Quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota have been joined at the hip since they entered the NFL as the top two picks in the 2015 NFL Draft. Both have had their moments, but overall, it's mostly been mediocrity, as shown by only one Pro Bowl selection (Winston as a rookie) and only one playoff season (Mariota in 2017) between them. Their career passer ratings (89.4 for Mariota; 87.8 for Winston) are virtually identical and middle-of-the-pack among QBs. Neither has a winning record as starter, although Mariota's (27-28 in regular season and 1-1 in playoffs) is much closer to .500 than Winston's 21-33 mark.
Now the moment of truth has arrived, and we will soon find out the direction their careers are headed.
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If their 2019 play is similar to what they've produced so far, and if I were in the shoes of Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht and/or Titans GM Jon Robinson, I would hold the line and not commit to huge extensions. Instead, I probably would look to a strong 2020 QB draft class, where I could get a much lower-cost player and invest in talent around him for four or so years.
However, if Winston and Mariota can elevate their play and have very good seasons while their teams show improvement, it's an easy call for Licht and Robinson to feel they are set for years to come at the game's most important position, and they will pay this pair of 25-year-olds market value.
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How Winston and Mariota stack up in 2019
Part of the problem for Winston has been off-field issues, including a three-game suspension last season for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy. For Mariota, it's been a succession of injuries that have cost him eight games over his career, including the 2018 season finale against the Colts with a playoff spot on the line. Both players have been plagued by multiple coaching staff and supporting cast changes.
Their lack of consistent elite-level play has put them in an identical contract category, as they both are playing this season under their fifth-year option with a $20.9 million salary. It's great money for one year, but the pressure is on both to convince their teams they are worthy of a lucrative extension at the going rate for perceived franchise QBs — $25 million-$30 million or more per year, with guarantees around $100 million on long-term deals.
Winston, though, has a couple advantages over Mariota entering the 2019 season.
Coaching-wise, Winston has a well-regarded QB guru in new head coach Bruce Arians, who has tutored Pro Bowlers Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck and Carson Palmer. Winston also will work with offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, who played 10 years as an NFL QB, and QB coach Clyde Christensen, a former offensive coordinator for the Colts in the Manning era. The receiving corps in Tampa Bay is led by a proven No. 1 receiver in two-time Pro Bowler Mike Evans.
In contrast, Mariota is working with his fourth offensive play-caller and a first-time coordinator in Arthur Smith, who was last year's tight ends coach in Tennessee. With Derrick Henry leading the way, he does have a better running game than Winston does, but Titans wide receiver Corey Davis has not yet played up to his draft status as the fifth overall pick in 2017. And Mariota's favorite target from the past, tight end Delanie Walker, is coming off a broken ankle and is 34. At least Mariota did get a nice free-agent addition in slot receiver Adam Humphries.
Winston and Mariota both seem to be well liked by teammates. They both have good leadership skills, Winston being the more vocal type, while Mariota is quieter by nature but still an effective leader. The expectations have been sky high from Day 1 for both, and their teams would love to see them emerge into the consistent, top 10-caliber QBs they envisioned on draft day in 2015.
Along with solid play, part of the equation must be for Winston to stay out of trouble off the field and for Mariota to stay relatively injury-free. Winston says he is a different person now with a fiancee, a son and a commitment to his faith. Meanwhile, Mariota reportedly has put on 12 pounds in an effort to better absorb the hits from pass-rushers.
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Such success in 2019 would bring Winston and Mariota their aforementioned market value, which should at least put them at the level of Jimmy Garoppolo's deal with the 49ers — $27.5 million per year for a player who had eight career starts when he got the big bucks — and Kirk Cousins' $28 million-per-year contract with the Vikings.
On a comparative basis, it's interesting to hear the chatter surrounding the successful QBs who followed Winston and Mariota. This includes Jared Goff (Rams), Carson Wentz (Eagles) and Dak Prescott (Cowboys) from the 2016 draft class. All three young stars are projected to join the $30 million-plus club within the next two years. And following them are three QBs from the 2017 draft class in Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Mitchell Trubisky (Bears) and Deshaun Watson (Texans).
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Winston and Mariota might not be the biggest stories nationally going into the 2019 season, but their performances will be under the microscope in the front offices of the Bucs and Titans. We soon will see if one can finally separate himself from the other, or if one (or both) can send his career trajectory upward and solidify his long-term future with his current team.
If they don't, they will join the list of migrant QBs searching in free agency for their next team.
Jeff Diamond is a former president of the Titans and former vice president/general manager of the Vikings. He was selected NFL Executive of the Year in 1998. Diamond is currently a business and sports consultant who also does broadcast and online media work. He makes speaking appearances to corporate/civic groups and college classes on negotiation and sports business/sports management. He is the former chairman and CEO of The Ingram Group. Follow Jeff on Twitter: @jeffdiamondNFL.
