Giants quarterback Daniel Jones' contract will be one of the most curious cases of the 2023 NFL offseason.
Jones is throwing to one of the worst groups in the NFL, the Giants have already declined his fifth-year option (although the franchise tag is an option), and yet, somehow, he and the Giants have made it to the divisional round of the NFC playoffs against the top-seeded Eagles.
Furthermore, first-year coach Brian Daboll unlocked a new gear for Jones in the wild-card round against the Vikings, drawing up 11 designed runs for him (Jones also scrambled six times). He capitalized with 78 rushing yards (4.6 yards per carry). Jones has been effective in the running game all year, but Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka have leveraged that effectiveness better as the season has gone on.
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With that being said, this is but one year of four in Jones' NFL career. Will the Giants' 9-7-1 record be a springboard or a plateau? That's the question the Giants will be forced to ask themselves as they negotiate with Jones.
Daniel Jones contract projection
First things first: Jones isn't going to get top dollar. This won't be a Patrick Mahomes- or Aaron Rodgers-level deal.
The real question is if he'll have enough clout in negotiations to push for an extension that rivals the second or third tiers. There's a good chance even that will be a reach.
NFL quarterbacks make an average of $32 million per year, if rookie deals are excluded. Jones might find that number difficult to obtain as it's skewed by the top six, who are all making $43 million-plus. The likely outcome is the Giants will try to sign Jones to a short-term deal of two to three years and build around him. Saquon Barkley is there, but Jones needs better receivers.
Something in the $20 million-to-$30 million range should be feasible following the Giants' playoff win in Minnesota. If the Giants are to extend Jones, the two-to-three-year range is reasonable. But if a team swoops in with, say, a four-year offer of $100 million, the Giants could find themselves outbid.
The exclusive franchise tag for QBs this season is projected to be around $45 million, while the non-exclusive tag is projected to be $32 million — too steep for a short-term "wait-and-see" deal.
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Daniel Jones stats
While many Giants fans would love to see Jones locked up for a longer term, the reality is teams have to be wary of contract-year breakouts. Here's a look at Jones' stats by season.
| Year | GP | W-L-T | Comp | Att | Comp% | Yds | TD | Int | Rate | Sk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 13 | 3-9-0 | 284 | 459 | 61.9 | 3027 | 24 | 12 | 87.7 | 38 |
| 2020 | 14 | 5-9-0 | 280 | 448 | 62.5 | 2943 | 11 | 10 | 80.4 | 45 |
| 2021 | 11 | 4-7-0 | 232 | 361 | 64.3 | 2428 | 10 | 7 | 84.8 | 22 |
| 2022 | 16 | 9-6-1 | 317 | 472 | 67.2 | 3205 | 15 | 5 | 92.5 | 44 |
| TOTAL | 54 | 21-31-1 | 1113 | 1740 | 64.0 | 11603 | 60 | 34 | 86.5 | 149 |
Here are Jones' year-by-year rushing stats:
| Year | GP | Att | Yds | TD | Y/G | Rec TD | Fum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 13 | 45 | 279 | 2 | 21.5 | 0 | 19 |
| 2020 | 14 | 65 | 423 | 1 | 30.2 | 0 | 10 |
| 2021 | 11 | 62 | 298 | 2 | 27.1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2022 | 16 | 120 | 708 | 7 | 44.3 | 0 | 6 |
| Career | 54 | 292 | 1708 | 12 | 31.6 | 0 | 42 |
The yardage jump in 2022 is evident, although it must also be noted he finally played close to a full season, 16 out of 17 games.
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While Jones' improvement is encouraging, it's also scary for the Giants' front office. Ever since Joe Flacco got a six-year, $120.6 million deal from the Ravens after his historic 2013 playoff run, teams have been more hesitant to reward recent success.
Jones is still young (he'll be 26 in May), so there's time to figure him out. Although franchise-tagging a quarterback rarely makes financial sense for a team, it's not unreasonable for the Giants to want to see what they have in Jones without trying to sign him to a mega-deal.
