Jaguars playoff picture: Jacksonville's updated AFC South, wild-card chances to make 2023 NFL playoffs

Many expected the Jaguars to cruise to a second consecutive AFC South title this season. Through 12 weeks, that seemed to be the case, despite progress by both the Texans and Colts this season. Suddenly, though, Jacksonville finds itself in a precarious position.

Three consecutive losses, compounded by an ankle injury that left QB Trevor Lawrence at less than 100 percent, have kept the door wide open for Houston and Indianapolis to threaten the Jaguars in the AFC South. With a crowded wild-card race also taking shape in the AFC, the Jaguars aren't assured of a return to the playoffs if they can't capture the division crown.

Thanks to that recent slide, Jacksonville faces a critical stretch of games over the final month of the season, a stretch that began with disappointment with a loss to the Ravens on "Sunday Night Football."

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Here's an updated look at the Jaguars' place in the playoff picture and what they might have to do to maintain their place atop the AFC South.

Jaguars playoff picture

With three weeks remaining, the Jaguars (8-6) are still in control of their fate. While they are locked into a three-way tie atop the AFC South, Jacksonville holds the tiebreaker over both teams thanks to its divisional record.

In the scenario of a three-way tie, the Jaguars hold the tiebreaker thanks to a 3-1 record against the Colts and Texans. Jacksonville also has the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Colts thanks to a season sweep of Indianapolis, and the Jaguars would also likely win the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Texans with a much better divisional record (4-1) than Houston (1-2). 

However, the loss to the Ravens certainly poses an issue for the Jaguars. There is less margin for error when you are relying on two teams to lose behind you, rather than just one, even with a tiebreaker advantage. Jacksonville was fortunate to see both Houston and Indianapolis lose in Week 14 and maintain its one-game lead, but the Texans and Colts both pulled even with wins in Week 15.

The Jaguars are hoping to avoid any involvement in the AFC wild-card race, but they would not be assured of a spot if they do fall out of the AFC South lead. Four teams are currently tied for the final two spots at 8-6, so it's possible it might take 10 wins and some tiebreaker help just to get a wild-card berth. 

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Jaguars remaining schedule 

The Jaguars close their season against two eliminated teams, but a Week 16 matchup with Baker Mayfield and the surging Buccaneers is set to be a massive showdown for both teams.