Fresh off their first loss of the season, the Eagles (-2) look to get back in the win column, hosting the high-flying Dolphins on Sunday Night Football (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC). The Eagles had ample opportunities to gain margin and put away the Jets in a 20-14 loss last week, but untimely turnovers and a missed field goal ultimately doomed them. Meanwhile, the Dolphins continued to beat up on inferior competition, crawling out of an early 14-0 hole to cruise past the Panthers, 42-21.
It's rare to win games and stay competitive in today's NFL when a team commits four more turnovers than its opponent, but the Eagles managed to stay within striking distance despite several miscues. The only touchdown the Eagles' defense allowed last week came after Jalen Hurts' third interception, a drive that started inside the Eagles 10-yard line. Taking a glass-half-full approach, we think it's better to lose games based on self-inflicted mistakes, as that's within your control, rather than losing due to getting out-muscled by your opponent.
That said, should the Eagles lose the turnover battle again, Sunday Night's contest could be one-sided. Slowing down a Dolphins offense that leads the league in EPA per play (0.251) and success rate (53.8%) is no easy task. Tua Tagovailoa has been nearly flawless in his second season running Mike McDaniel's offense, leading all qualified QBs in passer rating while sitting atop the MVP odds board.
Can the Eagles slow down the surging Dolphins, or will Miami prove it's a legit Super Bowl contender? Below, we'll give you all the information you need before placing a wager on Eagles-Dolphins, including the updated odds from BetMGM, and our predictions for this Week 7 matchup.
Eagles vs. Dolphins odds, spread, over/under
Spread: Eagles -2 (-110) | Dolphins +2 (-110)
Total: OVER 52 (-110) | UNDER 52 (-110)
Moneyline: Eagles -130 | Dolphins +110
Despite failing to meet expectations relative to the betting market, losing outright as seven-point road favorites last week, the Eagles still hold strong as two-point home favorites on SNF. There's a chance an influx of public money coming in on the Dolphins closer to kickoff, potentially leading to the Eagles closing closer to -1 (-110). However, one result in a parity-filled NFL shouldn't sway your feelings too much about a team, so it makes sense that the Eagles are still priced as the home favorites.
Given how efficient the Dolphins offense is, it's no surprise to see the total in the low 50s. Philadelphia's offense hasn't been nearly as efficient as last season, but it still ranks within the top 10 in EPA per play (0.049) and success rate (46.9%). Bettors should be in for a treat to cap off their Sunday.
Should you bet the Eagles against the spread?
Although Philadelphia looked shaky in its Week 6 road loss, we're backing the home favorites to get the job done at -2 (-110). We're not too worried about the Eagles despite their underwhelming performance against the Jets. It's unlikely Philadelphia has another four-turnover game, and even when they were -4 in turnover margin, they were still in position to win at the end.
The one data point that still sticks in our minds for the Dolphins was their 48-20 loss to the Bills, the lone time they faced a team whose record is above .500.
Sunday night's game likely comes down to how the Dolphins' offensive line holds up in pass protection. Yes, Tagovailoa's getting rid of the ball quickly to negate the opposing team's pass rush, but if the Dolphins want to generate explosive plays through the air, he will need to let the play develop.
That could lead to an Eagles defense that leads the league in QB pressures (77) despite blitzing at the 16th-highest clip (24.9%) to get Tagovailoa under duress, playing into the Eagles' hands.
Tagovailoa's an entirely different QB under pressure this season, completing just 40.5 percent of his passes (15-of-37), good for a passer rating of 48.9. While they could be susceptible up the seams, an Eagles defense that plays a good deal of Cover 3 could force Tagovailoa to dink and dunk his way down the field, especially if they can limit the Dolphins' ground game. It only takes one miscommunication on the backend for Tyreek Hill to burn you, but James Bradberry's up for the task of shadowing one of the league's most dynamic wideouts.
Saying it is one thing, but going out there and keeping the league's most efficient offense in check is another. That said, an Eagles defense that will likely get CB Darius Slay and DT Jalen Carter back this week can do just enough to throw the Dolphins off their groove.
On the other side of the ball, we think A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith should be able to win consistently against cornerbacks Eli Apple and Xavier Howard, two CBs that grade out toward the bottom of the league per Pro Football Focus. We also think the Eagles' offensive line holds up well enough in pass protection to allow Philadelphia to hit on some explosives.
Our Pick: Eagles -2 (-110)
Should you bet the Eagles vs. Dolphins OVER?
Even when matched up against an Eagles defensive line that has the potential to throw Tua off his game, the Dolphins offense is too elite to get shut down. The constant threat of an explosive play, both via the run and pass, makes it tough to stomach betting the UNDER here. Philadelphia's own ability to hit on explosive plays leads us to bet the OVER 52 (-110).
Our Pick: OVER 52 (-110)
Final score prediction: Eagles 30, Dolphins 27
Best Eagles vs. Dolphins prop bet via SuperDraft
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins — UNDER 282.5 passing yards
It's never easy to bet the MVP co-favorite to go UNDER his passing yardage prop, but we think the Eagles' defense will force Tagovailoa to dink and dunk his way down the field. While game script plays a role in Miami's pass play rates, the Dolphins enter Week 7 passing on just 55.08 percent of plays, good for 25th in the league.
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A high number of running plays coupled with the Dolphins having to manufacture lengthy drives leads us to bet on Tagovailoa's UNDER on SNF. The likelihood of 20-plus-mph winds doesn't figure to help either.
