Could 2023 be the year of the Dallas Cowboys?
Despite owning a 6-3 record and sitting on the outside looking in to win the NFC East, the Cowboys are tied for fifth on the current NFL Super Bowl futures odds board (+1000).
The Cowboys' 6-3 against-the-spread record is tied for the third best cover rate in the league. Perhaps even more impressive, they're tied with the Ravens for the league's best cover margin covering the spread by an average of 6.3 points per game.
While getting back into the division race might be tough at this stage of the season, Dallas’ odds to make the playoffs are set at -4000 according to Caesars sportsbook, which translates to an implied probability of 97.56 percent.
With the odds overwhelmingly in their favor to make the postseason, should bettors consider placing a futures wager on the Cowboys to break their near three-decade-long drought by winning the NFC and lifting the Lombardi trophy?
Let’s take a look at the Cowboys’ updated futures prices, via Caesars Sportsbook.
Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds: To win NFC East (+430)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
With the odds stacked against the 6-3 Cowboys to win the division, we’d refrain from betting on them to win the NFC East, even at an intriguing +430 price tag. Much of that has to do with the fact that Tankathon gives them the eighth-toughest schedule down the stretch, with their most challenging games coming in Weeks 14-17.
That four-week stretch from Weeks 14-17 is a gauntlet (vs. Eagles, @ Bills, @ Dolphins, vs. Lions). While Dallas is going to close as decided favorites in the next three games (@ Panthers, vs. Commanders, vs. Seahawks), there's a real chance Dallas goes 2-2 or worse from Weeks 14-17.
The 8-1 Eagles are already in the driver’s seat to win the division, and Philadelphia has a substantially easier schedule to finish the season. Tankathon pits the Eagles with the ninth-easiest schedule to finish the season, so the Cowboys' +430 price to win the NFC East is justified. Sometimes, the best bets are the ones you don't make.
Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds: To win NFC Championship (+430)
While it’s an added bonus to finish the regular season with a top-two seed in the conference in order to avoid playing in the wild-card round, two of the past three NFC and Super Bowl winners ('20 Buccaneers, '21 Rams) entered the playoffs as wild cards since the NFL expanded the playoff field to 14 teams leading into the 2020-21 season.
With an NFC East division title looking bleak, there’s a good chance the Cowboys will play during wild-card weekend. However, just because Mike McCarthy‘s crew needs to win four games to snap their lengthy Super Bowl drought doesn’t mean they can’t take down one of the NFC‘s top two seeds on the road in order to do so.
If the season ended today, the Cowboys would enter the playoffs as the NFC's sixth seed, pitting them on the road against the 49ers in the opening round. Given how Dallas‘s past three games against San Francisco have gone, it would be a tough task to go into Levi's Stadium and take down the NFC's third seed, but fortunately, the season doesn’t end today.
Currently, the 6-3 Seahawks own the NFC’s fifth seed, a team that isn’t valued at the same level as Dallas in the betting market. Dallas faces Seattle at home in Week 13, a game Dallas will likely close as close to touchdown favorites, putting Dallas in a favorable spot to notch a home win.
Additionally, Tankathon pegs Seattle with the seventh-toughest remaining schedule, as the Seahawks have to play the Eagles, Steelers, and 49ers twice, along with their head-to-head bout in Dallas.
We think there’s a good chance Dallas leapfrogs Seattle, claiming the NFC's fifth seed as the top wild card. In that instance, they'll more than likely play the NFC South winner, potentially the Saints, a significantly easier opponent for a road playoff game.
Given how the Cowboys are valued in the betting market, it’s likely they'll close as road favorites for a potential wild-card game against the NFC South winner.
Should Dallas take care of business in the wild-card round, a matchup against the NFC top seed in the divisional round awaits. If that’s the Eagles, that might not be the worst thing for the Cowboys, as they nearly beat Philadelphia on the road in Week 9 and have plenty of familiarity going against them.
There’s also a chance the Lions earn the NFC's top seed, a team the Cowboys play in Week 17. That game could serve as a litmus test for a potential rematch in the playoffs. No matter who Dallas plays in a potential NFC Championship Game, it won't be easy, but as long as you're in the playoffs, you've got a fighting shot to make it.
If the NFC playoff picture unfolds similarly to what we just laid out, the Cowboys could make a push to the Super Bowl. As a result, a wager on Dallas to win the NFC at +430 yields some value.
Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds: To win Super Bowl (+1000)
If we’re recommending a wager on the Cowboys to win the NFC at +430, we’re also advising a smaller bet on Dallas to win the Super Bowl at +1000. While we’d love to project out their potential opponent in the Big Game to get a feel for the point spread, there’s a good chance that whoever the Cowboys would play, the spread would be around a field goal going either direction (+3 or -3).
Dak Prescott’s stable play, specifically his decisiveness in playing relatively clean football (17:6 TD-to-INT rate), boosts Dallas' chances of beating the league's best teams in the biggest game. Add in a reliable stop unit that's been the third-most efficient defense in the league relative to their expected points added per play numbers (-0.115), and the Cowboys can beat any team on a neutral field.
While some unfortunate playoff losses could hinder bettors from taking a chance on Dallas at +1000, they undoubtedly have a chance to win their sixth Super Bowl in franchise history.
