Finding 2018 fantasy football sleepers, busts with quarterback consistency ratings

Bob Lung

Finding 2018 fantasy football sleepers, busts with quarterback consistency ratings image

Consistency is one of the most important aspects of fantasy football, yet very few fantasy football owners use this tool to aid in their draft strategies, rankings, cheat sheets, and start 'em/sit 'em decisions.

In fantasy, there's nothing more frustrating than a player going off for big points one week and putting up next-to-nothing the following week when you were really relying on him. How many times have you been one of the highest scoring teams but don't have the wins to back it up? Some say this is simply bad luck, and that is partially true. Variables like injuries to key players, bad weather, and other factors, negatively impact fantasy teams and are uncontrollable. However, you can make an effort to limit the volatility of your players.

The more consistent a player is, the better they ultimately are for your fantasy team. But how do you determine consistency? Over at BigGuyFantasySports.com, I have developed "Clutch Factor" -- a way to measure a player's consistency level. "Clutch Factor" is based on the number of teams in your league and the scoring method. So, for instance, in a 12-team PPR format, a running back must earn over 11 fantasy points each week to earn a "Clutch Game". A highly consistent player will have a "Clutch Rating" (CR) of 70 percent or more. The best fantasy contributors will normally be over 80 percent.

DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2018 fantasy football cheat sheet

Using my "Clutch Ratings", I have found players who may not be highly ranked in total fantasy points but are consistent and can be keys to the success of your fantasy team. These types of players are often undervalued on draft day. Likewise, you can use the "CR" to spot overvalued players based on their lack of consistency. Let’s take a look at my top-12 QB projections and who my most consistent -- and therefore, undervalued -- and least consistent -- and therefore, overvalued -- quarterbacks are for 2018.

Fantasy Football Consistency Rankings: Quarterbacks

1. QB1A Aaron Rodgers, Packers

2. QB1A Deshaun Watson, Texans

3. QB1A Carson Wentz, Eagles

4. QB1B Kirk Cousins, Vikings

5. QB1B Tom Brady, Patriots

6. QB1B Russell Wilson, Seahawks

7. QB1B Drew Brees, Saints

8. QB1B Andrew Luck, Colts

9. QB1B Matthew Stafford, Lions

10. QB1B Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers

11. QB1B Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers

12. QB1B Cam Newton, Panthers

2018 RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back Wide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker | Top 200 | PPR

A ranking of QB1A means I expect these QBs to earn an 80 percent or higher Clutch Rating in 2018. As you can see, only Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson and Carson Wentz are ranked at that level. The remaining nine quarterbacks are all ranked as QB1B, meaning they should exceed 70 percent or higher and score around 19.7 to 22.7 fantasy points per week, depending on whether your league has four-point or six-point passing TDs. The higher ranked quarterbacks on this list, like Kirk Cousins, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson, are expected to earn much higher than 70 percent, but they seem unlikely to hit the 80 percent mark. The lower ranked quarterbacks certainly could exceed the 70 percent CR, but it's less probable.

MORE CONSISTENCY RATINGS:
Runing back | Wide receiver | Tight end

A couple of these quarterbacks aren't being properly valued, so here's a look at what their ADPs are so you can either target them or avoid them.

Undervalued: Matthew Stafford, Lions

Stafford was the No. 1 quarterback in terms of consistency among QBs who played at least 10 games last year with a 75 percent CR. Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson were higher with only seven games played each. With Detroit's continued marginal running game and great receiving corps in Golden Tate and Marvin Jones, Jr., Stafford's consistency should remain intact. His current ADP is QB10/pick 100. That’s a great value if you like to wait on quarterbacks.

Overvalued: Cam Newton, Panthers

Every year, Newton falls into this category. Last year was his worst year for consistency, which is especially bad considering he ended the year ranked third in total fantasy points. His Clutch Rating was only 44 percent, which ranked him 26th. I honestly almost left him out of the Top 12 rankings above. Please don’t draft him based on the name and the past. Let someone else have him.

MORE: Consistency reports at Big Guy Fantasy Sports

If you want more Consistency in your Draft Prep, you can buy the 2018 Fantasy Football Consistency Guide on Amazon or on the BigGuyFantasySports.com website.

Consistency matters and should be part of your fantasy draft strategy every year. While total points are certainly important, consistent scoring is key for grinding out wins on a weekly basis -- which is key for getting to the playoffs and potentially winning a championship.

Bob Lung

Bob Lung Photo

Bob Lung is a fantasy sports contributor for The Sporting News.