The biggest test of John Elway's general manager career is about to take place. The question he must ace is whether he can solve the Broncos’ two-year problem at quarterback and finally identify the legitimate franchise leader that has not been in place since Peyton Manning retired.
The assumption in Denver always was that this would never be a problem for the Broncos with their Hall of Fame, two-time Super Bowl-winning former quarterback at the player personnel helm. If anyone knew how important an elite quarterback is to achieving NFL success, it would be Elway.
With Manning in house after Elway's great recruiting job in 2012, the team went on a dominant run with four straight AFC West titles, two Super Bowl appearances and a win in Super Bowl 50. Without Manning, the Broncos descended to also-ran status at 9-7 in 2016 before their free-fall to last place in the division at 5-11 last season.
Suffice it to say that the bloom is now off the Elway rose in Denver — at least in terms of his management prowess — and the heat is on for him to bring in new blood at the game's most important position … and get it right this time.
Elway admitted as much in his season-ending press conference last month, when he said, "There is no doubt we've got to get better at that position."
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Denver’s biggest problem last season was a QB trio of Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch that combined to post a 73.0 rating, second-worst in the NFL to the quarterback-clueless Browns. The trio also threw 22 interceptions, second-most in the league.
Lynch has been a major disappointment over his first two seasons after Elway traded up to draft him in the first round. The big signal caller could not beat out Siemian in his rookie season and battled injuries and inconsistency in Year 2. The dreaded bust word is in play, as Lynch has not shown enough promise to engender confidence that he was worthy of such a high pick.
That in turn has made the Denver faithful concerned about where Elway goes next.
Does Elway try to make a splash in free agency when the new league year begins March 14? Drew Brees, at 39, is still elite but unlikely to leave New Orleans. Kirk Cousins is the next best if we discount Minnesota's trio of free-agent quarterbacks due to injury concerns with Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater, plus the lack of long-term success by Case Keenum, even after his excellent 2017 season.
There are multiple reasons Elway likely will not go the more expensive, free-agent route. The Broncos reportedly don't have a lot of salary cap room — currently projected in the $25 million range, but they can free up more cap room by cutting high-priced vets. It’s hard to see Elway paying out huge money to Cousins, who has one career playoff start in his six pro seasons.
Cousins is not short at 6-3, but at 202 pounds he's a lighter QB. It seems Elway prefers bigger quarterbacks; Manning played at 6-5, 230 pounds, and Lynch is a giant at 6-7, 245 pounds. Elway also might want a QB with a bigger arm than that of Cousins.
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Elway and the Broncos hold the fifth pick in the upcoming draft. Instead of giving Cousins a Jimmy Garoppolo-type deal at $27.5 million per year or more, the amount of money required to fight off other QB-needy teams such as the Jets and Browns, I see Elway identifying his future quarterback in a solid draft class. He can either pick one of the top guys at No. 5 or trade up to get his preferred QB.
Giving a rookie time to develop into a true franchise quarterback would require patience, but I think that's the approach Elway will take while also keeping Lynch in the mix. Lynch is still on his rookie deal, so he's a low-cost option.
And if it moving up doesn't work out for Denver due to the high cost established by the Jared Goff and Carson Wentz deals, Elway will have second and third choices he also covets as a potential franchise QB.
Size- and arm strength-wise, the top-rated quarterbacks who fit Elway's vision would seem to be Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and Josh Allen. All are in the range of 6-4 to 6-5. Baker Mayfield at 6-1 is an appealing playmaker but not in the big QB mold Elway seemingly prefers.
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Elway and his scouts also need to address an aging wide receiver corps with top targets Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders both 30 and with a lot of mileage. An infusion of youth is needed there, along with more talent at tight end and along the offensive line.
This is a challenging time for the Broncos and their GM, who were all spoiled by the great run from 2012 to '15. Now it's what-have-you-done-for-me-lately time in Denver.
A legendary QB-turned-GM's future employment could be dependent on his making the right calls over the next couple months, starting with quarterback.
Jeff Diamond is a former president of the Titans and former vice president/general manager of the Vikings. He was selected NFL Executive of the Year in 1998. Diamond is currently a business and sports consultant who also does broadcast and online media work. He makes speaking appearances to corporate/civic groups and college classes on Negotiation and Sports Business/Sports Management. He is the former chairman and CEO of The Ingram Group. Follow Jeff on Twitter: @jeffdiamondNFL.
