The NFL's most valuable franchise has the league's biggest bargain at quarterback. It's an anomaly that is likely to change soon.
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones says Dak Prescott, who has a $630,000 base salary this season, is "going to get extended," and the timetable is the upcoming offseason when the QB will have one year left on his rookie contract. The size of the extension will depend on how Prescott finishes his third NFL season.
The final five regular-season games this year, plus playoffs, will be the most important of Prescott's career. Millions of dollars are at stake.
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An interesting thing about Jones' statement on Prescott's future is that it was made when the Cowboys were sitting at 3-5 and had just lost a Monday night home game to the Titans; a game in which Prescott had two costly turnovers. Since then, Dallas (6-5) has won three straight and is now the odds-on favorite to emerge as NFC East champ for the second time in Prescott's three years as starter.
If that happens, and if Prescott, 25, continues to play as well as he did in the Thanksgiving day win over Washington, he'll have an excellent shot at joining the $25 million-plus-per-year club.
If things fall apart down the stretch for Prescott and the team, his market value will take a dip, and Jones' thinking about his future investment — or even the QB's job status — could change. The same goes for coach Jason Garrett and his staff. Jones also has said the coach is safe, but we know owners can change their minds.
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Such immense pressure on one player is nothing new to Prescott, as there are always high expectations of the QB for the franchise that has employed Roger Staubach, Troy Aikman and Tony Romo. That pressure had started to mount before and during what began as an up-and-down 2018 season.
Prescott, Dallas' fourth-round pick in 2016, won Rookie of the Year honors after leading the Cowboys to a 13-3 record in place of an injured Romo. He was greatly supported by the league's No. 2 rushing attack with fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliott and a superb offensive line. He was one of the rare rookie QBs ever to be selected to the Pro Bowl.
His second season, in which Elliott missed six games due to a suspension, was not so great. Age took its toll on Prescott’s top receivers, and his completion percentage dropped from 67.8 to 62.8. His turnovers increased from eight to 17 in a disappointing 9-7 season.
Fortunately for Prescott and the Cowboys, he has stepped up his game in recent weeks, with the addition of a No. 1 receiver in Amari Cooper certainly helping his cause. Prescott has three TD passes and no interceptions during the current winning streak.
Overall, Prescott has answered the challenge this season in terms of improved accuracy (from 62.8 percent last year to 65.2 percent) and turnovers (only nine through 11 games). He also is still a running threat, with 279 rushing yards and five TDs on the ground.
Prescott's low price tag over the past three years has allowed the Cowboys to spend big money elsewhere, including their offensive line with Pro Bowlers Zack Martin and Tyron Smith. But the time is near for that dynamic to change with one of the biggest raises in NFL history on the line.
It sets up as a fascinating negotiation.
The Cowboys can rightfully argue Prescott has benefited from a rushing attack that currently ranks sixth in the league while the passing offense ranks No. 28. His passer rating is on the rise but is a relatively low No. 21 in the league.
However, if QBs are ultimately judged on victories, here's a somewhat surprising stat that Prescott's agent will surely cite: The QBs with the most regular-season wins over the past three seasons are Tom Brady (32), Ben Roethlisberger (29) and a tie for third (28) between Drew Brees and Prescott.
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The contract to which Prescott and his agent will surely point is Jimmy Garoppolo's $27.5 million-per-year deal ($74 million reportedly guaranteed) he signed with the 49ers in February. Garoppolo had seven career starts at the time.
If I were Jerry and Stephen Jones (Cowboys executive VP and director of player personnel), I would need to see Prescott deliver another division title and provide competent play in the postseason, with his performance level staying close to that of his Thanksgiving game. At that point I would consider something in the neighborhood of the Garoppolo deal for Prescott, realizing the total value of the contract would be less if his 2019 salary of $720,000 remained intact. (But his cash would jump with a new signing bonus.)
If Prescott did not perform well the rest of the season, I would knock his deal down to fewer years and less money and include big incentives for future playoff success. I might even look harder at the incoming draft class to bring in some competition.
Quite the carrot is out there for Prescott to chase as he continues his run toward the playoffs and the QB pot of gold over the balance of the season.
Jeff Diamond is a former president of the Titans and former vice president/general manager of the Vikings. He was selected NFL Executive of the Year in 1998. Diamond is currently a business and sports consultant who also does broadcast and online media work. He makes speaking appearances to corporate/civic groups and college classes on negotiation and sports business/sports management. He is the former chairman and CEO of The Ingram Group. Follow Jeff on Twitter: @jeffdiamondNFL.
