Following two straight regular-season sweeps, the Cowboys (-3) aim to maintain their dominance over the Giants with a road win and cover in Week 1 on Sunday Night Football (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC). That last time we saw the Cowboys on the field in a game that mattered, Dallas got bounced by the 49ers in the playoffs for a second straight year, falling 19-12 in the Divisional Round. Expectations remain sky-high for America's Team, as Mike McCarthy's crew attempts to not only return to the postseason, but also extend their season into February.
Although Dallas has claimed 11 of its past 12 meetings against New York, going into MetLife Stadium and notching a road win over the upstart Giants in Week 1 is no easy task. The G-Men significantly exceeded expectations in Brian Daboll's first season as head coach, reaching the Divisional Round, where the eventual NFC Champion Eagles ultimately outmatched them. Daboll's bunch is hungry to build off last season, and securing a home win in prime time over their division rival is the ideal stepping stone.
For those looking to bet on Sunday night's NFC East clash, we'll give you all the information you need before placing a wager on Giants-Cowboys, including the updated odds from BetMGM, and our prediction for this Week 1 matchup.
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Cowboys vs. Giants odds, spread, over/under
- Spread: Cowboys -3 (-115); Giants +3 (-105)
- Over/Under: OVER 46.5 (-110); UNDER 46.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Cowboys -175; Giants +145
It's no surprise to see Dallas listed as short road favorites in this matchup, as the Cowboys' track record against the Giants, coupled with their habitual preseason hype, results in a three-point spread in Week 1. Along with winning 11 of their past 12 meeting against New York, Dallas has been a profitable against-the-spread bet, covering nine of those 12 games. However, Dallas went 1-1 ATS against New York in 2022.
They won outright as 1.5-point road underdogs in Week 3 (23-16) in a game where backup QB Cooper Rush started with Dak Prescott recovering from a thumb fracture. Dallas later failed to cover as 10-point home favorites on Thanksgiving in Week 12 (28-20).
Regarding the total, seven of the past nine meetings between these teams have gone OVER the closing total, with both of their '22 bouts going OVER. Sunday night's over/under (46.5) is the highest total in their past four meetings, so the betting market's corrected itself.
Should you bet the Cowboys against the spread?
Although Dallas' spread might be a point or two inflated with the "Cowboys' tax" baked in, we expect the Cowboys to win in the trenches and on the outside on both offense and defense. We're worried about the Giants' pass defense with two rookie cornerbacks (Deonte Banks and Tre Hawkins III) making their regular season debuts against a well-rounded Cowboys receiving corps.
New York's defense ranked in the bottom half of the league in dropback EPA last season (0.048; 20th), and there's a chance their coverage unit is again susceptible through the air with two young corners. Under new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, look for Dallas to rely on their newly appointed RB1 Tony Pollard early and often to set up downfield shots off play-action.
On the other side of the ball, we're worried about the Giants' receiving corps consistently winning their battles versus a sound Cowboys pass defense, especially when the Giants could struggle to move the ball on the ground against a stout Cowboys' run defense. All that leads us to believe the Cowboys secure a four-plus point road victory on Sunday Night Football.
Our pick: Cowboys -3 (-110)
Should you bet the Cowboys' moneyline?
While you'll have to risk more to yield the same payout as betting the Cowboys spread, if you're worried about Dallas' ability to gain margin on the Giants, betting the Cowboys on the moneyline is a "safer" route.
It's worth noting that Week 1 hasn't been friendly to the Cowboys over the past half-decade, as Dallas is 1-4 straight up in their regular-season opener and riding a three-game losing streak. The past is the past, and each game and season is its own entity. Dallas closed as underdogs in their past two season openers against Tampa Bay, so the betting market wasn't expecting them to start 1-0 anyway. In 2020, they closed as a pick 'em (-110 juice on both sides) on the road against the Rams, as that game was projected as a toss-up. This year feels different.
We recommend bypassing the moneyline and betting the Cowboys against the spread. If you want to divvy up your stake with a spread (-3) and moneyline (-175) bet, that works, too.
Our pick: Cowboys moneyline (-175), but laying the three points is a wiser bet in our minds.
Should you bet the Cowboys vs. Giants over or under?
Although seven of their nine head-to-head meetings have gone OVER, you should bet the UNDER 46.5 (-110) on Sunday night. We're not sure the Giants' offense holds up their end of the bargain, therefore making the OVER a rather risky play.
Additionally, the Cowboys' likely reliance on the ground game could result in several lengthy drives, resulting in Sunday night's matchup going UNDER the total.
Our pick: UNDER 46.5 (-110)
Best Cowboys vs. Giants prop bet via SuperDraft
Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb OVER 6 receptions
Lamb saw 22 targets in two games against the Giants last season, and his reliable usage (28.7 percent target share in '22) puts him in a favorable spot to total seven-plus catches. He's likely to match up against Adoree' Jackson in the slot, a matchup Lamb took advantage of last season. In their Week 3 tilt, Lamb caught six-of-seven targets for 57 yards and a TD when defended by Jackson, a good sign in his prospects of going OVER this number.
Looking for more Cowboys-Giants player prop picks? Check out our favorite SuperDraft player props for Sunday night's matchup.
