With ten weeks of the 2023 NFL season in the books, yours truly has experienced the good, the bad, and the ugly of sports betting. We cruised to an over .700 winning percentage through seven weeks, ground to a complete halt in Weeks 8 and 9, and finished just above .500 last week. We'll do our best to get you back to the big money with our Week 11 best bets, in what should be an action-packed weekend of pigskin.
Every Friday afternoon, we unveil my favorite moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop wagers for the upcoming weekend. We run the gauntlet and handpick the best value opportunities on Caesars and SuperDraft, then tell you exactly how and why you should attack the books to make some money. And through eight weeks, despite some bumps in the road, we have made plenty of money, although maybe not as much as we would like to be making.
Speaking of that, hey Buffalo Bills — you're dead to me! My moneyline, spread, and over/under picks would have gone 8-2 if not for that pitiful loss to the lowly Broncos on Monday Night Football. I hate to break it to Bills Mafia, but if you lose at home to the team your biggest divisional rival beat by 50 points earlier in the season, things aren't going so good for your organization.
Still, a 7-3 week on best bets is pretty dang good...if only that's where we had stopped! My three over/under player prop picks went friggin' 0-3, including a Rachaad White OVER that missed by a stinkin' half a yard. You can't make this stuff up, boys and girls! So, we ultimately came away with a 7-6 record on the week, making us 77-62-1 on the season. Nothing wrong with a .554 winning percentage in the turbulent world of sports betting.
Our mindset and methods remain the same. We maintain that sports betting is a lot like Black Jack. If you're knowledgeable, approach it the right way, and stay consistent with your strategy, you're going to win more than you're going to lose. That's why we don't view it as a gamble. With the right mindset, proper level of research, and consistent preparedness, we see sports betting as an investment — and we're loving our return on investment through 10 weeks. That's why we don't just call this thing of ours a hobby — rather, it's a second job that allows us to punch in while we're sitting on our couch.
However, we are hungry for more profits in this second job of ours. We have turkeys to buy, Black Friday wish lists to create for ourselves, and Frozen motorcycles to apparently buy for our daughters (!?). So, let's hold our heads up high as we head into Week 11 and take the sportsbooks by storm in what should be an insane weekend of NFL football.
MORE WEEK 11 BETTING: Against the spread | Moneyline | Top props
Your goal is to boost your bankroll, and our top priority is to help you achieve that goal. That's why we put in a ton of statistical research, attack all the angles, uncover all the betting trends, and pinpoint value across the biggest sports betting sites each week.
This weekend's slate features a plethora of lucrative opportunities for bettors. So, let's go get that money and reveal our best moneyline, spread, over/under, and SuperDraft player prop bets for Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season.
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL Best Bets Week 11: Against the spread
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Chiefs (-2.5) vs. Eagles
The Swifties, Mahomies, and Andy Reid groupies may or may not have been listening, but Patrick Mahomes has said all season that he thinks the Chiefs have the best defense in football. Looking at their advanced stats and data, that statement might not be all that egregious. Kansas City has now held the Dolphins, Chargers, Lions, and Jaguars to three scores or less and limited the Kirk Cousins/Justin Jefferson Vikings to 21 points.
Chris Jones continues to be one of the best run-stuffing defensive tackles in the game. Defensive end George Karlaftis has registered at least four QB pressures in every game this season. Stud cornerback L'Jarius Sneed has yet to allow a touchdown in 322 coverage snaps. Linebacker Willie Gay has been doing it all, terrorizing opponents at all three levels. The Chiefs defense has allowed points on just 24 of 94 drives this season (25.5%, 2nd-best in the NFL).
And we haven't even gotten to the part about Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Isiah Pacheco looking as good as ever or Rashee Rice breaking out over the past few weeks. This squad seems more than capable of handling an Eagles squad at Arrowhead, especially when you consider that Jalen Hurts has struggled nearly all season to throw the deep ball with accuracy. Philly can't bull the Chiefs in short-yardage and goal-line situations like it does with the Commanders. It can't run over this front-seven like it ran over the Vikings.
Bettors far and wide seem to think this coming Monday will be a turning point between the Eagles and Chiefs rivalry. Kansas City might have something to say about that. Andy Reid is a perfect 4-0 against his former squad, and the Chiefs have gone 11-1 straight up in their last 12 games at home. Their only loss during that stretch came against the Lions in Week 1. We have the Chiefs clobbering Philly in a statement game that shouts with an Arrowhead emphasis "We're still here."
SCORE PREDICTIONS: Chiefs 27, Eagles 23
Lions -9.5 vs. Bears (+102)
We opened up the "Alternate Match Spread" slider for this one and toggled all the way from Lions -7.5 to -9.5. Show me the money! We love Detroit in this game, with former Bears running back David Montgomery back to full health after his Week 6 rib injury and Jahmyr Gibbs looking like the most electric Lions rookie RB since Barry Sanders in 1989. Dan Campbell's boys should ground-and-pound da Bears into complete oblivion this weekend.
However, the Lions are far more than just a strong running team. Jared Goff has looked better than ever in the pocket. Amon-Ra St. Brown remains one of the most nuclear pass-catching options in the NFL. Tight end Sam LaPorta has enjoyed a stellar rookie campaign. Detroit's offensive line has been dominating, while Aidan Hutchinson leads a pass-rush on the other side that has stifled running games and harassed QBs all season.
This is a bona fide Super Bowl contender, boys and girls, and the Lions are 8-1 against the spread over their past nine home games. They're not going to suddenly struggle or slip at Ford Field, especially not against a Tyson Bagent-led Bears team that just barely got by the Carolina Panthers 19-16 at home.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Lions 33, Bears 17
Other Week 11 spreads we like: Chargers (-3) at Packers; Raiders (+13.5) at Dolphins; Cowboys (-10) at Panthers
Best NFL moneyline bets Week 11
Steelers (+100) at Browns
For a team flaunting a 6-3 record, Cleveland sure has endured a bumpy rollercoaster of a season. Deshaun Watson has missed multiple games and will now miss the remainder of the season due to his shoulder injury. Stud running back Nick Chubb suffered a gruesome season-ending torn ACL, for which he has already had two surgeries. Now the Browns are making Dorian Thompson-Robinson their Week 11 QB "barring a last-minute change of heart." And Joe Flacco came in to work out!? Oh, man, that's a lot to unpack.
We're taking a 6-3 Steelers team and the wizard that is Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh has Diontae Johnson back opposite George Pickens, tight end Pat Freiermuth could come back from IR this week, and the 1-2 rushing attack of Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris has been as effective as ever the past couple weeks. But T.J. Watt and company bearing down on some combination of DTR, P.J. Walker, and Joe Flacco feels like the most alluring part of this pick. We're all over the Steelers at plus odds in what should be a divisional slugfest.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Steelers 20, Browns 16
Best NFL over/under bets Week 10
Cardinals at Texans: OVER 48
Kyler Murray is back for Arizona, and C.J. Stroud has fully emerged as the best rookie QB we've seen in years. This has the makings of an awesome shootout, and we're all-in on the OVER as long as it's on this side of 50. The total has gone OVER in six of the Cardinals' last nine games, and Murray should only bolster that trend with his gun-slinging and quick-running tendencies. The total has also gone OVER both times that Houston has been favored at home, and we don't expect Stroud to all of a sudden slow down against an Arizona defense that has surrendered the fifth-most points in the NFL. Smash, pound, or hammer the OVER, whatever your preferred verbiage.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Texans 30, Cardinals 24
Other Week 11 over/unders we like: Giants-Commanders OVER 38; Vikings-Broncos OVER 42.5; Bears-Lions OVER 48
MORE BETTING:
Pick'em, Survivor Pool Picks | Vikings-Broncos SNF preview | Eagles-Chiefs MNF preview
Best NFL player prop bets Week 11
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Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers at Packers — OVER 34.5 receiving yards
Ekeler has hit this number in two of his past three games and four of his six contests this season. His pass-catching and open-field playmaking remain a massive part of the Chargers’ identity, and he could be called upon to play an even bigger role now that wideouts Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer are on IR and tight ends Gerald Everett (chest) and Donald Parham (hip) are banged up. The Packers have been awful against running backs all year — allowing 140 scrimmage yards per game to the position — and they allowed Pittsburgh’s Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris to combine for 206 all-purpose yards last week. Ek’s OVER is a smash-play.
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills vs. Jets — OVER 49.5 receiving yards
Kincaid has been one of the Bills’ lone bright spots in an otherwise-gloomy 2-4 stretch. In four games over the past month, the rookie has averaged seven catches and 68 yards per contest. With a target share of over 22 percent during that span, he’s basically operating as Buffalo’s second receiver behind Stefon Diggs — much like Kyle Pitts did for Atlanta in his rookie campaign. Kincaid’s the real deal, so expect him to be very busy while Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed battle Diggs and Gabe Davis out wide.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seahawks at Rams — UNDER 64.5 rushing yards
Maybe it’s the two years full of injuries piling up on Walker, but the dude just doesn’t look right over the past couple weeks. He has averaged just 2.8 yards per carry and an abysmal 0.3 yards after contact during that span, while also recording just one run longer than 10 yards. KW3 did break off a 64-yard catch-and-run for a TD last week, but we simply can’t trust him to bring the same burst out of the backfield as he demonstrated earlier in the season. And with rookie running mate Zach Charbonnet seeing a season-high 42 snaps and tying a season-high 11 opportunities last week, Pete Carroll can’t fully trust Walker, either.
