In a rematch of last season's AFC divisional round matchup, the Jaguars (+3) look to avenge a narrow 27-20 road loss, hosting the reigning Super Bowl Champion Chiefs in Week 2 (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS). The Chiefs look to avoid an 0-2 start after a somewhat shocking 21-20 home loss to the upstart Lions in the NFL Kickoff Game, while the Jaguars will aim to extend their lead in the AFC South following a 31-21 road win against the Colts.
The Chiefs' Week 1 result came dangerously close to a different outcome, as an uncharacteristic pick-six by Patrick Mahomes, along with five dropped passes by his wide receivers, crushed Kansas City's hopes of starting the season 1-0. That said, Mahomes should have his top receiving threat back in the fold, as Travis Kelce's (knee) trending towards making his season debut. The Chiefs should also get defensive end Chris Jones back on the field in Week 2 after recently agreeing to a one-year contract extension.
The noise surrounding Kelce's and Jones' returns sees the Chiefs pegged as three-point road favorites for their trip to TIAA Bank Field. Will the defending champs secure a road win and cover to avoid going 0-2 straight up and against the spread in 2023?
For those looking to bet on Sunday's Jaguars-Chiefs contest, we'll give you all the information you need before placing a wager, including the updated odds from BetMGM, and our prediction for this Week 2 matchup.
Jaguars vs. Chiefs odds, spread, over/under
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- Spread: Chiefs -3 (-110); Jaguars +3 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 51 (-110); UNDER 51 (-110)
- Moneyline: Chiefs -160; Jaguars +135
The betting market's anticipating a Chiefs bounce back, pricing them as short three-point road favorites with a moneyline price of -160 (implied win probability: 61.45 percent). Although Kansas City hasn't been profitable ATS since 2020 (27-33 ATS), betting on the Chiefs when the spread is between +3 and -3 in the Andy Reid era is profitable. According to BetQL, "Andy Reid is 38-20 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3."
Regarding the over/under, Sunday's total is the highest over/under of the week at 51 points. Will we see a regression to the mean after UNDERs went 12-4 in Week 1?
Should you bet the Chiefs against the spread?
Despite Reid faring well ATS in games priced with short spreads, we recommend taking the three points and backing Jacksonville on the spread. Jacksonville has enough offensive firepower to go score for score with the Chiefs, but its defensive effort could be the determining factor on Sunday.
Jacksonville's defense currently ranks fourth in EPA/play (-0.336), while Kansas City sits 24th in (0.026), as Mike Caldwell's defense did its part in Week 1. Per PFF, EPA (expected points added) is defined as, "a measure of success which defines the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense's likelihood to score." Kansas City's defense started strong but wore down as the game progressed. Jones' return is a much-needed boost for a Chiefs defense that ended Week 1 with PFF's 23rd-best pass rush grade (60.0)
Additionally, while it's only been one week, the Jaguars own a superior opponent red-zone scoring percentage (TDs only) of 33.33 percent compared to the Chiefs' opponent red-zone scoring rate of 66.67 percent. In a projected one-score game, the difference between wins and losses can boil down to the better red-zone defense, and right now, the Jaguars have the edge.
Our pick: Jaguars +3 (-110)
Final score prediction: Jaguars 28, Chiefs 27
Should you bet the Jaguars vs. Chiefs over or under?
Even though plenty of points are expected in this one, you should bet the OVER 51 on Sunday afternoon. Both Lawrence and Mahomes sit within the top half of the league in QB success rate through one week, with Lawrence owning the second-highest success rate (56.1%) and Mahomes ranking 13th (45.8%). Had the Chiefs not had several untimely drops in Week 1, there's a good chance Mahomes sports a top-10 success rate.
Kelce's presence undoubtedly helps the Chiefs extend drives as Mahomes' go-to option on third downs, aiding OVER 51 backers' chances of cashing their tickets.
Our pick: OVER 51 (-110)
Best Jaguars vs. Chiefs prop bet via SuperDraft
Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley OVER 72.5 receiving yards
Ridley's OVER receiving yards will be a popular bet on SuperDraft, but for good reason. Jacksonville's new WR1 drew 11 targets on 34 routes run, taking advantage of a subpar Colts' secondary.
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Although Chiefs' defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo figures to key in on limiting Ridley's effectiveness, in a game we think goes OVER the total of 51 points, Ridley's likely to again see double-digit targets.
