When the NFL offseason started, the NFC South looked wide open.
Tom Brady had retired, Jameis Winston was a free agent, and the Falcons and Panthers looked to be heading upwards.
Now, however, the NFC South is looking like it's the Buccaneers and everyone else.
No team has coveted Deshaun Watson more than the Panthers since it appeared the star quarterback was going to be traded from the Texans. They were in on him since last offseason, and as far back as January it was being reported they would be "aggressive" in their pursuit of him.
When Tom Brady came back from his "retirement," if you can call it that, the Saints, Panthers, and Falcons all ratcheted up their urgency in landing Watson. Once it became clear a grand jury wasn't going to indict Watson, all bets were off: The sweepstakes had begun.
If that sounds gross, it's because it is. But irrespective of the ongoing legal issues, Watson had reportedly narrowed his options down to the Browns, Panthers, Saints, and Falcons less than a week after teams began openly pursuing him. All four teams had reportedly presented the Texans with a viable trade package, which just left the ball in Watson's court for him to dismiss his no-trade clause and decide where he wanted it go.
Watson, at one point, apparently had narrowed it down to the Saints and Falcons. Then, after a shocking about-face, Watson chose Cleveland.
So, where does this leave the NFC South?
The Saints rallied and re-signed Jameis Winston, who went 5-2 as their starter last year and looked like he had curbed his turnover-prone ways. The Falcons, meanwhile, had alienated Matt Ryan in their pursuit of Watson, leading to his trade to the Colts for peanuts, signing Marcus Mariota as the 14-year vet's replacement. The Panthers, finally, did basically nothing and appear to have no clear roadmap.
MORE: What's next for Browns' Baker Mayfield, 49ers' Jimmy Garoppolo after Matt Ryan trade
Here's how the division shakes out in the rubble of the Watson situation. Oh, and Brady's unretirement.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
You probably won't find many people arguing this point. The Buccaneers not only landed Brady, they re-signed a few key pieces in the process. Chris Godwin will be staying in Tampa Bay, as will Leonard Fournette. The latter in particular looked ready to step out.
As of Tuesday, the Buccaneers are -320 to win the South, easily the best of any division leader. Brady may have seen the road to Super Bowl 47 and didn't see many obstacles in his way, which may have played into his decision to ultimately return. The Bucs, of course, ultimately lost to the Rams in the Divisional Round last year, but they also have the best odds in the NFC as of Tuesday.
Brady's return to the league ultimately was the kiss of death for a division that had a few teams looking ahead to transition periods. Once Watson became available, it was a race to see who would at least compete with the Buccaneers. When no one landed him and the dust cleared, the Buccaneers were clearly sitting on top of the mountain in the South.
2. New Orleans Saints
To say the Saints are in "good" shape would be extremely kind. New Orleans has done basically nothing to make itself better this offseason, but it's different from the Falcons and Panthers in that it also isn't making itself worse.
The Saint re-signed Jameis Winston after failing to land Watson, slapping a Band-Aid on their quarterback situation with a 2-year deal. The way this offseason shook out indicates the Saints are far from sold on Winston, but with big contracts still in play to Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, GM Mickey Loomis doesn't seem to be comfortable embracing the team's impending rebuild just yet, even with the turnover of a new head coach in Dennis Allen after Sean Payton's retirement. To their credit, a similar roster managed to beat the Buccaneers twice last year -- but it also lost a lot of close games and often played to its competition.
MORE: Saints, Jameis Winston forced to settle for each other in busy offseason for NFL quarterbacks
Signing Winston leaves the Saints in a better place than they were last Saturday, but it still leaves a lot of questions. Thomas doesn't have help on the receiving corps -- not even accounting for Thomas' own health -- and the Saints' offensive line is in a weird space between fine and good. If Terron Armstead signs elsewhere (and the longer his free agency plays out, the more likely that looks), left tackle suddenly becomes a problem. That's bad news in a conference that just featured a dominant Super Bowl performance from the Rams defensive line. Even if the Saints do make it in as a wild card team, what does the postseason hold for them?
3. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have backed themselves into an impossible situation as the bizarro-world Colts. While the Colts cycled through Philip Rivers and Carson Wentz before landing on Matt Ryan this year, the Panthers have found themselves with Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, and who knows in the coming season.
Matt Rhule's tenure with the Panthers has been a revolving door of terrible quarterback play. The Panthers might coin a new rule with all this: If P.J. Walker is getting starting snaps and it isn't due to injury, you have to draft a quarterback in the coming season.
The Panthers have repeatedly set their sights on big-ticket quarterbacks, culminating in Watson, and time and time again they've struck out. They're now heading into next year with a roster that features a constantly-injured playmaker in Christian McCaffrey, a good receiver in D.J. Moore, a strong defensive line, and weaknesses almost everywhere else.
GM Scott Fitterer appears to subscribe to the philosophy that a great quarterback can help to create good situations, and that's often true. But you can't simply rely on one falling into your lap, and that philosophy will come back to haunt the Panthers this year whether Darnold or someone else is starting for Carolina in September.
4. Atlanta Falcons
If the Saints and Panthers can say one good thing about the Watson situation, it's the fact they didn't alienate a face of the franchise in their pursuit.
Although Matt Ryan has handled his departure from Atlanta with grace, it doesn't seem like he was willing to play ball with the team on a new contract after the Watson situation played out. He was traded to the Colts for a third-round pick, and the Falcons were forced to sign Marcus Mariota to at least give Feleipe Franks competition in camp.
It's not a good situation in Atlanta, but there is a silver lining. This team is going to be embarrassingly bad in 2022, which means a good draft pick (Bryce Young) is coming their way in 2023. Perhaps there was a hope that getting rid of Ryan could let the Falcons complete their teardown under GM Terry Fontenot and retool from scratch. Over $40 million will be on the Falcons' books for Ryan this season-- they have no flexibility. Calvin Ridley won't be an option for them next season. Buckle up, Falcons fans. While it looks ugly now, the team looks to have over $100 million to throw around next year in addition to what will be an extremely high draft pick (Again, Bryce Young).
For the purposes of this season, that means nothing. This team is going to be very bad. But there is light at the end of that tunnel, no matter how faint.
