Let the Jordan Love era begin in Green Bay.
The Packers traded four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers to the Jets on Monday for a package that includes four draft picks. Rodgers spent 18 seasons in Green Bay, including 15 as the starter, after being selected with the No. 24 pick in the 2005 NFL Draft, but now heads to the Big Apple with a chance to finish his Hall of Fame career with New York.
Green Bay drafted Love with the No. 26 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, a pick that has been dissected and over-analyzed for three seasons since.
The Packers won Super Bowl 45 with Rodgers in 2010, but that second Super Bowl eluded the franchise.
Love inherits a team that finished 8-9 and missed the playoffs for the first time under coach Matt LaFleur. While Rodgers in the Big Apple will be the headliner, Love's career progress with the Packers will be every bit as intriguing in 2023.
TRADE GRADES: Jets jump into AFC title contention; Packers usher in Jordan Love era
What to expect from Jordan Love
Love, like Rodgers, was patient enough to be a backup quarterback for his first three seasons in the NFL — though Love had a few more hurdles in that development.
There was no preseason during Love's rookie year in 2020 because of COVID-19. Love's preseason statistics the last two seasons reveal a few trends worth watching this season. He is 65 of 109 for 709 yards, four TDs and five interceptions. That's a 59.6% completion percentage, which will need to improve significantly.
In the regular season, Love is 50 of 83 for 606 yards, three TDs and three interceptions.
Love's only career start came on Nov. 7, 2021, when Rodgers tested positive for COVID-19. Love struggled against Kansas City. He finished 19 of 34 for 190 yards, one TD and one interception and was sacked six times. A year later, Love flashed on Nov. 27, 2022, in mop-up duty against the Eagles. He finished 6 of 9 for 113 yards and a TD, and that prompted conversations about whether he should replace Rodgers, who was dealing with a thumb injury.
Don't overvalue either performance. Truth is neither one of those samples will matter much when Love takes over the starting job in Week 1.
When you combine Love's preseason and regular-season stats, he has a 60% completion percentage with seven TDs and eight interceptions. He also averages 11.4 yards per completion, which is a sign of that play-making potential.
Asking Love to be near Rodgers' MVP-level of play is too much to ask, but targeting a line like Rodgers had in a down year in 2021 — one that entailed 3,695 yards, 26 TDs and 12 interceptions — seems more reasonable.
MORE: Revisiting Brett Favre's 2008 trade from Packers to Jets
Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre's first season as starter
Brett Favre replaced an injured Don Majkowski in Week 3 of the 1992 season, and a streak of 297 consecutive starts followed. Favre's first season in Green Bay, however, was a mix of highlight-reel plays and mistakes. He finished 8-5 as a starter with 3,227 yards, 18 TDs and 13 interceptions. The Packers missed the playoffs with a 9-7 record.
Rodgers replaced Favre, and the first-year transition had bumps. Rodgers had 4,038 yards, 28 TDs and 13 interceptions, but the Packers finished 6-10. The following season, Green Bay lost two head-to-head meetings against the Favre-led Vikings. Favre and Rodgers both made the postseason in their second season with Green Bay.
How the Packers can help Jordan Love
Can Love be accurate and limit mistakes? Those are the two huge questions that will need answered, but Love had a year with offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich. There should be some continuity in the offense.
Star running back Aaron Jones restructured his contract, and A.J. Dillon has one more year left on his contract. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs showed flashes as rookie receivers, and the offensive line will be healthy next season. Watson, in particular, could be in for a full-fledged breakout season and emerge as Love's go-to receiver. It's not Rodgers to Davante Adams, but that connection didn't happen overnight either.
Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan could leave via free agency, too.
Ladies and gentlemen allow us to introduce you to the Jordan Love/Christian Watson connection pic.twitter.com/KOUvI6Ksvw
— Packers Total Access Podcast- Clayton (@packers_access) November 28, 2022
The irony here will be the Packers grabbing playmakers for Love via the 2023 NFL Draft. Sporting News' latest mock draft has Green Bay taking Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer with the No. 15 pick. What if this is the year the Packers take a first-round receiver like Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
MORE: Why the Packers had to move on from Aaron Rodgers
Jordan Love's contract
This is a huge year for Love knowing it's the fourth year of his rookie contract. Love will make a base salary of $2.3 million; a number that increases to $20.3 million if Green Bay picks up Love's fifth-year option in 2023.
The Packers had $24 million in cap space before the Rodgers trade, but now Green Bay can accelerate a makeover with that cap room. Now, the Packers can make that evaluation once and for all. If it doesn't pan out and Green Bay wants to move on, then the 2024 NFL Draft class option features enticing options such as North Carolina's Drake Maye and USC's Caleb Williams.
Jordan Love and 'fresh start' factor
There is no questioning Rodgers' legacy with the Packers, but ever since general manager Brian Gutekunst drafted Love this day was coming. Rodgers signed a three-year, $150 million contract in 2022.
Rodgers has contemplated retirement, talked about his experiences with ayahuasca and went on a darkness retreat this offseason. Most of the headlines with the future Hall of Fame quarterback have drifted away from football, and this is a chance for Green Bay to move on.
Rodgers turns 40 this season, and there will always be the risk he shows the Packers up at Lambeau Field like Favre did twice in 2009. Who remembers the following season? Rodgers led the Packers to a pair of head-to-head victories against Favre and led Green Bay to its last Super Bowl victory.
In this case, the Packers need to see what they have Love, and the 20-16 loss to Detroit in Week 18 amplified the need for that.
Will that lead to better results on the field for Love?
MORE: Biggest winners, losers from Aaron Rodgers' trade to Jets
Jordan Love: What is a successful 2023?
How does Green Bay fare in the NFC North? That is a fair first measuring stick for Love, and it won't be an easy act to follow.
Packers won the NFC North eight times in 15 seasons with Rodgers, who had a combined record of 59-24-1 against the Vikings, Bears and Lions. The Vikings won the NFC North in 2022, the Lions are 3-1 against the Packers with Dan Campbell, and the Bears are building around Justin Fields. It's a brave new world for Green Bay, and those are the games that will define Love's first season.
The Packers face the NFC South and AFC West – and that second start against the Chiefs will be another flex point for Love's development. How much has he truly progressed since that last start?
If Love's development is true, then Green Bay might experience a season much like 2022, which featured growing pains before a late-season push that almost resulted in a playoff berth. That would be a good first step in the Love era.
