Eight teams remain and we enter a Divisional Round weekend with only the Bills (-2.5) vs. Chiefs within a field goal. Both 1-seeds are 9.5-point favorites while the Lions (-6.5) are practically touchdown favorites.
Every Friday, we run the NFL betting gauntlet and handpick the best moneyline, spread, over/under and player prop value opportunities on SIA. We then tell you exactly how and why you should attack the books to make some money. And through over four months of action, we have made plenty of money.
On the season, we're 171-138-2 on our best bets. That's a .553 winning percentage in a campaign filled with twists, turns, injuries, and bad beats.
Admittedly, we hit the skids a bit last week, going 7-8 thanks in large part to Joe Flacco and the Browns imploding against the Texans. We bit on the old man storyline — hook, line, and sinker! — probably because yours truly just turned 39 a mere five days before Flacco.
After carefully analyzing matchups, betting trends, and split stats, we're poised to bounce back and significantly boost our bankroll going into conference championship weekend. With the right mindset, proper level of research, and consistent preparedness, we view wagering on the NFL Playoffs as an investment, not a gamble — and we're loving our return on investment through 19 weeks.
MORE WILD CARD WEEKEND BETTING:
Vinnie Iyer against the spread | Bill Bender on the moneyline
Let's run it back and get to our best moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop bets for the divisional round of the 2023 NFL Playoffs. Good luck, have fun, and enjoy the games!
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL best bets for Divisional Playoffs against the spread
Bills (-2.5) vs. Chiefs
Could this finally be the year!? We think so. Never before in the Patrick Mahomes era have we seen Kansas City look so underwhelming on offense, especially in its brutal 5-5 stretch to close out the regular season. The Bills, meanwhile, are hot like wasabi at the right time and the right place (Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park).
Buffalo has won six consecutive games and seven of its past eight, with a scoring margin of +76 over the past two months (220-144, good for an average margin of victory of +9.5).
The Bills' game plan, play-calling, and execution looked brilliant against Pittsburgh, a team that always manages to get pesky around this time of the year. Yes, Buffalo led Pittsburgh hang around but Allen got the ball out quickly, never forced anything, and won the turnover battle. Now Allen and company enter the divisional round with momentum — and at home for the first postseason game in the history of the Allen vs. Mahomes rivalry — and we can't help but think it's finally time for the Bills to slay the beast.
The most important statistical factors in this game are third-down conversions and red-zone TD scoring. Buffalo owned the NFL's top third-down conversion rate in the regular season (49.8%) and the sixth-best red-zone TD rate (63.1%). The Bills defense, meanwhile, has held visiting opponents to a 36.5 percent third-down conversion rate and a 54.1 percent red-zone TD rate.
That's a disparity that will work in Buffalo's favor, and we simply can't see Sean McDermott's red-hot Bills falling at home to the most mistake-prone, weak-handed Chiefs team since 2012 (28 turnovers, 44 drops). The Bills prevail by a narrow margin and move on to face an even bigger beast in the AFC title game.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Bills 26, Chiefs 23 (win and cover)
Buccaneers (+6.5) at Lions
Tampa Bay is the only underdog we truly believe in this week. Dave Canales has worked wonders for the confidence of Baker Mayfield — the man has his swagger back in a major way — and we can't see Detroit running away with this one simply because Aaron Glenn's secondary has been so suspect in the home stretch of the regular season and into the Wild Card round.
The Lions have surrendered a whopping 353 passing yards over their past four games, which should have the Bucs licking their chops. And while Jared Goff and his extensive arsenal of offensive weapons — including David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta — should be able to outlast the Bucs, we see this one coming down to the wire.
Consider that Tampa Bay destroyed the NFC defending-champion Eagles 32-9 last week despite stud receiver Mike Evans having an uncharacteristically bad performance. Also consider that the Lions benefited from some questionable DPI calls — and no-calls — in a narrow 24-23 home victory over the Rams.
Why are we counting Mayfield out!? The resurgent QB has averaged 289.4 passing yards per game over the Bucs' past five contests. We think the Lions probably eke out the win straight up, but we're buying the Bucs a point and taking them to cover +7.5 with a little juice.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Lions 26, Buccaneers 23
One other divisional-round spread we like: 49ers -9.5 vs. Packers
NFL best bets for Divisional Playoffs on moneyline
Ravens -250 (1Q) vs. Texans
Many bettors will scoff at the idea of betting a -250 moneyline — but beyond the repetition of recommending the Bills -145 vs. the Chiefs, this is really the only moneyline bet we can suggest. Baltimore got an extra week to rest and prepare for Houston, a team that will be thoroughly outmatched at just about every level this weekend.
The Ravens' defense is easily the most dominating left in the AFC, and perhaps the entire NFL, and we just don't see C.J. Stroud having a fun time trying to move the chains without electric rookie wideout Tank Dell. Beyond that, Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards should have no trouble establishing good momentum on the ground against the Texans' feeble run D.
We will be betting the Ravens -9.5 against the spread, but Baltimore -250 to win the first quarter seems like an even easier green checkmark if you can stomach the vig. Otherwise, keep it moving and check out our over/under and player prop bets.
SCORE PREDICTIONS: Ravens 10, Texans 0 (1Q); Ravens 27, Texans 16 (final)
Other divisional-round moneylines we like: Bills -0.5 (1Q) vs. Chiefs (+110); Bills -145 vs. the Chiefs
NFL best bets for Divisional Playoffs: Over/under
Packers team total UNDER 20.5 (-135)
Jordan Love and the Packers have a lot to be excited about in the third-year QB's first campaign as Green Bay's starting QB. The heir to Aaron Rodgers' throne has been impeccable over the Pack's 7-2 stretch, throwing 21 TDs and just one interception over that two-month span. All that said, we have Matt LaFleur's squad plummeting back to Earth against Kyle Shanahan's 49ers this weekend.
San Francisco simply has too much firepower on both sides of the football. Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, and the Niners' elite pass-catchers should be able to firmly control the time of possession on offense, while Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and the San Fran D should make things very difficult on Love, running back Aaron Jones, and a very young Packers wideout corps. Sorry, Cheeseheads, but the party's over — at least for now.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: 49ers 30, Packers 16
Other divisional-round over/under bets we like: Bills vs. Chiefs: OVER 45.5
NFL best bets for Divisional Playoffs: Player props
Patrick Mahomes passing yards: OVER 261.5 passing yards (-115)
Mahomes hit this number just six times in Kansas City's first 12 games this season, but he has hit it three times in the five games since. That includes the Chiefs-Bills regular season game last month, when the reigning MVP and Super Bowl MVP threw for 271 yards.
Had Kadarius Toney not lined up offsides on what would have been the game-winning touchdown, Mahomes would have finished with 321 yards — and that still doesn't account for multiple drops.
But the most promising stat to support the OVER here: Mahomes threw for OVER 261.5 yards in four of Kansas City's six road games this season, and he averaged 263.1 passing yards per away game during the campaign. Even better, he has averaged 289.7 YPG across his storied postseason career and 301.5 YPG lifetime against Buffalo.
Also of note? Bills star linebacker Terrel Bernard — who played 100 percent of the snaps in that Week 14 matchup and led the team with 143 tackles this season — was carted off the field in the wild card win over the Steelers and may not play.
When Kansas City needs a big performance, it's the two-time Super Bowl MVP quarterback who steps up and gets it done. This one isn't at Arrowhead Stadium, but we're still smashing this OVER like an air tomahawk.
Lamar Jackson anytime touchdown scorer (+110)
Houston has surrendered an NFL-high seven rushing TDs to quarterbacks this season, and Jackson finished the regular season ranked first in the league in yards per rush attempt (5.5). He also scored five times, which ties him for fourth-most among QBs during the 2023 campaign. We wouldn't bet the farm on Jackson scoring, but we certainly like the plus odds for a $20 bet.
If you're looking for more value. on the ground, consider Gus Edwards to score a TD (-110). The Texans allowed 19 rushing TDs on the season (sixth-most) and Baltimore got a whopping 13 scores from the Gus Bus this season.
Other divisional-round player props we like: Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs at Bills: OVER 5.5 catches (-140); Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers vs. Packers: Most receiving yards in game (+210); Aaron Jones, RB, Packers at 49ers: UNDER 67.5 rushing yards (-115)
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