Now that the 2019 NFL Draft is complete, the 80 offensive skill players picked now go to work as rookies. At the end of the 2019 season, only one can be named Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Running backs have won the award in three of the past four seasons (Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara and Todd Gurley). In 2016, Ezekiel Elliott was edged out by his quarterback, Dak Prescott.
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This year, there's a good chance for that position to be represented very well in the rookie race. Let's rank the top 10 for 2019 in relation to the early odds from BetOnline.
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1. Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders (+900)
Jacobs would not have been first on this list earlier in the week, but that was before Isaiah Crowell tore his Achilles tendon. Oakland brought back Doug Martin to replace Crowell, but the path to feature-like touches became a whole lot clearer for the Alabama first-rounder.
If Jacobs, with his pro-ready running, blocking and receiving, can fight to stay on the field for three downs consistently with Jalen Richard limited to an occasional change of pace, he should easily produce the baseline scrimmage yards (1,500-plus) and TDs (10 or more) needed to win the award.
2. Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals (+250)
Murray has a pretty high bar set by what Prescott, Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton did in recent OROY campaigns, but he has something neither Baker Mayfeild nor Lamar Jackson had had in 2018 — an immediate starting job.
Murray's individual key will be posting efficient passing numbers, including more than 20 TDs, to go along with pleasing rushing stats. The Cardinals also need to improve by 3-5 games for Murray to take what's more of a rookie MVP when it comes to QBs.
3. Dwayne Haskins, QB, Redskins (+700)
Haskins isn't being handed the starting job, but having shaky Case Keenum in front of him sets him up to be the No. 1 not too late into the season. Haskins will need to do it purely with his arm, however, as he won't have the rushing to pad his stats. He has a decent supporting cast at some positions and is capable of lifting Washington's receiving corps, too.
4. N'Keal Harry, WR, Patriots (+1600)
The Patriots have many vacated targets without Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan, and for now, Josh Gordon. Harry projects as the No. 2 behind Julian Edelman and ahead of Phillip Dorsett. Harry can both stretch the field and work the red zone, from outside or sometimes as a big slot receiver inside.
What's working against Harry is that New England tends to spread around stats, and only three true wideouts have won OROY since 1998 — Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin and Odell Beckham Jr.
5. Marquise Brown, WR, Ravens (+1000)
Brown is facing the same challenge as Harry at a position that typically doesn't win. But given he's the first-rounder and new first man on the Ravens' wideout depth chart over fellow rookie Miles Boykin, Brown can't be put any lower on this list. The Ravens got "Hollywood" from Oklahoma to be Jackson's go-to guy like he was for Murray in college.
The big question is, on a run-heavy, run-first team that also has the speedy Boykin and two good second-year tight ends, whether Brown can get the volume to raise his big plays.
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6. David Montgomery, RB, Bears (off board)
Matt Nagy was able to move on from Jordan Howard, a misfit in an offensive scheme calling for the utmost running back versatility. As electrifying as Tarik Cohen is, he's not meant to touch the ball more than a dozen times per game.
Montgomery, the second-most complete back to Jacobs in the draft, has the power and receiving skills to settle into more of a feature-like role for Nagy. The team did trade back up for Montgomery and isn't shying away from the on-field comparisons to Kareem Hunt.
7. Drew Lock, QB, Broncos (+1200)
Murray has zero competition from Brett Hundley, and Haskins doesn't have much from Keenum. Joe Flacco has a better chance to last the whole year as the Broncos' bridge quarterback, but we know how that played out with the Ravens ahead of Jackson.
A Flacco injury or ineffectiveness could open the door, and it also wouldn't be surprising for Denver have a slow start, making Lock the starter by October. In that case, there are enough Broncos weapons — Emmanuel Sanders, Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, DaeSean Hamilton — for him to outproduce Murray and Haskins.
8. Mecole Hardman, WR, Chiefs (+1000)
There's definitely talent on Hardman's side as a blinding-fast receiver and return man. But the second-round pick from Georgia, whom Kansas City traded back up to get at No. 51, also looks like he's stepped into a huge opportunity.
The on-field semi-clone of Tyreek Hill might soon become the suspended Hill's long-term replacement on the other side of Patrick Mahomes' downfield passes.
9. D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seahawks (+2000)
Metcalf's candidacy is dependent on Doug Baldwin. If Baldwin can return for his age 31 season despite his injuries, then Metcalf is a limited No. 3 deep threat in a run-heavy offense. If not, Metcalf would get raised to being the No. 1 outside wideout with current No. 2 Tyler Lockett likely needing to have more of a slot presence to help replace Baldwin.
Russell Willson is an excellent deep passer, which meshes nicely with Metcalf's size and vertical speed.
10. T.J. Hockenson, TE, Lions (+1200)
Hockenson should earn an immediate role as a blocker and receiver in Detroit's new-look offense. The No. 8 overall pick from Iowa can soon challenge former Hawkeye/current 49er George Kittle for the title of best all-around tight end in the pro game.
But it will require a Gronk-like season from Hockenson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year — an award that has never been won by any tight end.
