The Falcons aren't course correcting, they're looking for a course.
This offseason has been all over the map for Atlanta and new GM Terry Fontenot. While it started looking like Atlanta had at least laid a groundwork -- with an elite pass-catching tight end in Kyle Pitts, a top-flight cornerback in A.J. Terrell, and a quarterback in Matt Ryan -- all of that has been blown up in the span of the past week.
Deshaun Watson had reportedly narrowed his options down to the Saints and his hometown Falcons last week, before the Browns backed up the Brinks truck and bought themselves a new quarterback. That left the Saints and Falcons twisting in the wind, though the Saints have found their answer in familiar face Jameis Winston.
The Falcons followed up by paying the piper almost immediately. After pushing Ryan's $7.5 million roster bonus to Monday from last Friday, that gave them a new deadline to acquiesce if Ryan decided he wanted to leave. Per Adam Schefter, he did:
Matt Ryan never asked the Falcons for a new contract -- that was not a part of the equation, per sources. He just felt like the time had come to move on from Atlanta. Ryan signed off on a trade to Indianapolis because he felt like the Colts have a roster that's built to win now.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 21, 2022
How bad is it in Atlanta?
To call the Watson situation a "miscalculation" on Atlanta's part with the benefit of hindsight would be to call Tom Brady's retirement "a little premature." It was a myopic, conscious decision and the Falcons must have known the consequences of failure, yet they acted all the same. The result is $40.5 million in dead cap space for Ryan's deal, the most in NFL history.
That $40.5 million, by the way, is compounded with Julio Jones' $15.5 million dead cap hit. That and an assortment of other deals put the Falcons at just under $62.1 million in dead cap space -- about 30 percent of the salary cap this season.
Ryan leaves the Falcons the team's winningest quarterback, its passing yards leader, its passing touchdowns leader, its completions leader, and a former MVP. He led the Falcons to the Super Bowl. His departure from Atlanta wasn't supposed to happen like this, but the allure of Watson blinded the Falcons to the repercussions of not landing him.
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What do the Falcons do next?
At this point, Atlanta needs a two-year plan -- minimum -- to fix its roster. The Falcons don't have a history of trying to pluck out veteran quarterbacks, although neither did a lot of the teams who tried to get involved in the quarterback carousel this offseason. Regardless, Arthur Smith coached the Falcons above their talent level last year, but priority No. 1 has to be landing a quarterback.
The Falcons announced Monday they have agreed to terms with Smith's former pupil Marcus Mariota on a two year deal, giving them a nominal starter for 2022. In a draft that has a dearth of standout quarterback talent, the Falcons figure to add a young QB to develop for the future and see what happens. From there, the Falcons have an outrageous of money to play with in free agency next year -- about $122 million, in fact. Perhaps that's where they truly fill out their roster and try to make a run in 2023.
What was the Falcons' plan?
This question is rhetorical, because the answer is really "who knows?" Atlanta likely wasn't a competitor even with Watson on the roster. It doesn't have people to throw the ball to, its interior line is anywhere from bad to inconsistent, and its defense was 29th in the league last year, giving up a whopping 27 points per game.
It seems like ownership saw a fast track to competing this year if it could land Watson, and threw everything out the window going for him. Fontenot's role in this is curious, as now he's left holding a check he can't cash until next year in one hand and absolutely nothing in the other. For a first-time GM, this is a nightmare scenario.
Perhaps the Falcons can salvage this situation, but for the time being it doesn't look great. The Ryan situation is sure to stick in the craw of players and fans alike, as it's hard for a fanbase to see a storied player go out in this fashion. Ultimately, the Falcons will have to accept that the upcoming season is very likely a wash. From there, it's looking ahead to next offseason -- just don't expect that kind of patience from the entire fanbase.
