The Jets will host the Dolphins in the NFL's first-ever "Black Friday" game (3:00 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video) on the day after Thanksgiving as part of the Week 12 regular-season schedule. The Jets (4-6) come in reeling as the third-place team in the AFC East, as they sit behind the Dolphins (7-3) by a full three games.
The Dolphins are huge road favorites after not covering vs. the Raiders at home with a similar number last week. The Jets have fallen apart during their three-game losing streak, especially offensively, prompting a QB change from Zach Wilson to backup Tim Boyle.
Here's breaking what to expect when Miami and New York meet for the first of two times this season on Friday:
Dolphins vs. Jets odds, spread, over/under
(All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
Spread: Dolphins -10 (-110) | Jets +10 (-110)
Over/Under: OVER 41.5 (-110) | UNDER 41.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Dolphins -480 | Jets +360
The Dolphins' double-digit love comes despite not delivering vs. the scrappier Raiders last week at home. The Jets have just looked awful of late, hitting a new low point in their Week 11 blowout loss to the Bills. The total reflects the Jets' defensive strength and their offensive limitations with Tim Boyle under center.
MORE BLACK FRIDAY FOOTBALL BETTING: Best prop picks
Should you bet the Dolphins against the spread vs. Jets?
The Jets' season is on the line here, and Boyle, the one guy who knows Nathaniel Hackett's offense best after Aaron Rodgers, will provide a bit of a spark. They're at home on a short week and will come out fired up defensively for coach Robert Saleh after breaking down vs. the Bills.
The Jets can hang around by making this an ugly battle of attrition -- grinding with the running game and tightening up in the red zone to hold the Dolphins to multiple field-goal attempts.
Our Pick: Jets +10 (-110)
Should you bet the Jets on the moneyline vs. the Dolphins?
Let's not get crazy here. The Jets won't find too many sources of offense against an improving Dolphins defense that's good against the run and has Jalen Ramsey to contain Garrett Wilson. New York can stay in the game with its pass defense, but it will likely lose the overall battles on the ground and special teams.
Our Pick: Dolphins (-480)
Should you bet the Dolphins-Jets OVER?
For the reasons outlined above and given the short week, it is very difficult to see a shootout happening. It should be a hard-fought, physical game with Tua Tagovailoa making it closer than expected with mistakes and turnovers, but the Jets simply don't have enough firepower around Boyle.
Our Pick: UNDER 41.5 (-110)
Final score prediction: Dolphins 23, Jets 16
