How the Lions lost to the 49ers: Dan Campbell's fourth-down decisions, defensive collapse doom Detroit

Jacob Camenker

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How the Lions lost to the 49ers: Dan Campbell's fourth-down decisions, defensive collapse doom Detroit image

The Lions looked great at halftime of their NFC championship game matchup with the 49ers. They were leading 24-7 and had scored on four of their five first-half possession.

Detroit just needed to sustain its performance and avoid major mistakes in the second half to make it to the Super Bowl for the first time in the franchise's history.

It couldn't achieve either goal.

The 49ers scored a whopping 27 unanswered points, erasing the Lions' 17-point lead over eight minutes in the third quarter. Detroit couldn't stem San Francisco's momentum after that and failed in its efforts to make a last-minute comeback.

The Lions' collapse was punctuated by a myriad of factors that included aggressive decision-making, untimely turnovers and, in some cases, just rotten luck. At the end of the day, it all added up to a painful defeat that will haunt Detroiters as they continue to await the team's first-ever Super Bowl run.

DECOURCY: Lions should be kicking themselves for Dan Campbell's reckless decisions

Dan Campbell's fourth-down decisions

Dan Campbell has been one of the NFL's most aggressive coaches on fourth down during his three-year tenure with the Lions.

That trend continued on Sunday. However, this time, Campbell's aggressiveness did not pay off.

The Lions went for it on fourth down twice against the Chiefs while in field goal range. In each instance, the team was stopped an surrendered an opportunity to kick a field goal from inside of 50 yards.

The first attempt came with the Lions leading by 14 points. They were facing a fourth-and-2 and could have chosen to either attempt a 45-yard field goal with Michael Badgley or try to pick up a first down and continue the drive.

To nobody's surprise, Campbell picked the latter option. Jared Goff managed to escape Nick Bosa's pass rush on the play and fired a pass slightly to the right of Josh Reynolds. The veteran receiver got both hands on it but failed to bring it in.

The second decision was more controversial, as it came with Detroit trailing by three points. Rather than attempt a 47-yard field goal, Campbell opted to go for it on fourth-and-3. Once again, Goff failed to connect with a receiver, as he was forced to make a throw on the run that didn't quite get to its intended receiver.

Campbell's decisions were scrutinized heavily by NFL fans and the broadcast alike. That said, it's worth noting that while each was an analytical coin flip, in both instances, the Lions' win probability increased by going for it. On the first play, it rose 0.2 percent, per ESPN's Seth Walder. The second attempt saw the win probability rise by 0.3 percent by going for it, per Walder. 

It's fair to wonder whether Campbell should have played it a bit more conservatively, particularly when the Lions held the lead. After all, the 49ers built momentum following that stop, and that's what allowed San Francisco to go on its second-half run.

Still, Campbell's decisions were far from hubristic. They had mathematical merit and fit his strategy from throughout his three seasons with the Lions.

This time, they just didn't pan out.

MORE: How Lions' fourth-quarter, fourth-down gamble backfired

Brandon Aiyuk's circus catch

Of course, it didn't help Campbell's cause that almost immediately following the team's first fourth-down failure the Lions gave up one of the more bizarre downfield completions of the entire NFL season.

Brock Purdy launched a pass deep downfield to Brandon Aiyuk just two plays after the Lions' failed conversion. It appeared that Detroit defensive back Kindle Vildor was positioned to intercept the ball, as he had coverage over the top of Aiyuk.

However, the pass slipped through Vildor's hands and hit him in the facemask. It then bounced straight into the air allowing Aiyuk to dive over the fallen defender and grab the ball while falling to the ground in the proverbial "backyard football" play.

A few plays later, Aiyuk would find his way into the end-zone, cutting the Lions' lead to just seven points.

So, within a three-down span, the Lions saw two drops completely shift the tenor of the game they were playing. Had one of Reynolds or Vildor caught the ball — or if Aiyuk had failed to make the circus catch — Detroit's chances of winning wouldn't have evaporated as quickly.

But whether it was lack of focus or plain old bad luck for the Lions, the Aiyuk catch proved a costly blow to their chance.

BENDER: Predicting who will win the Chiefs vs. 49ers Super Bowl

Jahmyr Gibbs' fumble

Just as costly was Jahmyr Gibbs' fumble on the drive after the 49ers cut the deficit to seven. The Lions entrusted the rookie with the ball in order to slow San Francisco's roll, but instead, he coughed it right back up as he and Jared Goff struggled to connect at the mesh point.

That turnover was the Lions' lone one of the afternoon, but it gave the 49ers a short field with which to work. It also fed into San Francisco's already burgeoning momentum, which reached full strength after the 49ers offense scored the game-tying touchdown just four plays later.

All told, the Lions managed to blow their 17-point lead in less than one quarter of game action. That meant they would have to scrap to win the NFC championship game for the first time in franchise history.

While the Lions kept it close, they never led again once the 49ers came back to tie it up.

MORE: Where Lions' collapse ranks among biggest blown leads in NFL playoff history

Brock Purdy's rushing performance

One of the reasons that the Lions struggled in the second half was that they failed to contain Brock Purdy. It wasn't necessarily through the air, however; it was thanks to his legs.

Purdy managed a critical, 21-yard scramble on a third-and-4 with just under five minutes remaining in regulation that proved crushing to the Lions' chances of winning. The team was trailing by just three points at that time, and with a stop, the Lions could have positioned themselves to mount at least a game-tying drive.

Instead, Purdy was able to escape pressure and outrun linebacker Alex Anzalone to the right side of the field. That allowed him to easily pick up the first down and set the 49ers up with a first down in scoring range.

That scramble ultimately set up the 49ers' game-sealing touchdown, so the Lions have to be kicking themselves a bit for not game-planning better for Purdy's underrated mobility.

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Dan Campbell's final-drive timeout

The final nail-in-the-coffin for the Lions came on their final drive. Detroit had mounted a quick drive to get the ball to the 49ers 1-yard line. They were still trailing by 10 with 1:05 left in the game, but they had all three timeouts left.

However, Campbell and Co. decided to run the ball from the 1-yard line with David Montgomery on third-and-goal from the 1-yard line. He was stuffed by the 49ers, and that forced Detroit to use tits first timeout with 1 minute left in the contest.

Scoring was of the utmost importance for the Lions, so it's easy to understand why Detroit ran it with its big-bodied back. Still, the Lions' failure to reach paydirt robbed them of a true chance to stop the 49ers three times and get the ball back at the end of regulation.

As a result, Detroit had to settle for an onside kick, which it predictably failed to recover. Then, despite the Lions having two timeouts remaining, the 49ers were able to run out the clock on them, with Purdy taking a knee to close the contest.

If Campbell could do it over, perhaps he would have passed on third down and then run it on fourth, as that would have allowed the Lions to retain their third timeout.

Instead, that will stand as one of Campbell's regrets from a rocky second-half display.

Jacob Camenker

Jacob Camenker Photo

Jacob Camenker first joined The Sporting News as a fantasy football intern in 2018 after his graduation from UMass. He became a full-time employee with TSN in 2021 and now serves as a senior content producer with a particular focus on the NFL. Jacob worked at NBC Sports Boston as a content producer from 2019 to 2021. He is an avid fan of the NFL Draft and ranked 10th in FantasyPros’ Mock Draft Accuracy metric in both 2021 and 2022.