New England using its pick at No. 14 to bolster its o-line or grab a corner. You can't win in the NFL without pocket protection, nor can you sniff an AFC title if you can't stop an opposing passing game.

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Many of the Foxboro faithful will be rooting for a wideout here — but with Belichick's track record of drafting wide receivers, would you be comfortable as a Pats fan with him selecting the next Tyquan Thornton, N'Keal Harry, Aaron Dobson, or Chad Jackson? TCU's Quentin Johnston and USC's Jordan Addison could both be off the board by 14, Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba would be redundant with JuJu already occupying the slot, and undersized BC speedster Zay Flowers seems too much of a boom-or-bust pick for this offense.

This draft is way too loaded with offensive tackles and cornerbacks for Belichick to pass up on either at 14. He could go any number of routes for either position, but we have it narrowed down to six names — four tackles and three corners. Here's our seven, in order of how we would rank them in terms of 'best available.' 

• Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
• Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
• Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
• Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee 
• Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
• Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
• Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

As you can see, we like Belichick to go with his instincts and pick one of the four best offensive tackles available. Skoronski and Johnson Jr. could easily already be off the board — many mocks we have seen have them going in the top 10 — but if either falls, they would be the type of no-brainer, ready-on-day-one o-line cogs that BB would snatch in an instant. Jones, standing 6-5, 311 and possessing a great combo of speed and quickness, would be a fine parting prize. Wright, also 6-5 but a bulkier 333, has less raw athleticism than Jones but more dominating power and instincts. There is also the possibility that Belichick gets wooed by the sheer size and power of Ohio State's 6-8, 374-pound tackle Dawand Jones. We don't have him ranked as high as the other three, but the pick would not surprise us in the least.

As for the defensive backs we project to possibly be available in the early teens, we think Belichick would be most interested in Porter Jr. or Banks, two big, physical corners with game-changing upside. Porter Jr. has elite size, speed, and quickness, not to mention star NFL DNA (his father was a four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher for the Steelers). Banks may not have the star dad, but he does have star potential — his athleticism and NFL-ready size could reward whoever takes a chance on him handsomely. Witherspoon has less size and toughness than Porter Jr. and Banks, but he makes up for that with speed and agility. All three would fit Belichick's system, and all three could be molded into eventual All-Pros.

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Filed under 'unlikely but worth mentioning,' we do have a few wild card picks that *could* possibly catch Belichick's eye. Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer seems special, and we know how much BB values strong pass-catching TEs who also know how to run block. We just don't see it happening after signing Mike Gesicki and already having Hunter Henry on the roster. The other wild card is Kentucky QB Will Levis, who we mentioned earlier has been listed as a top-11 pick in many mocks. At 6-4, 230, Levis has strength, athleticism, and a cannon of an arm that could have him looking like Josh Allen lite with the right coaching. He would be a tough name to pass on if he's somehow still on the board after Tennessee's pick at 11th overall. 

Betting advice: We're sticking with our guns and guessing that one of the five best tackles in the draft will be New England's first pick. But since Belichick can be an unpredictable draft-day brain to dissect — and the defensive-minded coach could just as easily opt for one of the many stud cornerbacks projected in the first round — we will recommend an unorthodox betting strategy here.

Put 70 percent of your Patriots draft-day betting budget on 'offensive lineman,' and the remaining 30 percent on 'cornerback.' If you have $100 total to bet, putting $70 of it on o-line and hitting would give you a net profit of $175 and total payout of $245. Putting $30 down on corner and hitting would net you $75 and give you a total payout of $105, basically offsetting your collective gambles and giving you a five-spot for your time and trouble.

Of course, you could put all $100 on o-line and walk away with a flat $350 if it hits, but with the higher potential reward also obviously comes a higher risk of losing all $100. In this type of situation — where two of the team's biggest needs also happen to be two of the better positions in the draft class — it pays to hedge aka buy some bet insurance.