Throughout my lengthy career as a sports journalist and betting analyst, I have been fortunate enough to make the acquaintance of countless experts in the NFL betting industry. Among the dozens I remain friendly with to this day, very few have enjoyed much success over the past few wonky weeks of pigskin. However, Mama said there would be days like this — and tough betting doesn't last, tough bettors do — so we hold our heads high as we bring you our best bets for Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season.
You know the drill by now. Every Friday afternoon, we unveil my favorite moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop wagers for the upcoming weekend. We run the gauntlet and handpick the best value opportunities on Caesars and SuperDraft, then tell you exactly how and why you should attack the books to make some money. And through eight weeks, despite some bumps in the road, we have made plenty of money.
We have come back to Earth in a major way over the past three weeks, dropping considerably from a best bets winning percentage of over .700. However, we're still doing just fine on the season, with a 71-56-1 record on the season. That's a winning percentage of nearly .560, a number many professional bettors wish they were maintaining during this rollercoaster of an NFL season.
MORE WEEK 10 BETTING: Against the spread | Moneyline | Top props
Let's face it — sports betting is a lot like Black Jack. If you're knowledgeable, approach it the right way, and stay consistent with your strategy, you're going to win more than you're going to lose. That's why we don't view it as a gamble. With the right mindset, proper level of research, and consistent preparedness, we see sports betting as an investment — and we're loving our return on investment through seven weeks. That's why we don't just call this thing of ours a hobby — rather, it's a second job that allows us to punch in while we're sitting on our couch.
Your goal is to boost your bankroll, and our top priority is to help you achieve that goal. That's why we put in a ton of statistical research, attack all the angles, uncover all the betting trends, and pinpoint value across all the sports betting sites each week.
This weekend's slate features a plethora of lucrative opportunities for bettors. So, let's go get that money and reveal our best moneyline, spread, over/under, and SuperDraft player prop bets for Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season.
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL Best Bets Week 10: Against the spread
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Steelers -3 vs. Packers
Mike Tomlin's squad is quietly 5-3, tied with the Bengals and Browns in a parity-driven AFC North. T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and the Steelers D seem to just get better each week, while the two-headed running game of Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris has enjoyed more fruitful results as the season progresses. Pittsburgh also has stud wideout Diontae Harris healthy and back on the field opposite George Pickens, which produced immediate dividends last week against the Titans.
Jordan Love has played a very inconsistent and oft-erratic QB in his first full season as Aaron Rodgers' successor, while Green Bay's defense has struggled mightily to contain the run (a fate that's been even worse on the road, where the Pack have surrendered 143.5 ground yards per game). We don't see this weekend ending well for the Cheeseheads.
SCORE PREDICTIONS: Steelers 10, Packers 0 (1Q); Steelers 23, Packers 16 (full game)
Bills -7.5 vs. Broncos (+100)
We usually don't back big-time favorites on Monday Night Football, but this one just feels too good to pass up. Buffalo has dropped two of its past three games, many within Bills Mafia want Sean McDermott and offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey on the hot seat, and Josh Allen has plummeted down to seventh on the MVP odds board at +2200. The Bills need a get-right game in the worst kind of way, and we fully expect that mission to be aided by a home game with the 3-5 Broncos.
Over half of the people who have bet this game seem to be going for the cheese after Denver upset the Chiefs two weeks ago. But remember, Patrick Mahomes had the flu that weekend and probably shouldn't have even been on the field. A Broncos defense that has allowed 54 more points than it has scored should not be trusted in Buffalo, where the Bills average a per-game scoring differential of +16.8 points. Smash the Bills like the Bengals smashed them last week, because the only way Russell Wilson goes viral on Monday Night Football is if he becomes the next great crying-athlete meme.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Bills 33, Broncos 17
Other Week 10 spreads we like: Saints -1 (1st half) at Vikings (-110); Seahawks (-6) vs. Panthers
Best NFL moneyline bets Week 10
Buccaneers (-115) vs. Titans
After the Bucs lost a 39-37 thriller to the Texans in Houston last week — a record-smashing breakout for C.J. Stroud — 55 percent of the action in this game has been on Will Levis becoming the next rookie to out-duel Baker Mayfield and proverbially break Tampa's back. We just don't see it happening, for a few different reasons.
Sure, Levis looked great in his NFL debut a couple weeks ago against the Falcons, but he was aided in a major way by Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears' combined 158 all-purpose yards. Such dominance out of Tennessee's backfield allowed Levis to run play-action on well over 50 percent of the Titans' offensive snaps. We already saw Levis come back to Earth last week against the Steelers — and while the Bucs are not nearly as strong a defense as Pittsburgh, their front-seven should be able to contain King Henry while keeping pressure on Levis in the pocket.
The Titans' defense, meanwhile, has looked underwhelming against the pass and rush as of late. Mike Vrabel's unit used to be a pass-funnel defense, stifling the run and forcing offenses to win games through the air. But over its past three games, Tennessee has allowed 148.3 rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest average during that span. And who guards Mike Evans and Chris Godwin? It might not be all that pretty for either team — Tampa's secondary is banged up in a major way right now — but we like Todd Bowles' veteran squad to prevail at home this weekend.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Buccaneers 20, Titans 17
Other Week 10 moneylines we like: Cardinals (+105) vs. Falcons; Raiders (-110) vs. Jets
Best NFL over/under bets Week 10
Ravens vs. Browns: UNDER 38
With all due respect to the 49ers and Chiefs, this game might feature the two best defenses of the 2023 NFL season. Baltimore has been incredibly solid since acquiring elite linebacker Roquan Smith late last season, while Cleveland has improved mightily in each of the past two years thanks in large part to Myles Garrett's dominance as a pass-rusher. So, while this number may seem very low, we like this divisional battle to reward the 55-percent of UNDER bettors who like to live dangerously.
Want some betting trends to back up our pick for the latest installment of this AFC North rivalry? Let's get it. The total has gone UNDER in four of the past five meetings between Cleveland and Baltimore, and in 10 of the Ravens' past 11 games at home. Now we like Deshaun Watson — who has an 86.7 passer rating and couldn't hit 220 yards against the Cardinals — to ball out at M&T Bank Stadium? Nope! This one will be a defensive battle, with Lamar Jackson narrowly eking out a victory for John Harbaugh's sqad.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Ravens 20, Browns 17
Other Week 10 over/unders we like: Falcons at Cardinals: OVER 43 (-110); Jaguars UNDER 20.5 vs. 49ers (-105); Chargers OVER 23.5 vs. Lions (+100)
MORE BETTING:
Pick'em, Survivor Pool Picks | Jets-Raiders SNF preview | Broncos-Bills MNF preview
Best NFL player prop bets Week 10
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Jared Goff, QB, Lions at Chargers — UNDER 265.5 passing yards (Piva)
Goff has enjoyed another solid season with the Lions — and I'm fine with Vinnie's Amon-Ra St. Brown over — but I just don't see the signal-caller hitting 266 passing yards on the road against this much-improved Chargers defense. Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack have come into form at the right time for the Los Angeles, with a combined 5.5 sacks and five QB hits over the past two weeks, and Detroit has taken 2.8 sacks per away game.
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
The Bolts have also limited four of their past five opponents (and five of their past seven) to UNDER 246 passing yards, while Detroit has finished with away-game passing-yardage totals of 250, 190, 340, and 253 (the 340 was against the Buccaneers, who just made C.J. Stroud look like Joe Montana). On top of all that, David Montgomery has returned from his rib injury, so the Lions' run game will be heavily featured. Pound the under here.
Rachaad White, RB, Buccaneers vs. Titans — OVER 51.5 rushing yards
Who would have thunk a few weeks ago that we'd be featuring Rachaad White in this column!? A preseason sleeper of ours, the second-year back looked like a bust — at least on the ground — through the first month and a half of the season. But oh, what a difference a few weeks can make! White has posted scrimmage-yard totals of 99, 109, and most recently 119 yards over the past three weeks.
He's also enjoying the most volume he has seen all season, with a whopping 20 carries and four receptions in last weeks high-scoring bonanza against the Texans. He turned those 20 totes into 73 yards, a number he hit earlier this season in just 17 attempts against the Bears (his second-highest carry count of the season). Tennessee no longer stifles opposing run games — Mike Vrabel's unit has allowed 148.3 rushing yards per game over the Titans' past three games, the fourth-highest average during that span. The Titans will be seeing (and not stopping) White this weekend in Tampa.
Hunter Henry, TE, Patriots vs. Lions — OVER 29.5 receiving yards (Piva)
With Kendrick Bourne hitting the IR recently, Henry immediately launched back into the discussion of Mac Jones' favorite pass-catcher. The veteran tight end enjoyed a 16-percent target share in New England's narrow loss to the Commanders, and he accounted for the Pats' only TD reception on the day.
Hayden Hurst just put 54 yards on the Colts in Week 9, and Indy has now surrendered the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends on the season. We're confident in Henry's ability to easily surpass 30 receiving yards for the fourth time in six home games.
