What a wild few weeks it has been in the NFL. MVP favorite Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins nearly broke a league record stomping the Broncos 70-20. The Bengals have opened up 1-2 while the Colts, Falcons, and Commanders all stand at 2-1. And yet, the top story of the young season involves Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift. What a time to be alive! Just kidding, Swifties — it's all in fun! And we're ready to have some more betting fun with our Week 4 best bets.
Each Friday afternoon, yours truly runs the gauntlet and handpicks my favorite moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop bets. I search BetMGM, SuperDraft, and FanDuel for the best value and tell you exactly how and why you can attack the books to make some money. And through three weeks, we have done just that — coming out on top with all three columns.
We have featured 41 bets over the past three weeks, and 24 of those bets have hit. All said, our 24-16-1 record on the season would translate to well over $3,500 in profits if you wagered $100 on each best bet. That's quite the strong start to a season — and now that we have a bigger sample size to work with, we're ready to take our betting success to the next level.
Your goal is to win money, and our top priority is to help you achieve that goal. That's why we put in a ton of statistical research, attack all the angles, uncover all the betting trends, and pinpoint value across all the sports betting sites each week.
MORE NFL WEEK 4 PICKS: ATS | Moneyline
Sports betting doesn't need to be considered 'gambling.' With the right mindset, strategies, and preparedness, it becomes far less of a gamble and much more of an investment. That's why we don't just call this thing of ours a hobby — rather, it's a second job that allows us to punch in while we're sitting on our couch.
This weekend's slate features a bunch of great games and a plethora of lucrative opportunities for bettors. So, let's go get that money and reveal our best moneyline, spread, over/under, and SuperDraft player prop bets for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season.
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL Best Bets Week 4: Against the spread
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Eagles (-8.5) vs. Commanders
We don't typically lead with a large home favorite — that's generally a fool's errand — but we would bet the Eagles up to -9.5 at home against the Commanders. Sam Howell looked pretty good under center for Washington in Weeks 1 and 2, but he regressed in a major way against Buffalo last weekend. Who would have thought — young QBs don't enjoy as much success against strong defenses as they do against Arizona and Denver!?
And let's face it, people — Philadelphia has a strong defense, at least on the front lines. The Eagles punched Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers in the mouth on Monday Night Football, holding a passing offense that had been running hot through two weeks to just 113 passing yards. Mayfield took two sacks, the Bucs turned the ball over twice, and they managed just 12 first downs all night because of the constant pressure on Tampa's pocket. The time of possession disparity: Philly 38:55-Tampa 21:05.
The craziest part about the Eagles' 3-0 start? Jalen Hurts hasn't even played that well. As a passer, he looks mediocre at best — although he did reignite his chemistry with best bud AJ Brown last weekend. He still had 14 incompletions and two interceptions, and relied largely on the borderline-unstoppable tush-push in short-yardage and goal-line situations.
This Eagles team can win by 10 even without Hurts playing like he did in Philly's Super Bowl run. But if he can figure it out as a passer, don't be surprised if we see a beatdown similar to what the Bills did to Washington last week (37-3). The Commanders converted on just 1-of-9 third-down tries, got sacked a whopping nine times, and turned the ball over five times. Now poor Sammy's gotta go into Lincoln Financial Field to face the NFC champions? Lawdamercy!
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Eagles 27, Commanders 9
Jaguars (-3) vs. Falcons (London)
Who would have predicted one month ago that Jacksonville would open 1-2 and Atlanta would start 2-1? The Jaguars were one of the more popular preseason picks to contend for the AFC, while the Falcons were widely considered a generous over/under at 8.5 games. Now Jacksonville has to bring it to avoid a lonely overseas trip to the basement of the AFC South.
We expect Doug Pederson's squad to deliver in 'must-win' mode against a young Falcons team at Jacksonville's home away from home. Even though Atlanta's D has been pretty good — thriving at times under the newfound leadership of Jessie Bates in an underrated secondary — the Birds have still allowed plenty of big plays due to lapses in focus. And the Jags' offense — especially in a slightly home-favored neutral site — just flat-out stacks up better than the ATL's.
Falcons head coach Arthur Smith and offensive coordinator Dave Ragone have asked Desmond Ridder to be a mistake-free game manager. That doesn't always work against strong offenses and surprisingly good defenses, as we learned last week when the Falcons lost 20-6 in Motown. The Lions sold out to stop the run and put constant pressure on Ridder. The second-year QB got sacked seven times, and Atlanta only netted 2.8 yards per play. We like the Jags' front-seven to get after it in a similar manner this Sunday and steal the show at Wembley.
The Jaguars totaled four sacks in their only road game this season, a 31-21 win in Indianapolis, and they racked up three takeaways against the Colts and Chiefs. The weather in London might be "partly cloudy" on Sunday, but it will be a gloomy afternoon for the Dirty Birds.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Jaguars 20, Falcons 16
Other Week 4 spreads we like: Buccaneers (+3.5) at Saints; Cowboys (-6.5) vs. Patriots; Bengals (-2.5) at Titans
Best NFL moneyline bets Week 4
Browns (-115) vs. Ravens
The Browns have surprised us this season, ranking top six in the AFC in scoring (24.3/game) and No. 1 in the NFL in points allowed (10.7/game). Deshaun Watson hasn't been great, but he hasn't needed to be great — he's got great protection, a superb No. 1 receiver in Amari Cooper, a good running game even without Nick Chubb, and an insanely good defense to take the pressure off of him.
The Ravens, meanwhile, just lost at home to the Colts (although, to be fair, a missed pass interference late in the game probably cost them that game). Lamar Jackson has not looked very good as a passer — he has just two pass TDs through three weeks to go with an average of 202.7 air yards per game. He's also been sacked eight times and clearly misses top running back J.K. Dobbins. Myles Garrett and company will have LJax on his back this Sunday.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Browns 23, Ravens 20
Bengals (-145) at Titans
Neither of these offenses have been very good, but at least we saw some signs of life from Cincinnati on Monday Night Football against the Rams. The Joe Burrow-to-Ja'Marr Chase connection seems to have reignited, perfect timing for a Bengals squad rolling into Nashville to play a perennially-feeble Titans secondary. Maybe we'll even have a Tee Higgins sighting, which seems to happen every other game at this point. Anything's possible at Nissan Stadium.
When you give up over 275 passing yards per game like Tennessee has this season, you'd better get your offense up to snuff. But Ryan Tannehill has been so utterly abysmal for Mike Vrabel's squad — with a 59 percent completion rate, 3.6 percent interception rate, and 13 sacks taken — it's hard to envision the Titans finishing this campaign with seven wins. They can't even get Derrick Henry going, and he's a two-time rushing champ.
We've yet to even mention the Bengals' D, which made a red-hot Rams offense look pedestrian on primetime TV. Matthew Stafford? Sacked six times and picked off twice. Breakout running back Kyren Williams? Held to 38 rushing yards. Third-down conversions? Just 1-of-11. That will get your squad believing in itself again. Fade King Henry and take Joe Burrow, Tiger King to emerge victorious this weekend.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Bengals 24, Titans 17
Other Week 4 moneylines we like: Dolphins (+120) at Bills; Texans (+125) vs. Steelers (we're living dangerously with the 'dogs!)
Best NFL over/under bets Week 4
Chiefs UNDER 26.5 points at Jets
The Chiefs just put up 41 points on the Bears last week, while the Jets lost to the Patriots 15-10. One week prior, Kansas City toughed out a 17-9 win over the Jaguars and New York got stomped by the Cowboys 30-10. Here's what we know about both these squads: New York's struggles have been almost entirely caused by Zach Wilson's inadequacies as a quarterback. He's quite simply the worst QB in the NFL, as evidenced by his three interceptions in Week 2 and Gang Green's 2.8 yards-per-play average in Week 3.
Simply put, Kansas City won't need much offense to win this one — and it won't get much offense against Sauce Gardner and company in the Meadowlands. Robert Saleh's defense has surrendered just 4.8 yards per play this season, and even better, it has given up just 15.5 points per home game. The Chiefs, meanwhile, held Jacksonville to single-digits in their only road game so far. Kansas City wins with just 24 on the board this weekend, leaving Taylor Swift in the luxury box singing "Don't Blame Me."
Other Week 4 over/unders we like: Jaguars-Falcons UNDER 43; Raiders-Chargers OVER 48.5; Rams-Colts OVER 46
MORE BETTING:
Pick'em, Survivor Pool Picks | Jaguars-Falcons | Cowboys-Patriots | Jets-Chiefs
Best NFL player prop bets Week 4
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James Cook, RB, Bills vs. Dolphins — OVER 58.5 rushing yards (Sloan Piva)
I almost doubled down on this game and picked Raheem Mostert OVER 52.5 rushing yards, but I decided to stick to one since I finished with a loss last weekend. Plus, rookie De'Von Achane could have forced the Dolphins backfield into an even split with his breakout Week 3 performance. Cook seems like a much safer play, especially considering he has no real competition for touches in this Buffalo offense.
Cook has enjoyed 15-plus carries in two consecutive weeks, and he totaled 123 ground yards against the Raiders and 98 ground yards against the Commanders. Now he draws a home matchup with the Bills, who have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards in the NFL this season. Buffalo should have a much easier time against Miami than the Broncos did last week — and you can take that all the way to the credit union.
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers at Saints — OVER 59.5 receiving yards (Piva)
We get it, Evans draws a Week 4 matchup with arch-nemesis Marshon Lattimore, who has largely held the wideout in check over the course of their heated rivalry. But Evans has enjoyed one of his best starts to a season ever with Baker Mayfield under center, averaging five catches, one TD, and nearly 100 yards per game through three weeks.
New Orleans has only surrendered 139 yards per game to wideouts this season, but it has allowed 64 air yards per game to opposing WR1s (DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen, and Romeo Doubs when Christian Watson was out). And Evans has put up yardage totals of 59 and 61, respectively, the last two times the Buccaneers have faced the Saints. Circle this one in your prop lineup just like Evans circled this weekend on his calendar.
