What makes a safe pick?
That's always a subjective argument, and that hasn't changed heading into the 2023 NFL Draft – which runs April 27-29 in Kansas City. The college football season and 2023 NFL Combine offered clues, but the analysis leading up to the draft can find flaws with almost every prospect.
That holds true with the quarterbacks. Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis all are expected to be first-round picks, but are they safe long-term franchise quarterbacks? That is debatable.
Alabama's Will Anderson leads our eight safe picks. The two-time Sporting News All-American dominated at Alabama, performed well at the combine and should be a top-five pick no matter how the quarterback shuffle unfolds.
We did well identifying those picks last year, which ranged from Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner, who won the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year awards this season.
Who are the eight safe picks for the 2023 NFL Draft? Here is a closer look:
MORE NFL DRAFT: TSN's 7-round mock | Top 140 big board
Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama
- Ranked No. 3 overall on SN's big board
Don't overcomplicate it. Anderson totaled 34.5 sacks and 58.5 tackles for loss and was considered the best defensive player in college football the last two seasons. The two-time Consensus All-American ran a 4.60 at the 2023 NFL Combine. He has drawn comparisons to DeMarcus Ware - who was 15 pounds heavier but totaled 138.5 sacks in 12 seasons. Anderson will fall a few picks because of the quarterback rush, but he could easily turn out to be the best player in this draft.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
- Ranked No. 6 overall on SN's big board
Robinson is the most-complete running back in the draft. He averaged 6.3 yards per carry. He had 20 catches per game. He was not overused at Texas, and he the 5-foot-11, 215-pound back ran a 4.46 in the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. The premium on first-round backs is high, and Robinson has drawn enough comparisons to Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey to join that weight class. It's always nice when a five-star running back delivers in college. Robinson is an ideal luxury pick that should land with a contender.
Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
- Ranked No. 7 overall on SN's big board
The 2023 features depth at tight end with other potential first-round picks such as Utah's Dalton Kincaid and Georgia's Darnell Washington. Mayer is the classic in-line tight end prospect, and you just have to trust the production. Mayer had 67 catches on 101 targets last season, and he averaged 69 catches and 820 yards the last two years. Mayer also had the third-best run-block percentage among tight ends last season, according to Pro Football Focus. He's a throw-back classic that will have a productive NFL career.
Peter Skoronski, T, Northwestern
- Ranked No. 7 overall on SN's big board
Skoronski was the top rated pass blocking tackle in 2022 according to PFF. He gave up three sacks the last two seasons for the Wildcats, and at 6-foot-4, 313 pounds he displayed both strength (30 on bench press) and athleticism (34.5-inch vertical) at the NFL Combine. Skoronski might slide down to guard in the NFL, but that versatility to play multiple positions makes him an easy pick in the first round – perhaps even top 10.
Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
- Ranked No. 11 overall on SN's big board
Wilson is this year's version of Travon Walker. Pro Football tracks PRP, a formula that combines sacks, hits and hurries based on the number of pass rushes. Wilson – a 6-6, 271-pound edge rusher – ranked fifth in the FBS with a score of 12. That's higher than Anderson at 11.2. Wilson isn't a one-year wonder either. He had seven sacks each of the last two seasons, and he totaled 27.5 tackles for loss. While there is a perception Wilson could be a boom-or-bust prospect, we think it's safe to trust that combination of athleticism and production.
Brian Branch, S, Alabama
- Ranked No. 12 overall on SN's big board
Branch can play near the line of scrimmage – he totaled 90 tackles, 14 tackles for loss and three sacks in 2022. He also had two interceptions. Branch is 6-foot and 190 pounds. He didn't wow at the NFL Combine, but he didn't have to. Branch would be the 10th safety that Nick Saban has sent to the NFL since coming to Alabama, and that list includes first-round picks such as Mark Barron, Ha-Ha Clinton Dix and Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
- Ranked No. 24 overall on SN's big board
Trust the talent. Smith-Njigba missed most of last season with a hamstring injury, but he answered questions at his Pro Day by running a 4.48 in the 40-yard dash. He's an elite route runner who had a 84.8% catch percentage as a sophomore. Smith-Njigba is the next first-round talent off the Ohio State wide receiver factory, and he could put up comparable numbers as college teammates Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave right away.
Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt
- Ranked No. 47 overall on SN's big board
Kancey – a Miami native – is a 6-foot-1, 280-pound defensive tackle whose measurements are almost identical to Pro Football Hall of Fame defensive tackle Warren Sapp. Kancey put on a show at the NFL Combine and ran a 4.67 in the 40-yard dash. He was a consistent producer for the Panthers the last two seasons with 14.5 sacks and 27.5 tackles for loss. He had the third-highest pass rushing grade (92.4) in college last season, according to Pro Football Focus. That blend of skills from an interior defender is hard to find.
