This NFL season has been one of the most volatile in recent memory, with low scoring, surprise upsets, and a plethora of high-profile names on the injury report each week. In a year of such constant uncertainty, one thing has remained a constant: Sporting News' best bets of the week.
Every Friday afternoon, I unveil my favorite moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop wagers for the week. I run the gauntlet and handpick the best value opportunities on Sports Interaction and SuperDraft, then tell you exactly how and why you should attack the books to make some money. And through six weeks, we have made plenty of money.
Last week, we hit on 11 of our 15 best bets. That's a .7333 winning percentage, for those who don't have a calculator handy. Our season-long win-loss record now stands at 54-32-1, and we're ready to take that explosive momentum into Week 7 to build our bankrolls even bigger.
MORE WEEK 7 BETTING: ATS | Moneyline | Expert prop picks
We don't view sports betting as a gamble. With the right mindset, strategies, and preparedness, we see it as an investment — and we're loving our return on investment through five weeks. That's why we don't just call this thing of ours a hobby — rather, it's a second job that allows us to punch in while we're sitting on our couch.
Your goal is to win money, and our top priority is to help you achieve that goal. That's why we put in a ton of statistical research, attack all the angles, uncover all the betting trends, and pinpoint value across all the sports betting sites each week.
This weekend's slate features a bunch of great games and a plethora of lucrative opportunities for bettors. So, let's go get that money and reveal our best moneyline, spread, over/under, and SuperDraft player prop bets for Week 7 of the 2023 NFL season.
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL Best Bets Week 7: Against the spread
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Rams (-3) vs. Steelers
The Steelers might have the worst starting cornerback duo in the NFL and must travel cross-country to the west coast to face Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, and the Rams? Yeah, we'll gladly take that field goal spread. Los Angeles should be more like -5.5, but oddsmakers always seem to make Mike Tomlin and his Pittsburgh defense seem better than they've actually been (maybe it's a way of enticing action on the Steelers?).
Kenny Pickett doesn't stand a chance in a duel with Matthew Stafford and his many vertical weapons. The Rams might not be the defense they were in Aaron Donald's prime, but they can still make an underwhelming or underprepared offense look bad. L.A. beat the Seahawks 30-13 in Week 1 and stomped the Cardinals 26-9 last week — look for Sean McVay's squad to blow the doors off Pittsburgh this Sunday.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Rams 27, Steelers 13
Bills (-8.5) at Patriots (-110)
It always makes me chuckle when friends of family ask if I'm able to divorce my lifelong New England fandom with my role as a betting analyst. I've never had any trouble pinpointing strengths and weaknesses on any team, especially when the team I grew up watching sucks worse than ever.
This season, the easiest bets I make each week have been against the Patriots. With Mac Jones under center, Bill Belichick's squad has gone 1-5 straight up and against the spread and an unfathomably abysmal 0-13 ATS as an underdog. I mean, blame DeVante Parker for not catching a wide-open pass all you want — Jones still should have beaten Brian Hoyer in Las Vegas.
Josh Allen and the Bills have also beaten the Pats six of the past seven times these teams have met — and the last time Sean McDermott's squad faced an AFC East foe, Buffalo beat the brakes off the Dolphins 48-20. We should see some offensive fireworks from Buffalo, followed by perhaps the firing of Bill Belichick.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Bills 40, Patriots 13
Other Week 7 spreads we like: Chiefs (-5.5) vs. Chargers;
Best NFL moneyline bets Week 7
Buccaneers vs. Falcons (-140)
The Falcons' defense has improved quite a bit since last season, but it's nowhere near pristine. Atlanta has allowed 22 points per game over the past five weeks, and we're just not so sure Desmond Ridder and the Dirty Birds can put up 23 points on the road. So far, they are 0-2 away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium with a -16 point differential.
Baker Mayfield hasn't always looked great this season, but this should be a get-right game for the veteran QB and his trusty trio of pass-catchers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Cade Otton. The Buccaneers have taken Atlanta down in five of their past six meetings, and we're betting on that rising to six of seven this Sunday.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Buccaneers 20, Falcons 16
Packers (-120) at Broncos
The Packers have shown plenty of promise in Jordan Love's first full season under center, while the Broncos continue to look like a dumpster fire with Russell Wilson at the helm. Even worse, Denver's defense has arguably looked like one of the five worst defensive units in the 21st century. Sean Payton's squad has a horrendous -71 point differential through six weeks.
Green Bay has gone 4-1 ATS in its past five road games, and should be extra-prepared for this one coming out of a bye. The Broncos, meanwhile, have yet to cover a single spread this NFL season and have only managed one win against the equally-abysmal Bears. Expect more of the same from Sean Payton's train wreck of a team.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Packers 23, Broncos 20
Other Week 7 moneylines we like: Eagles (-140) vs. Dolphins
Best NFL over/under bets Week 7
Ravens vs. Lions: Lions UNDER 20.5 (-125)
This will be Detroit's toughest offensive test of the season, with both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs banged up and Baltimore's defense stifling of late.
Roquan Smith, Patrick Queen, Marlon Humphrey, and the Ravens have allowed an opposing QB completion rate of just 60 percent on the season (top five in the NFL) and 55 percent over their past three games (second-best). Opposing wide receivers have also averaged just 5.8 yards per target against John Harbaugh's squad, so don't count on too many highlight-reel plays from Amon-Ra St. Brown.
I'm tempted to opt instead for the UNDER on the full-game total (43), but I'm leaning Baltimore -2.5 and Lions UNDER 20.5. Everyone in the world is betting Detroit right now — make some money on the contrarian play and fade the injury-ravaged team in a trap game.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Ravens 23, Lions 20
Other Week 7 over/unders we like: Browns-Colts UNDER 41 (-110)
MORE BETTING:
Pick'em, Survivor Pool Picks | Bills-Giants betting preview | Jets-Eagles SuperDraft picks
Best NFL player prop bets Week 7
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Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks vs. Cardinals — OVER 71.5 rushing yards
Walker has been one of the more dependable running backs in the NFL this season. Now he gets a divisional home game against a Cardinals defense that has surrendered the fourth-most rushing yards to RBs (112.8 per game). KW3 might hit this OVER by the end of the third quarter.
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens vs. Lions — OVER 52.5 receiving yards
Andrews remains one of Lamar Jackson's most trusted pass-catchers, and the Lions rank as one of the best run-stuffing defenses in the NFL this season. In what we expect to be a very close game, look for Andrews to blow away any number up to 60.5 receiving yards. Detroit has surrendered 62.6 air yards per game to tight ends, and Andrews is the best receiving TE not named Travis Kelce.
Marquise Brown, WR, Cardinals at Seahawks — OVER 4.5 receptions
Brown has easily ranked as Josh Dobbs' number one option in Arizona this season, with gaudy target totals of 11, 10, 10 over the past three weeks. During that span, he has 15 catches, which averages out to exactly how many catches we need from him this week in a tight divisional contest in Seattle. The Seahawks have allowed an average of 18 receptions per game to wideouts this season, so look for Hollywood to shine bright this Sunday.
