Once this week's NFL Draft is over, run for the hills if Steve Keim invites you to join him in a poker game. The Cardinals general manager has to this point shown a great poker face, hiding well his intentions on what he'll do with the team's first overall pick.
Will Keim select quarterback Kyler Murray, or stick with quarterback Josh Rosen and select one of the top defenders — likely Nick Bosa? Or will he trade out of the top spot?
After so much speculation and rumors about Arizona's move, we'll soon have the answer. We may not know it until the Cardinals are on the clock Thursday night.
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I believe Keim's first choice — which would be my preference if I were him — is to trade the pick if he can get a king's ransom. He'd want a package similar to what the Titans received in 2016 (two No.1s, two No. 2s and two No. 3s in return for the top pick, plus a fourth- and sixth-round pick) when the Rams moved up to the top spot to select franchise quarterback in Jared Goff.
So many factors must be considered in this discussion. I start with Keim having thought so highly of Rosen that he parted with third- and fifth-round picks to move up five spots and select him at No. 10 overall in last year's draft. Keim included a $10.9 million dollar signing bonus in Rosen's rookie deal, and the Cardinals would have to absorb a $14.4 million dead money hit to their cap if they trade Rosen.
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Further damaging is that, in return, they probably would get only a second-round pick and possibly as little as a third (that perhaps could improve to a second rounder based on productivity) after Rosen's rookie 66.7 passer rating (not entirely his fault, considering his supporting cast).
Team owners such as the Bidwill family in Arizona don't like paying out large signing bonuses to a player who winds up one and done with their team. Keim knows that would not be a boon to his long term job security unless he picks Murray and he develops into the next Patrick Mahomes.
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Cardinals keep with Kyler Murray at No. 1, chips fall into place after
The safer move for Keim is to trade out of the top spot and use the extra draft picks to provide Rosen with more offensive weapons in the passing game (no receiver had more than 734 receiving yards or six receiving touchdowns), improved protection (Rosen was sacked 45 times last season) and bolstered run support (worst in the league in 2018). With enough of a draft haul, Keim also could fortify the league's 20th-ranked defense.
Another key angle involves new coach Kliff Kingsbury. His offensive system seems to be a perfect fit for Murray's versatile skill set as it was for Mahomes when he played for Kingsbury at Texas Tech. Kingsbury has been effusive in his praise of Murray with recent comments such as, "When you watch him play, he can run it, he can throw it, he's a competitor. He's one of the better dual threat players to ever play."
If Kingsbury had only made these statements since joining the Cardinals, one could surmise it's partially a smokescreen to entice other teams to up the ante if they want to trade up to get Murray. But Kingsbury has made similar statements dating back to when he coached in college, just last year saying, "Kyler, he is a freak. He's phenomenal. I'd take him with the first pick in the draft if I could."
But this is Keim's call, not Kingsbury's, even if a GM always wants his coach's input. If Keim can't secure an offer sufficient enough to part with the top pick, it creates a difficult situation for him. He has to be able to convince himself (and likely team president Michael Bidwill) that Murray is a special talent and a bigger game changer for the franchise than Rosen, along with a stout defensive addition.
Considering what the Cardinals have invested in Rosen, both financially and with draft capital, don't be surprised if the final decision is that it's too costly to take Murray and dump Rosen.
This could be a repeat of the 2017 draft, when Cleveland went against popular opinion that had them selecting a quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick when they had a major need at the position. It was supposed to be either Mitch Trubisky, Mahomes or Deshaun Watson — but the Browns instead took top rated defensive end Myles Garrett.
The GM who made the Garrett pick, Sashi Brown, was fired later that year. But it worked out well for his successor, John Dorsey, who picked a potential star quarterback in Baker Mayfield No. 1 overall in last year's draft. Garrett also became a Pro Bowler with 13.5 sacks last season.
MORE: How passing on Kyler Murray would shake up the 2019 NFL Draft
In this scenario, Keim would pick the top edge-rusher in Bosa (to form an outstanding pass rushing duo with Chandler Jones) or perhaps highly regarded Alabama defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. The hope would be that Kingsbury can coach up Rosen the way Sean McVay did the past two years with Goff (who has made the Pro Bowl in each of the last two seasons after a rough rookie season).
That would eliminate the possibility of a worst-case scenario in which Keim unloads Rosen for a lot less than the Cards invested in him, only to see him become a star elsewhere — and maybe a better quarterback than Murray in the long run.
Keim has said in recent days that no final decision has been made on the top pick, and I believe him to a certain extent. I think he's hoping for that fantastic trade offer from the likes of the Raiders, Giants, Broncos, Dolphins or Redskins. And the fact that Murray has visited several teams in recent weeks is a sign no one in the Cardinals organization has told him he's definitely going to be their pick.
By now, Keim and his scouts have their draft board lined up. He has talked through the various options with Bidwill and knows exactly what he'll do if no trade materializes.
I'm glad I never had the first pick in the draft during my GM years so I didn't face the pressure Keim is under this week. He knows his future as a GM is on the line with how he handles the top overall pick, and how it plays out in the years to come.
