Daniel Jones contract projection: How much money will Giants QB make after major improvement?

Kevin Skiver

Daniel Jones contract projection: How much money will Giants QB make after major improvement? image

Giants quarterback Daniel Jones' contract will be one of the most curious cases of the 2023 NFL offseason.

Jones is throwing to one of the worst groups in the NFL, the Giants have already declined his fifth-year option (although the franchise tag is an option), and yet, somehow, he and the Giants have made it to the divisional round of the NFC playoffs against the top-seeded Eagles.

Furthermore, first-year coach Brian Daboll unlocked a new gear for Jones in the wild-card round against the Vikings, drawing up 11 designed runs for him (Jones also scrambled six times). He capitalized with 78 rushing yards (4.6 yards per carry). Jones has been effective in the running game all year, but Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka have leveraged that effectiveness better as the season has gone on.

MORE GIANTS-EAGLES:
Betting preview | Best props | DK lineup | FD lineup

With that being said, this is but one year of four in Jones' NFL career. Will the Giants' 9-7-1 record be a springboard or a plateau? That's the question the Giants will be forced to ask themselves as they negotiate with Jones.

Daniel Jones contract projection

First things first: Jones isn't going to get top dollar. This won't be a Patrick Mahomes- or Aaron Rodgers-level deal.

The real question is if he'll have enough clout in negotiations to push for an extension that rivals the second or third tiers. There's a good chance even that will be a reach.

NFL quarterbacks make an average of $32 million per year, if rookie deals are excluded. Jones might find that number difficult to obtain as it's skewed by the top six, who are all making $43 million-plus. The likely outcome is the Giants will try to sign Jones to a short-term deal of two to three years and build around him. Saquon Barkley is there, but Jones needs better receivers.

Something in the $20 million-to-$30 million range should be feasible following the Giants' playoff win in Minnesota. If the Giants are to extend Jones, the two-to-three-year range is reasonable. But if a team swoops in with, say, a four-year offer of $100 million, the Giants could find themselves outbid.

The exclusive franchise tag for QBs this season is projected to be around $45 million, while the non-exclusive tag is projected to be $32 million — too steep for a short-term "wait-and-see" deal.

MORE: What are the biggest upsets in NFL playoff history?

Daniel Jones stats

While many Giants fans would love to see Jones locked up for a longer term, the reality is teams have to be wary of contract-year breakouts. Here's a look at Jones' stats by season.

Year GP W-L-T Comp Att Comp% Yds TD Int Rate Sk
2019 13 3-9-0 284 459 61.9 3027 24 12 87.7 38
2020 14 5-9-0 280 448 62.5 2943 11 10 80.4 45
2021 11 4-7-0 232 361 64.3 2428 10 7 84.8 22
2022 16 9-6-1 317 472 67.2 3205 15 5 92.5 44
TOTAL 54 21-31-1 1113 1740 64.0 11603 60 34 86.5 149

 Here are Jones' year-by-year rushing stats:

Year GP Att Yds TD Y/G Rec TD Fum
2019 13 45 279 2 21.5 0 19
2020 14 65 423 1 30.2 0 10
2021 11 62 298 2 27.1 0 7
2022 16 120 708 7 44.3 0 6
Career 54 292 1708 12 31.6 0 42

The yardage jump in 2022 is evident, although it must also be noted he finally played close to a full season, 16 out of 17 games.

MORE: NFL playoff bracket 2023: Updated TV schedule, channels, scores

While Jones' improvement is encouraging, it's also scary for the Giants' front office. Ever since Joe Flacco got a six-year, $120.6 million deal from the Ravens after his historic 2013 playoff run, teams have been more hesitant to reward recent success.

Jones is still young (he'll be 26 in May), so there's time to figure him out. Although franchise-tagging a quarterback rarely makes financial sense for a team, it's not unreasonable for the Giants to want to see what they have in Jones without trying to sign him to a mega-deal.

Kevin Skiver

Kevin Skiver Photo

Kevin Skiver has been a content producer at Sporting News since 2021. He previously worked at CBS Sports as a trending topics writer, and now writes various pieces on MLB, the NFL, the NBA, and college sports. He enjoys hiking and eating, not necessarily in that order.