A modern NFL tradition continues this Sunday morning when the Jaguars and Falcons meet at Wembley Stadium in London (9:30 a.m. ET, ESPN+, NFL+). The Jaguars (1-2) will look to get things going after a bumpy first few games, while the Falcons (2-1) look to rebound from a tough first loss of the season. Today, we will discuss the odds for this UK clash and declare our final score prediction, best bets, and top props.
Doug Pederson's second season in Jacksonville has been tough sledding. The Jags beat the injury-ravaged Colts in Week 1 but lost to the Chiefs and Texans in Weeks 2 and 3 by a combined score of 54-26. Maybe a 10-hour flight from Florida to England will be good for Trevor Lawrence and company because this squad has looked awful in two straight home games. In Week 2, it was the offense that stunk. In Week 3, the defense got rocked.
The Falcons, meanwhile, started the season hot but then crashed back to Earth in Detroit on Sunday. Desmond Ridder has relied heavily on his running back tandem of rookie Bijan Robinson and second-year stud Tyler Allgeier, but Atlanta's passing game has been one of the more underwhelming of the NFL.
Unless this weekend brings us the second NFL tie in Wembley Stadium history, one of these teams must reverse course and finish the weekend with a win. Let's dive into the Jaguars-Falcons odds, see how the money has been flowing, and make our picks and predictions for this interconference clash across the pond.
Jaguars vs. Falcons odds, spread, over/under
All odds courtesy of BetMGM. Click HERE to sign up!
Spread: Jaguars -3 (-105) | Falcons +3 (-115)
Total: OVER 43.5 (-110) | UNDER 43.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Jaguars -165 | Falcons +140
The Jaguars sit as -3.5 favorites to win at their home away from home, Wembley Stadium. This marks the 10th game Jacksonville has played in the famed London venue, which Jags owner Shahid Khan has expressed interest in eventually buying. The -165 moneyline implies a win probability of a little over 62 percent for TLaw and company.
According to BetQL's sharp betting report, 82 percent of the moneyline handle has been bet on Jacksonville. However, 72 percent of the ATS money has gone Atlanta's way. That's probably why the Falcons spread has narrowed from +3.5 to +3 on some sites over the course of the week. As of Wednesday at 11:30 a.m. ET, BetMGM was the only major book still offering the Falcons at +3.5. By 12:30 p.m., it had shifted to +3.
Should you bet the Jaguars against the spread?
Who would have predicted one month ago that Jacksonville would open 1-2 and Atlanta would start 2-1? The Jaguars were one of the more popular preseason picks to contend for the AFC while the Falcons were widely considered a generous over/under at 8.5 games. Now Jacksonville has to bring it to avoid a lonely overseas trip to the basement of the AFC South.
We're expecting just that, with Doug Pederson and his squad practically in must-win mode at their home away from home. Even though the Falcons D has been pretty good — thriving at times under the newfound leadership of Jessie Bates in an underrated secondary — Atlanta has still allowed plenty of big plays due to lapses in focus. Jacksonville's offense — especially in a slightly home-favored neutral site — stacks up better than the ATL's.
Falcons head coach Arthur Smith and offensive coordinator Dave Ragone have basically asked Desmond Ridder to be a mistake-free game manager. That doesn't always work against strong offenses and surprisingly good defenses, as we learned last week when the Falcons lost 20-6 in Motown.
The Lions sold out to stop the run and put constant pressure on Ridder. The second-year QB got sacked seven times, and Atlanta only netted 2.8 yards per play when all was said and done. We like Jacksonville's front-seven to get after it in a similar manner this Sunday and steal the show at Wembley.
The Jags totaled four sacks in their only road game this season, a 31-21 win in Indianapolis, and they racked up three takeaways against the Colts and Chiefs. The weather in London might be "partly cloudy" on Sunday, but it will be a gloomy afternoon for the Dirty Birds.
Our Pick: Jaguars -3
Final score prediction: Jaguars 20, Falcons 16
Should you bet the Jaguars vs. Falcons' UNDER?
We're pounding the UNDER in this one, as the London games aren't always all that pretty and these squads scored a combined 23 points last weekend (against the Texans and Lions, no less). Jacksonville and Atlanta also have two of the more underrated pass-rushes in the NFL, although the Jags clearly struggled against DeMeco Ryans' Texans.
Doug Pederson's squad won't be ill-prepared for a third week in a row considering this young squad might be playing for Pederson's job at this point. A loss would move Jacksonville to 1-3 and at least temporarily into the basement of the AFC South. There really is no room for error, and consecutive losses to below-average teams like Houston and Atlanta would constitute quite the 1-2 punch of errors.
We understand why you might be inclined to bet the OVER. Bijan Robinson has stood out as one of the early Offensive Rookie of the Year favorites for the Falcons, and both Travis Etienne and Calvin Ridley have looked special for the Jags in different moments throughout the first three weeks. However, these QBs are not quite capable of engaging in a shootout right now, and their respective offensive lines have much more weaknesses than their pass-rushes. Even if we don't see London fog or rain, this will be a sloppy Sunday of overseas football.
Our Pick: UNDER 43.5 (-110)
Best Jaguars vs. Falcons prop bet on SuperDraft
Drake London, WR, Falcons — UNDER 43.5 receiving yards
We get it: you want to bet London to go off in London, but Drake's OVER bettors will be howling at the moon like werewolves this weekend (I know, brutal Warren Zevon reference from Dad joker over here). Let's face facts: The second-year receiver has totaled just 98 yards through three games (32 yards and some change per game), and Ridder has been sacked four times per game (tied for third most in the NFL).
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None of this spells success for the wideout this Sunday, as Ridder should once again struggle to get the ball out of the pocket quickly under pressure. He's too young and inexperienced to make good, strong decisions (or even reads) in the face of constant blitzes. Nearly 15 percent of his pass attempts have constituted as "poor" throws, per FantasyPros, and he's taken 12 sacks and seven knockdowns while being hurried to throw nine times. Ridder and London will continue to struggle, and we will continue to rake on the prop market.
