Early December marks one of our favorite times of the year to be a sports fan, in large part because the home stretch of the NFL regular season delivers some of the best football of the year. With every contender gunning for the best possible seed in the playoffs — and hot hopefuls giving it their all to simply get in — Week 13 seems like as good a time as ever to capitalize on our best bets and help make you some pre-Christmas cash.
Every Friday, we unveil my favorite moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop wagers for the upcoming weekend. We run the gauntlet and handpick the best value opportunities on Caesars and SuperDraft, then tell you exactly how and why you should attack the books to make some money. And through 12 weeks, despite some bumps in the road last month, we have made plenty of money.
Last week, we went 3-1 against the spread, 3-0 on our over/under picks, and 3-0 on our player props. The Bills and Bengals blew it for us, holding us to just 1-2 on the moneyline, but you'll never see us complain about a 10-3 week! That brings us to 93-72-1 on the season, good for a .563 winning percentage in an utterly turbulent NFL season of sports betting.
Our methods and approach remain the same each week. We maintain that sports betting is a lot like Black Jack — if you're knowledgeable, approach it the right way, and stay consistent with your strategy, you're going to win more often than you'll lose. With the right mindset, proper level of research, and consistent preparedness, we see sports betting as an investment, not a gamble — and we're loving our return on investment through 12 weeks. This thing of ours ain't just a hobby — it's a second job that allows us to punch in while we're sitting on our couch.
MORE WEEK 13 BETTING: Against the spread | Moneyline | Top props
We're hungry for more profits as we sprint toward Christmas. We have Black Friday credit card bills to pay off, Christmas gifts to buy, and oil tanks to fill. So, let's carry over our momentum and head into the Week 13 main slate with another batch of NFL moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop bets. Let's go!
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL Best Bets Week 13: Against the spread
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Lions (-4) at Saints
Coming off an embarrassing loss to Jordan Love and the division-rival Packers on Turkey Day, the Lions need a get-right game. The only two squads ahead of them in the NFC standings — the Eagles and 49ers — will do battle in Philly this weekend, giving Detroit a big opportunity to move closer to the top seed in the conference.
With extra post-Thanksgiving time to prepare for this one, we think Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the two-headed rushing attack of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs will destroy the banged-up Saints this weekend. Detroit has gone 5-1 ATS in its last six games on the road, and we have no reason to think Dan Campbell's unit will underestimate two opponents in a row.
Derek Carr has been mostly underwhelming in his debut season with the Saints, who now find themselves without receivers Michael Thomas (knee) and Rashid Shaheed (thigh) and potentially without stud wideout Chris Olave (concussion) and pass-rusher Cameron Jordan (ankle). New Orleans has gone 2-8-1 against the spread this season and 0-4 ATS at home, trends that will only get worse this weekend.
SCORE PREDICTION: Lions 27, Saints 20
Buccaneers (-5) vs. Panthers
Tampa Bay has struggled a bit this season, sitting just third in the NFC South at 4-7. However, Baker Mayfield and the Bucs can get right back into a first-place tie if the aforementioned Lions beat the Saints and the Jets beat the Falcons. Even better, Todd Bowles' squad has two meetings with the 1-10 Panthers remaining, road tilts with the inconsistent Falcons and Packers, and a home game against the Saints. These guys might just get into the dance.
Carolina has been unfathomably bad in just about every way this season. The Panthers sit in the bottom-four of the NFL in scoring offense, total yards, and scoring defense. They lead the league in turnovers while ranking fourth-worst in takeaways. They have surrendered an NFL-high 32 rushing TDs, and opponents have scored TDs on 72.2 percent of their trips to Carolina's red zone (second-highest opp. RZ TD rate in the NFL).
Let's face it: Carolina is bad — far too bad for any interim coach to fix. Look for Rachaad White and Mike Evans to feast at home this weekend, while Tampa's embattled secondary rights the proverbial ship against oft-erratic rookie Bryce Young. We like Tampa to take care of business for the sixth time in seven meetings with the Panthers.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Buccaneers 23, Panthers 13
Other Week 13 spreads we like: Chiefs (-6) at Packers; Chargers (-5.5) at Patriots; Rams -0.5 (1Q) vs. Browns (+110)
Best NFL moneyline bets Week 13
Jets (+110) vs. Falcons
We're living dangerously like Austin Powers playing Black Jack, backing a 4-7 Jets team at home against the NFC South-leading Falcons. But we have no reason to trust the 5-6 Dirty Birds in this spot — they have gone 1-4 on the road, they have a -19 point differential, and they've managed just 119 passing yards per game over their past two contests.
With Aaron Rodgers' 21-day IR window opened and the four-time MVP somehow practicing just 77 days after tearing his Achilles, new hope has been instilled amongst the Gang Green faithful. The Jets find themselves just a couple games behind the Colts for the final AFC Wild Card spot, so they can't afford to lose to Desmond Ridder and the Falcons at home. Look for Robert Saleh's squad to get it done this weekend with Tim Boyle under center and Breece Hall running wild.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Jets 20, Falcons 16
Other Week 13 moneylines we like: Eagles (+135) vs. 49ers; Texans (-155) vs. Broncos
Best NFL over/under bets Week 13
Dolphins at Commanders: OVER 49.5
Frankly, we can't believe this over/under sits below 50 points. Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and the high-flying Dolphins average 30.8 points per game on the season, they just dropped 34 on Sauce Gardner and the Jets, and they're playing a Washington defense that has surrendered an NFL-high 29.2 points per game on the season. This has the makings of a scoring bonanza.
The Commanders just allowed Dallas to put 45 on them on Thanksgiving, bringing their opponents' per-game average over their past three contests to a whopping 35.0. Four of Washington's past five games have gone OVER, and each of these teams benefits from a long post-holiday rest. Don't be surprised if this game finishes closer to 60 points than 50.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Dolphins 37, Commanders 20
Other Week 13 over/unders we like: Broncos at Texans: OVER 47.5 (-110); Chargers OVER 22.5 at Patriots (-120); Browns at Rams: UNDER 40.5 (-110)
Best NFL player prop bets Week 13
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C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans vs. Broncos — OVER 269.5 passing yards
Dating back to Stroud’s breakout one month ago vs. the Buccaneers, the stud rookie has averaged 26.5 completions, 366.5 passing yards, and 2.5 passing TDs per game. The Texans’ record during that four-game stretch: 3-1. The path to success for Houston is through Stroud’s arm, and we think that arm will be quite busy in what should be a close game with Russell Wilson and the red-hot Broncos.
Sure, Denver has fared well against the pass over the past couple months, but it still allows the sixth-most net yards per pass attempt and third-most total yards per game on the season. That's despite facing Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Josh Dobbs, Jordan Love, Josh “Choke Artist” Allen, and Patrick Mahome with a flu.
Stroud should be able to keep up his sizzling-hot streak this weekend at NRG Stadium, where the Texans average the third-most home passing yards per game in the NFL (306.3). We’re loud and proud with our C.J. Stroud pick. Let's go, rook!
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins at Commanders — OVER 5 receptions
Most will lean toward Tyreek Hill OVER seven receptions instead, but I happen to think the Offensive Player of the Year candidate has been struggling with his wrist and ankle injuries worse than he’s letting on. Besides, the Cheetah needs just a few plays to get to 100 yards, which would keep him well on track for the first 2,000-yard receiving season in NFL history.
Waddle has been a dutiful WR2, punching the time clock and logging an average of 5.8 catches and 74.3 yards per game over Miami’s past six contests. The Commanders have allowed the third-most passing yards in the league this season, and they have surrendered a whopping 24.7 completions per game over the past three weeks (tied for fifth-most). Jaylen should Waddle his way to six-plus catches for the fifth time since mid-October.
Zack Moss, RB, Colts at Titans — OVER 77.5 rushing yards
Every time Moss has been tasked with starting in place of Jonathan Taylor, he has knocked it out of the proverbial park. From Weeks 2 through 5 this season, he averaged 111.3 rushing yards and scored four total TDs. The last team he ran rough-shod over was these same Titans, who he bruised for 195 all-purpose yards (165 on the ground) and two scores. Tennessee’s run defense ain’t what it used to be — Mike Vrabel’s squad has surrendered a whopping 134.1 rushing yards per game since Oct. 8. Nashville faithful, you’re about to get Mossed.
Caesars Week 13 over/unders we like: Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars at Browns — Anytime TD (-120); Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions at Saints — OVER 76.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115); Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs at Packers — Anytime TD (-110)
