Texans' life after J.J. Watt could come sooner rather than later

He is a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year award winner who averaged 17 sacks per season from 2012 to '15. Injuries limited him to only eight games and 1.5 sacks over the last two years, a span in which he cost his team $29 million against the salary cap. He has been a pillar of his community, raising millions for charity.

J.J. Watt is the only player in NFL history who fits the above description, and there's no doubt it pains the defensive end to ponder his recent on-field plight and wonder how long the Texans will continue to pay him superstar money if he can't regain his All-Pro form.

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Questioning the future of Watt is sacrilege in Houston. He is a hero in the city for his phenomenal work in leading the charge to raise more than $37 million for Hurricane Harvey relief, not to mention his charity work for children through his foundation. He is the reigning Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year. And despite the injury issues, he is revered for the on-field tenacity that led to four Pro Bowl selections in his first five seasons while helping the Texans to three AFC South titles over that period. Watt's pleasant demeanor also means his likability factor is high.

But for Texans coach Bill O'Brien and new general manager Brian Gaine, the beloved Watt could soon be quite the conundrum; the latest to be asked the question no player wants to hear.

"What have you done for me lately?"

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Watt has four years remaining on the six-year, $100 million contract he signed in 2014 — it was extended by two seasons for cap reasons — but the guaranteed money came in the early years. Watt is scheduled to earn $11 million this year and $13 million in 2019. His base salaries then jump again in 2020 and 2021 to $15.5 million and $17.5 million, respectively.

The Texans could cut or trade him this year and have a dead money hit of $6 million with cap savings of $9 million. Next year, the dead money drops to just $2 million with cap savings of $13 million if they release or trade him. The Texans will weigh these numbers against Watt's production, leadership and popularity.

Watt currently is completing rehab on the broken leg he suffered in Week 5 of last season. He had 15 tackles and no sacks in those five games following a 2016 season in which he played in only three games due to back surgery to repair a herniated disk. It was his second back surgery in a two-month period after he missed training camp following the first surgery.

O'Brien recently said Watt is ahead of schedule in his rehab, and Watt has said he won't rush back for OTAs if he's not ready but expects to be fully recovered and on the field at training camp.

I understand the concern Gaine and O'Brien must have regarding Watt's future. They would love to have the Watt of 2012 and ’14; the player who had 20.5 sacks in each of those seasons. They dream of the dominant defensive end/outside linebacker duo they would keep if Watt could get back to top form and be paired with Jadeveon Clowney, the first overall draft pick in 2014 who finally has emerged as a Pro Bowler. Add a fine defender in Whitney Mercilus, who also is coming off a season-ending injury, and the prospects are frightening to opposing offensive lines.

Clowney's contract status, though, could have an impact on the Watt decision. Clowney is entering his option year and could be in Von Miller's $19 million-per-year neighborhood or more starting in 2019. The Texans are fortunate to have their franchise quarterback in Deshaun Watson under a relatively low contract for the next three years, so they likely can afford to pay both Watt and Clowney big bucks, but probably not Mercilus.

Will they want to go that route despite Watt's recent injury history?

It's definitely a precarious position for Gaine and O'Brien. If Watt doesn't return to top form, they're then dealing with a descending player. And deciding to cut ties with a player who has been the face of the franchise for seven years is one of the toughest moves a GM or coach ever has to make. I can empathize with them after doing this difficult task several times during my NFL management career.

I believe the Texans' brass will keep Watt this season and give him an opportunity to return to top form. They'll let it play out and then take stock of the situation. They'll be well aware that his salary will jump in 2019, and the dead money then will be less of a factor.

That's when another scenario could unfold if Watt is healthy enough in 2018 to stay on the field for 16 games (or close to it) but does not return to dominance. It would involve the difficult task for Gaine to approach Watt and ask the player to accept a restructured contract with a pay cut.

I occasionally did this with descending players who still had value to the team in their playing abilities and leadership skills but whose contracts needed to be adjusted. Hitting a veteran player and his agent with this option was tough, as prideful vets typically don't want to face their teammates after taking pay cuts. Word always gets out quickly.

In this situation, I would try to convince the player and his agent that we would pay him more than he would receive if he were to be cut and picked up by a new team. I would offer incentives to give the player opportunities to recoup most or all of the lost salary. I'd also say that if he rejected the pay cut and opted to be traded (which would likely require a restructured contract) or released, he then would have to learn a new system and move away from the city in which he has established roots and maintains close ties to the community. This could be the approach Gaine takes with Watt.

However, pride gets in the way, and a player often makes the unwise decision to play elsewhere for less money, refusing to take a pay cut with incentives from his current team.

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Gaine and O'Brien have witnessed Watt's ups and downs up close over the past four seasons (with Gaine having gone to Buffalo for just one of those years). They know Watt was an outstanding player at his peak, and they know what a terrific story it will be if such a great guy in the community becomes the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year.

I'm not counting Watt out, but realistically, it's hard to see him being that 20-sack guy again. Gaine and O'Brien likely have the same fear.

While they're hoping for the best, they will be pleasantly surprised if it happens. And if not, it sets in motion a series of events that could be painful to endure for this popular player, his team and the Texans fan base.

Jeff Diamond is a former president of the Titans and former vice president/general manager of the Vikings. He was selected NFL Executive of the Year in 1998. Diamond is currently a business and sports consultant who also does broadcast and online media work. He makes speaking appearances to corporate/civic groups and college classes on Negotiation and Sports Business/Sports Management. He is the former chairman and CEO of The Ingram Group. Follow Jeff on Twitter: @jeffdiamondNFL.