The 2022 NFL season already has had its first coach fired. The Panthers dismissed Matt Rhule before Week 6. They won't be the only team looking for a new full-time sideline leader in 2023.
Carolina will have significant company while searching for a replacement. The question is which other teams are most likely to make a coaching change based on developing disappointing results?
Consider half of the league (16 teams) have needed to change coaches since 2021 with 14 moves coming because of firings. There should be about 3-6 teams total adding to that turnover by the end of '22.
Let's rank which coaches should have the hottest seats close to the halfway point of the season:
POWER RANKINGS: Surprising Giants, Jets continue to rise; Packers, 49ers, Buccaneers fade for Week 7
NFL coaches on the hot seat
1. Nathaniel Hackett, Broncos
One and done? Short tenures and quick firings are no stranger to Denver after the glorious run with Mike Shanahan. Josh McDaniels and Vance Joseph were around for only two seasons each; Vic Fangio — Hackett's predecessor — managed to stick around for three. Heck, John Fox was fired one year after leading to the Broncos to their first Peyton Manning-fueled Super Bowl.
Unlike Joseph and Fangio, Hackett was handed a potential solution to the franchise's post-Manning QB woes in Russell Wilson. An offensive-minded coach failing to get the most out of a fading future Hall of Famer with questionable play-calling and shaky overall decision-making? The Broncos cannot be too patient with that, given the investment in Wilson.
Hackett, unless there's a big turnaround from 2-4, stat, is headed to be hacked despite his handsome contract, following the recent fates of Urban Meyer and David Culley.
MORE: Questions over Kliff Kingsbury's contract with offensive struggles
2. Kliff Kingsbury, Cardinals
Kingsbury set up higher expectations for offensive-minded Arizona by leading the team to an 11-6 record and an NFC wild-card playoff berth last season. The Cardinals also wanted bigger things from Kyler Murray under Kingsbury after giving the QB a mega contract. Kingsbury, 43, also got a solid four-year extension earlier in the year.
The Cardinals would need eat some considerable money in a buyout, like the Broncos would and the Panthers did. To make it seem more like mutual parting of ways vs. a firing, Kingsbury also could opt to think about some of the attractive potential openings to return to college should things go further south from 2-4 and last place in the NFC West.
Knowing he might be overwhelmed in getting the team to build on last season's success, Kingsbury put sacrificing his play-calling duties on the table this week after the low output loss to the defense-poor Seahawks. Given the Cardinals' offense underachieving that might be necessary for Kingsbury to work on saving his much bigger overall job.
3. Ron Rivera, Commanders
There's some sentiment the Commanders need to keep Rivera as their face of leadership given what's still going on with owner Daniel Snyder. But they also have a well-respected team president Jason Wright to do that.
Rivera is a defensive-minded coach who has fielded an awful defense coordinated by Jack Del Rio. Lacking a healthy Chase Young to rush the passer has hurt, but there are major fundamental problems in the back seven. That's before getting into Rivera's recent throwing of now-injured new starting QB Carson Wentz under the bus in public and then going overboard in backtracking.
"A change is needed in Washington" isn't just a popular political slogan ahead of upcoming election days. It also can pertain to the lost command of a 2-4 football team should the Commanders continue to fade harder in the NFC East where the Eagles, Giants and Cowboys are a combined 15-3 ahead of them.
MORE: Ron Rivera storms out of press conference over Carson Wentz trade
4. Frank Reich, Colts
Reich has gotten plenty fixed for his injury-riddled team in a hurry. The Colts have won three of four games after an 0-1-1 start, including a major home upset of the Chiefs in Week 4. But Week 7 will be a critical next step toward Reich's chances of coaching in Indianapolis beyond 2022.
The Colts had a bad fade from the AFC wild-card playoff picture at the end of last season. They were the favorite to take the AFC South this season. At 3-2-1, having already lost to the 3-2 Titans at home in Week 4, the Colts need to win at Tennessee to jump into first place in a weak division.
That's the easiest playoff path for the now Matt Ryan-led Colts to compensate for the 2021 fail with Wentz. Getting to the playoffs, period, is imperative for Reich given the overall talent of his team.
5. Kevin Stefanski, Browns
Stefanski delivered a AFC wild-card berth in Cleveland and a playoff win as rookie in 2020. They even made things interesting in the divisional round at Kansas City.
Since that initial 12-6 combined run, however, the Browns are 10-13 under Stefanski. There's no doubt 8-9 was a real disappointment last season. The question is whether Stefanski will get a pass with his current 2-4 team until Deshaun Watson returns to be his coach's potential big franchise QB upgrade after suspension.
Had the Browns finished better against the Jets and Chargers at home, they would easily instead be 4-2 with Jacoby Brissett filling in for Watson. But they also lost to the Falcons and Patriots, and their wins have come against the Panthers and Steelers.
Over the Browns' next eight games, the pair of matchups against the Ravens and Bengals sandwich meetings with the Dolphins, Bills and Buccaneers. Watson is eligible to come back only after those three games — vs. his former team, the Texans, in Week 12. Stefanski is probably safe into Year 4, unless the Browns go into freefall and don't raise their offensive ceiling when Watson is at QB.
6. Dan Campbell, Lions
Campbell loved living the "Hard Knocks" life and Detroit was a popular team to exceed expectations and get into NFC playoff contention in 2022. But the bottom line, no matter how good the offense has looked at times, the defense is awful and the team is still 1-4 coming out of a bye and coming off a terrible shutout loss at New England.
That said, the Lions should remain patient with Campbell, attached at the hip with promising GM Brad Holmes. The team is sitting on more great draft capital in 2023 after the shrewd Matthew Stafford trade with the Rams. The Lions are likely to play the long game this time and let Campbell see the rebuild through.
