Over the past few years, the NFL Draft has evolved into a sports bettors' paradise, with a multitude of markets available for bettors to try their hand at predicting how the draft will unfold. One of our favorite draft-centric markets available on DraftKings Sportsbook is their head-to-head markets on which player will be drafted first between several of the top prospects in this year's class.
Will Michael Mayer or Dalton Kincaid hear their name called first? Is Anthony Richardson the QB3 ahead of Will Levis? We've broken down four of these head-to-head markets giving our take on how to approach betting on which player ultimately ends up being selected over their counterpart.
NFL Draft 2023: Head-to-head prop bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Which TE will be drafted first? Michael Mayer vs. Dalton Kincaid
| Michael Mayer (-125) | Dalton Kincaid (-105) |
While at one point it seemed as if Notre Dame's Michael Mayer (-125) was the sure-fire favorite to be the first tight end drafted, Utah's Dalton Kincaid has made up ground and still has an outside shot to go off the board first.
As things currently stand, Mayer is the more NFL-ready prospect who can make an impact from day one due to his ability to aid as a receiver and blocker, but Kincaid might have a higher ceiling due to his elite run-after-catch skills and body control as a receiver.
Betting Advice: When it comes to betting into this market, Mayer (-125) is the much safer bet to be this year's TE1. Some draft analysts are unsure if Kincaid will be able to make a significant impact as a blocker at the next level due to inconsistencies shown on his college tape. Mayer's plug-and-play ability warrants him as the betting favorite and should result in the Notre Dame product coming off the board as this year's TE1.
Which LB will be drafted first? Jack Campbell vs. Drew Sanders
| Jack Campbell (-115) | Drew Sanders (-115) |
Similar to tight end, it's another virtual toss-up on which linebacker will hear his name called first between Iowa's Jack Campbell and Arkansas' Drew Sanders. Whichever two franchises end up drafting these stud linebackers won't be disappointed, but if we had to give an edge to one, we'd lean Campbell's way.
While some knock Campbell's coverage abilities and worry about his off-ball skills, he actually graded out with a higher coverage grade (92.9) than run defense grade (87.0), per PFF. Additionally, "he only allowed 236 yards on 418 coverage snaps" in 2022, and at 6-5, 249 pounds, he's your prototypical mike linebacker.
#Iowa LB Jack Campbell has special ability to recognize route combinations while displaying natural feel for his coverage drops.#Purdue game especially, he was anticipating dig routes and getting into WR's hip pocket, #OhioState game another showcase of his skill set. pic.twitter.com/auzfPKWfdx
— Devin Jackson (@RealD_Jackson) March 16, 2023
Sanders is seen as the better off-ball 'backer and pass rusher, but he had some troubles in the tackling department, missing 22 tackles a season ago. Sanders still enters the draft as a borderline day-one guy, but having just one season of high-quality tape could result in franchises pegging him as the LB2.
To finish this off, another example of Drew Sanders instincts and speed to blow up Run plays but fails to complete the tackle! The tools are there. #HTTC #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/YE5K1R5bcx
— The Podfather (@TheBurgundyZone) January 31, 2023
Betting Advice: Roll with Campbell (-115), the more complete LB who's going to make an impact the second he walks into his new franchise's building. He'll more than likely be a day-one starter with All-Pro potential.
Which CB will be drafted first? Christian Gonzalez vs. Devon Witherspoon
| Christian Gonzalez (-175) | Devon Witherspoon (+135) |
When it comes to which cornerback gets selected first between Oregon's Christian Gonzalez (-175) and Illinois' Devon Witherspoon (+135), there's a slightly larger gap. Witherspoon plays with more of an edge relative to Gonzalez, but Gonzalez's smoothness and superior size and length likely land him as this year's CB1.
Gonzalez still needs to improve his ability to get downhill in zone coverage against the quick game, something Witherspoon already excels in. Witherspoon plays like a safety, having elite instincts to make adjustments on the fly while being able to blow plays up.
The Ravens are going to be hosting Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon on a pre-draft visit. pic.twitter.com/EM1uljebUs
— Ramey (@HoodieRamey) April 4, 2023
Betting Advice: Witherspoon donned PFF's highest grade among cornerbacks, but unfortunately, NFL GM's drafting toward the top of the first round likely give a slight edge to Gonzalez, evident in his -175 pricing to be drafted ahead of Witherspoon. Given how close these two prospects are, we'd stay away from this prop, as the betting market's already told you that Gonzalez likely gets picked first. We're not sure there's a 63.64-percent chance that happens, though, as his odds say it does.
Who will be drafted first? Anthony Richardson vs. Will Levis
| Anthony Richardson (-280) | Will Levis (+220) |
As the odds imply, Anthony Richardson (-280) has a significant leg up on Will Levis (+220) to be taken first. Both signal callers need to work on their footwork in the pocket and accuracy in the intermediate to deep games, but you can't deny their physical traits and projectables.
Richardson appears to have the higher ceiling, though, flashing superior running abilities while being tough to take down in the open field. Levis didn't have much help around him at Kentucky, but his ability to thread the needle through tight windows should make his future offensive coordinator giddy.
Betting Advice: Richardson likely ends up as the QB3, but there's not much of an edge on laying -280 for him to hear his name called first. Therefore, we'd pass on betting into this market, but wouldn't fault you for laying this heavy of juice on him to go ahead of Levis.
