The Dolphins have already clinched a spot in the 2024 NFL Playoffs but that doesn't mean they have nothing to play for in the final week of the season.
Miami is set to host the Bills in a primetime matchup on "Sunday Night Football" with the AFC East crown on the line. It has led the division for the majority of the season but after losing two of its last four games while Buffalo rattled off a four-game win streak, the AFC East will be up for grabs in Week 18.
The result of this showdown isn't nearly as drastic for the Dolphins as it is for the Bills, but a loss would cough up home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs. For Buffalo, a loss could mean it is eliminated from the postseason altogether.
How will things shake out for the Dolphins in Week 18? The Sporting News takes a look at their potential seeding scenarios below.
LIVE: Updated NFL standings, playoff scenarios for Week 18
Dolphins playoff picture for Week 18
The AFC playoff picture is unique heading into Week 18 in that the No. 1 (Ravens), No. 3 (Chiefs) and No. 5 (Browns) seeds are already locked in. That leaves the No. 2 seed for the AFC East winner and the No. 4 seed for the AFC South winner, as well as the two final AFC Wild Card spots.
The Ravens clinched the AFC North, the best record in the conference and the first-round bye. The Chiefs clinched the AFC West and with the way tiebreakers shake out, they can't surpass the winner of the AFC East for the No. 2 seed. The Browns fell second to Baltimore in the AFC North but own the proper tiebreakers to stand pat as the No. 5 seed regardless of what happens between the Dolphins and Bills.
How Dolphins would clinch No. 2 seed
The Dolphins (11-5) enter Week 18 with a one-game lead over the Bills (10-6). Because Buffalo defeated Miami back in Week 4, it owns the tiebreaker if they finish with the same record.
As a result, the AFC East division title will go to the winner of this head-to-head matchup on "Sunday Night Football."
So, this scenario is simple: the Dolphins clinch the No. 2 seed and home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs with a win over the Bills in Week 18.
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How Dolphins would clinch No. 6 seed
That also paints a clear picture for Miami in the event of a loss.
If the Dolphins lose to the Bills, they will be the No. 6 seed in the AFC and travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in the first round of the playoffs.
Dolphins potential playoff opponents
Since the Dolphins can only be the No. 2 or No. 6 seed, their list of potential playoff opponents is not very long.
Potential No. 2 seed opponents
- Steelers
- Bills
- Jaguars
If the Dolphins defeat the Bills on Sunday, it will guarantee a first-round matchup at home against either Pittsburgh, Buffalo or Jacksonville because of the way tiebreakers shake out.
Since both the Steelers and Jaguars play before the Dolphins-Bills Sunday night game, the winner of the AFC East will already know its opponent once the clock hits triple zeros.
No. 6 seed opponent
As mentioned above, if the Dolphins lose to the Bills, it will set them up for a road game in Arrowhead Stadium against the Chiefs in the first round of the playoffs.
Kansas City defeated Miami in Germany back in Week 9, 21-14. The Chiefs raced out to a 21-0 lead by halftime but the Dolphins came clawing back in the second half, only to see their comeback come up one touchdown short.
Fans would be in for a potential shootout between Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa on Wild Card weekend. This would also be an intriguing Tyreek Hill revenge game.
